I am sure that now, after the Russian disaster we have witnessed, you probably think that
Moscow has thrown all its military muscle into Ukraine.
And yes, in a way it has.
Russia has already deployed its main fighting forces in Ukraine, which, for example, has
led them to lose more than 2,000 tanks, representing more than half of all their operational tank
reserves.
And this is just one example.
However, despite this, at the same time we also come across news stories like this:
(US blames Russia's Wagner Group for worsening security in Mali.
– France 24)
And, of course, I'm sure you're wondering, I know what you're going to ask now!
What interest does Russia have in Mali?
I mean...
Russia is here... and Mali is here!!!!
I don't know, at first glance, it doesn't seem to make much sense.
What do the Russians care about what happens in Africa?
If you are long-time followers of VisualPolitik, you already know that Russia has tentacles
all around the world.
But...
Why are they in Africa right now?
Think about it: until 2022, Russia had a very clear area of influence in Central Asia and
the Caucasus.
However... one year later, all that power is fading away.
Kazakhstan is moving further and further away from the Russian sphere, and what about the
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
For decades, Russia has played the role of arbiter in this dispute.
But now it is not present nor is it expected to be.
What’s more, many countries that were once in Moscow's orbit are increasingly looking
to Beijing.
However, Africa remains on the Kremlin's agenda... and more specifically, on the agenda of the
Wagner group.
You already know that the Wagner Group is a private company, basically a private army
at Putin's service.
Its owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is a close friend of the president.
We are talking about a company that is having no problem throwing its men into Ukraine even
if it has meant throwing them headlong into a terrible slaughterhouse.
But they aren’t only in Ukraine!
They also have enough muscle for Africa.
And the question is why, and to what extent do African countries oppose this Russian influence?
Well the truth is that, unfortunately, many of these countries are so poor that they couldn’t
afford to repel invading forces, not even Wagner.
However, this is the most important question we can ask ourselves, is Russia the only power
with a presence in Africa?
Evidently not.
There is another European country that has never abandoned its imperial dreams...
Which country are we talking about?
Exactly!
France.
The VisualPolitik faithful will already know that France never fully gave up its former
colonies.
And you will also know that French colonialism was anything but kind.
We have even talked previously about the competition between France and China for influence in
Africa.
However, the truth is that the arrival of Russia has turned everything upside down.
Of course, you may ask, but really, how much influence can a group of Russian mercenaries
like the Wagners have?
Well, it is certainly not a trifling matter.
Look at this map: Although the Russian presence is not the only
reason why France still retains significant troops in Africa, the fact is that lately
this reason has become increasingly important.
To give you an idea, the troops that France deployed in the Sahel in 2013 today now total
more than 3,000 troops, and before the withdrawal from Mali at the end of last year they numbered
as many as 5,100.
Russia already has 3,000 mercenaries in Africa.
It is clear that there are fewer Russians than French...
But they are comparable figures.
Of course, we also have to rely on international forces such as the UN blue helmets [But, let's
be clear, the UN is not exactly a panacea when it comes to influence].
Be that as it may, one thing is indisputable: in terms of political influence, France remains
the largest foreign power in the region.
And certainly its presence is much greater than that of Russia: it has more military
bases, more contacts in the area and stronger economic ties.
However, where France used to be practically the only sheriff in the area, it is now contested
by two powers: China and Russia.
We have already discussed China's presence in Africa at length here on VisualPolitik.
But, in today's video, we are going to focus on Russia.
So the question then becomes: to what extent is French dominance in Africa crumbling?
What can France do to remain strong in the region?
Why might its presence be so important?
What interests does Russia have?
And what bearing does all this have for the war in Ukraine?
Today we are going to answer these questions, but first let's look at a bit of history.
(FRENCH COLONIALISM)
On VisualPolitik we have always been against colonialism, and surely today no one is going
to start saying: "Let's colonize India again!
Long live the colonies!".
Well, maybe there are some, but it certainly won't be us.
However, we should not forget that not all cases of colonialism have been the same.
There have been colonial empires that left some government structures in place and when
they left – either voluntarily or because they were thrown out – they did so completely.
This was, for example, the case of Spain with America.
However, our protagonist in this video, France, did just the opposite.
France arrived late to the first wave of colonization, you know, that of the American continent.
In spite of this, it managed to take over a good chunk of North America and, later,
significant territories in Southeast Asia.
However, it is not that period of the French empire that we usually remember as the most
prosperous in terms of domains, but rather that of the 19th century.
While Spain was going through a deep crisis, losing its last American colonies and the
Philippines in 1898, France was booming following the Berlin Conference of 1885.
It managed to position itself, along with the United Kingdom, as the largest colonial
empire in Africa.
While it is true that their first settlements on the continent date back to the mid-17th
century in Senegal and that they had already taken control of territories such as the Ivory
Coast, Gabon and Algeria between 1840 and 1850, it was not until 1885 that the French
empire reached its peak.
Suddenly, their dominance in Africa was giving the British a run for their money.
And do you know what?
dedicated to exploiting as many mineral resources as possible.
Not surprisingly, building institutions and infrastructure was not at the top of their
lists.
To be honest, they were there to exploit the resources, period.
They had no interest in developing their colonies beyond what was necessary for their extractive
machinery to operate at full capacity.
In fact, French colonial rule is especially remembered for being among the harshest, as
demonstrated, for example, by the massacres in the Algerian cities of Sétif and Guelma.
[Although, if you want a truly brutal empire, wait until you hear about the Belgian atrocities
in the Congo...
It's a topic we've already covered in a past video here on VisualPolitik].
However, everything began to change after World War II.
The United States and the Soviet Union, however much they differed, reached agreement on a
common point: the colonies had to disappear.
So...
No sooner said than done.
The UN created the Special Committee on Decolonization and the colonial empires began to be dismantled.
In this process, the United Kingdom left behind Nigeria and all its African colonies, Spain
did the same with Equatorial Guinea and its occupation of Morocco…
But what about France?
Well, the reality, VisualPolitik viewers, is that France had a hard time letting go
of the reins of their territories and, in fact, even today we can still see remnants
of what was its former empire.
This is the legal tender in 14 countries, previously pegged to the franc and now pegged
to the euro.
And where are the largest currency reserves of the CFA Franc held?
Exactly, in France!
In other words: France maintains enormous control over these economies.
If this is not a hangover from colonialism...
I don’t know what is!
And I know what many of you are thinking: Well, that's not so bad!
Having a currency pegged to the euro means that these countries have managed to avoid
hyperinflation.
And yes, you are right.
But France's control is not only limited to the economy.
France is also well known for supporting authoritarian governments.
And why, you may ask?
The answer lies in one word: mineral resources.
Basically, France supports authoritarian governments in exchange for France being given preference
in extracting natural resources.
Where do you think all the uranium for the famous French nuclear power plants comes from?
Well, mainly from Niger, a former French colony, where the Orano company has almost full control
of the mines.
So, when there have been protests against these authoritarian governments, France has
not hesitated to send its troops to control the situation, and they did so from the very
first moment, as happened during the 1964 coup d'état in Gabon.
A coup that took place only four years after the country won its independence from France.
In other words, "Don't worry, Gabon... you are now free... as long as you do exactly
what I want you to do!"
This is just one example, but in general it has been the usual behavior of a country that
has tended to roam freely in its former colonies, even after they became independent.
However, with the beginning of the new century, a new player began to steal France's thunder.
Listen up.
(THE NEW CHINESE FRIEND)
To no one's surprise, China, the Asian giant, has become a key player in Africa.
It's nothing unusual: Africa has the resources that China needs, and China has the economic
capacity to enable African countries to develop.
Or at least for them to be able to carry out major infrastructure projects.
What’s more, African markets have not yet fully blossomed so China has the opportunity
to be there when that happens to get its share of the pie and take advantage, for example,
of cheap labor.
So, both public and private companies in China began to take an interest in investing in
African countries.
Although, it must be said, there are precedents.
From the 1960s, with the first railroad line in Zambia, through to the Addis Ababa-Djibouti
connection completed in 2016, China had built more than 6,000 km, that’s over 3,700 miles,
of railroads in Africa by 2022.
And not only that, it has also invested in the construction of industrial parks such
as the one in Addis Ababa, hospitals, roads and much more.
Take a look: (Analysts: China expanding influence in Africa
via Telecom Network Deals.
– InfoBae)
Do you see the difference?
China doesn't just extract natural resources.
Apparently it also gives a lot of things in return.
China has helped African countries to be connected to the world, not to be isolated and instead
to receive real-time information.
Not only by investing in telecommunications infrastructure, but also by producing affordable
cell phones for their markets.
Naturally this also translates into political influence.
They have opened dozens of Confucius institutes where Chinese is taught.
In addition, they provide television broadcasting, which means that millions of Africans watch
pro-Xi Jinping TV programs.
But one thing is clear: China has offered Africa what France never did: the chance to
negotiate as equals.
Or, at least, not to be treated as subjects.
And, as you can imagine, this is bad news for France.
But, let's not fool ourselves either, the Chinese presence does not work miracles.
Africa still has many problems, and one of the most important is radicalism.
What are we talking about?
Well, pay attention.
(FRANCE, IN FREE FALL)
Until now, France has maintained its influence in Africa more or less discreetly.
Okay, yes...
It supported the occasional coup d'état, participated in covert missions, backed the
occasional authoritarian government... the usual.
But in 2013 there was a turning point: France re-entered the African political scene.
Why?
Because war had broken out in Mali.
In 2012, Mali had to start dealing with the Tuareg rebellion organized in the north of
the country by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad.
This movement, which has links to the jihadist groups Ansar red-Din and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb, began a harsh insurgency campaign against the central government of Mali.
They conquered more and more territory.
And in the end, Mali had no choice but to ask France for help.
This is how Operation SERVAL began, to which Paris assigned some 3,000 military personnel.
The intervention was initially a success: peace was agreed with the Tuareg in June 2013
and the then President, Hollande, was able to walk triumphantly through the streets of
Bamako, the capital of Mali.
In addition, the UN established a permanent peacekeeping mission: MINUSMA.
However, peace was short-lived and in September hostilities began again in the country, accelerating
the spread of jihadist terrorism throughout the region, a wave of terrorism that has hit
Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso particularly hard.
The situation got so out of hand that France had to send more troops.
Operation Serval gave way to Operation BARKHANE, which ended in November last year.
France needed to protect its resource-extracting companies such as Niger's uranium and Mali's
oil.
In other words, the French focused solely on fighting jihadism... in areas where natural
resources were present.
Problems soon arose.
The most important of these was probably the training of local armies.
At first glance there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with that, in fact it's even what you
might expect.
Well, guess what?
It turns out that it has become one of the biggest problems, just look at this graph:
As you can see, in 2020, in both Burkina Faso and Mali there were more civilian deaths at
the hands of national security forces than by the jihadists themselves.
And that is not unusual.
Think about it, ethnic conflicts are quite common in this part of the world.
Normally, the armies of each of these countries are dominated by ONE particular ethnic group.
Suddenly, France started to train and arm armies... which in turn were dominated by
one particular ethnic group.
These ethnic groups used (and still use) all this French aid to massacre the other ethnic
groups.
Do you need an example?
Burkina Faso.
The army is dominated by the MOSSI ethnic group, which did not hesitate for a second
to kill people of the FULANI and PEUL ethnic groups.
And what is the outcome when this happens?
The most predictable one, that those under attack look for someone to protect them, ... Like
the jihadists!
And this is how we enter a vicious circle where French aid translates into more violence...
and more jihadism.
Do you now understand why France does not have such a good image in these countries?
This explains why, in August 2022, Mali said: "Look, France...
thank you very much for your help but... how about you leave us alone and we will manage
on our own".
And, as you can imagine, the other neighboring countries are going in the same direction.
Check it out.
(Burkina Faso unrest: France agrees to pull its troops out.
– BBC)
At a time when France's image seems to be at rock bottom and confidence in this nation
is at an all-time low, the question is: who will step in to fill the void left by France?
I know what you are all thinking at this moment!
CHINA!
Right?
The Chinese friend, who treats Africans as equals, provides them with infrastructure
and telecommunications networks and even helps them to industrialize, right?
Well... no.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Here is the moment when it comes time for…
(THE RUSSIAN BEAR HUG)
Look at it, it's this one: Do you see anything that catches your eye?
That's right, what you're looking at crossed with the hoe is an AK-47, the most famous
Soviet assault rifle in history.
To be fair, although it is something out of the ordinary, it makes all the sense in the
world, after all this was the most popular weapon during their independence process.
And in these processes, the Soviet Union and its allies played an important role in the
not difficult to imagine that Russia could come to replace France in the region.
In fact, as we already mentioned at the beginning of the video, Russia has already set to work
through the mercenary group Wagner.
It started in Libya and Sudan in 2017 and today it has also reached Mozambique, Mali
and the Central African Republic.
But, you may be wondering, what is the importance of this?
Isn't it just another private company?
Well, yes, it is just another company providing a somewhat unusual service.
But there is something else behind this company, check it out:
("From Russia with love": A Putin ally mines gold and plays favorites in Sudan Backed by
the Kremlin, the shadowy network known as the Wagner Group is getting rich in Sudan
while helping the military to crush a democracy movement.
– NYTimes)
Exactly, VisualPolitik viewers, the Wagner Group is helping Putin to extract gold.
And not only in Sudan, in Mali they have exploitation rights over three other gold mines, and as
many others in the Central African Republic.
However, the main target has always been Burkina Faso, why?
Because it extracts 70 tons of gold annually, making it one of the largest producers in
Africa.
In other words, every year, Burkina Faso extracts as much gold as Denmark has in gold reserves.
And, not surprisingly, Putin is rubbing his hands together with news like this:
(Wagner Group allegedly given Burkina Faso mine in exchange for help fighting jihadi
extremists.
– ABC)
As you can imagine, it suits Putin just fine that the Wagner Group is extracting gold from
Africa in order to finance his war in Ukraine.
But this would not have been possible without the failure of France's fight against terrorism
in the region and the widespread discontent that Paris has created.
But, do you think that this discontent was caused by France alone?
Hasn't it had something to do with Russia?
Well, in part, yes.
France has done disastrously badly, that's true.
But Russia knew how to play its cards very well.
What card are we talking about?
History!
Kremlin propaganda has taken care to remind Africans who was on their side when they gained
independence from their colonial powers.
And the fact that this message has taken hold has been in part the responsibility of the
Wagner Group itself, which is also in charge of marketing campaigns in favor of Russia
in all these countries.
In fact, since the end of 2019, Facebook has had to close more than 300 accounts associated
with Prigozhin, Wagner's boss, who was spreading Russian propaganda in more than 12 African
countries.
So, what is clear is that while China is devouring France's economic ground, Russia is busy pushing
it aside in security matters.
So the question is...
Is France giving up so easily?
Well, let's take a look.
(A NECESSARY CHANGE OF COURSE)
By now it is clear that France's image in much of Africa is disastrous.
Admittedly, there have been times when it has been unfairly criticized, as when it withdrew
its troops from Mali altogether amid multiple accusations of abandoning the fight against
terrorism – even though it had been Mali itself that had driven the French out.
But, truth be told, Macron knows that the role France has played in Africa over the
past decades has often been reprehensible.
That is precisely why he is now redefining his strategy.
The Macron government has already set to work in Africa and has begun negotiating new agreements
with countries in the region.
In fact, it has already committed, from the beginning of 2022, to invest in the construction
of infrastructure like China does.
In other words, France intends to start doing now what other countries have already done
with their colonies in the past.
(France joins China in infrastructure projects.
– DW)
What’s more, in view of the failure of the anti-terrorist operation in the Sahel, France
wants to avoid at all costs such a prolonged military stay in the future.
For this reason, it has offered to promote the construction of military academies in
Côte d'Ivoire and Djibouti, among other countries.
Not only that, France has also offered logistical, intelligence and combat support in specific
situations.
Macron seems to have understood that the strategy being pursued by his predecessors was not
working.
France's image was being tarnished more than necessary in Africa.
In a way, the new measures he is proposing are very close to the classic soft power we
have already talked about here on VisualPolitik.
In other words, less stick and more carrot.
However, they may prove to be insufficient in the face of a Chinese partner that has
shown African countries a more ambitious path, and a Russia apparently more capable of fighting
terrorism, if only to get their hands on gold and diamond mines, of course...
But the Russians know how to get along with satraps very well, even better than the French
do.
The fact is that France will have to adapt to a multipolar Africa in which it will no
longer be the clearly dominant power.
But now the questions are for all of you: to what extent is France willing to change
its treatment of Africa after 200 years?
Will it be able to maintain its influence?
How can Russia fill the gaps left by the French army?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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