Welcome to the climate and water outlook for February to April 2022.
La Nina is at or near its peak and likely contributing to the wetter
than average outlooks for parts of northern and eastern Australia
and while in south eastern Australia we may see lower than average
temperatures in the coming months, it is likely
to be warmer than average for many other areas.
But first, let's look at the recent conditions.
January saw lower than average rainfall for Queensland,
the Top End and the west coasts of Tasmania and Western Australia.
Central and South Australia, on-the-other-hand,
received higher than average rainfall for January.
For example, Kimba, South Australia, received more than three-times its
entire average summer worth of rainfall in the 3 days ending the 24th of January.
South-eastern parts of Australia also saw higher than average
rainfall in January, with repeated thunderstorm events throughout the month.
This extra rain in the south and east has
contributed to numerous flooding events in South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria.
Maximum temperatures were above average for much of the west,
northern two thirds, and parts of south-east Australia.
Perth had 6 consecutive days at or above 40 °C,
the highest run for any month in 123 years.
This is the equal longest run for Australian capital
cities, matching Adelaide in 2009 and 1908.
Minimum temperatures were also above average
across most of the country, with high night-time
temperatures and high dew points, resulting
in an unusually muggy January in many areas.
The higher-than-average temperatures mean that Australian soil moisture
has generally dried out over the past month,
though soils are still wetter than average along the east coast and in the top end.
Water storage levels are much higher across the
south-east coast (of NSW and Victoria), as well as
the Murray Darling Basin and the south-west coast
of the country, compared with this time last year.
So, what will influence our climate in the coming months?
The La Nina in the tropical Pacific is near or at its peak,
and for now, continues to influence Australia's rainfall patterns.
La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall during summer
across much of eastern Australia
This influence continues but is likely to return to a neutral state in early Autumn.
The influence of La Nina can be seen in the outlook for February to April,
with above average rainfall predicted for eastern Australia.
Central Western Australia on the other hand,
is likely to have below average rainfall.
For January to March, high streamflows are expected at most forecast locations
in the eastern mainland, with near-median
streamflows at many other locations.
For maximum temperatures, the outlook indicates
cooler than average days likely for the
south-east, and warmer than average days likely
for the west, south, and the north-east coast.
Nights are very likely to be warmer than average across
most of the country during the three months February to April.
Our extremes outlook indicates the likelihood of falling in the highest 20%
of February to April periods. This shows an
increased chance of unusually high minimum
temperatures for Australia, especially across the north, west and Tasmania.
High night-time temperatures contribute to potential health risks
during heatwave events, as the body doesn't have an opportunity to cool down.
Much of the country experienced at least a low-intensity heatwave during
January – and more heatwaves may be on
the horizon before summer is through.
Remember to always follow the advice of local emergence services.