BUT THE JOBS YOU KNOW WHEN YOU
HAVE 3.6% UNEMPLOYMENT, THAT
IS THAT IS -- LOWEST IN 50
YEARS.
MARIA: WHAT ABOUT WITH JAMIE
DIMON SAID IN ANNUAL LETTER
YESTERDAY HE WROTE IN ANNUAL
LETTER CURRENTLY CRISIS NOT
OVER EVEN WHEN BEHIND THERE
WILL BE REPERCUSSIONS FROM IT
THIS MORNING UBS CHAIRMAN
SEEKING AT GENERAL MEETING
SAYING UBS CREDIT SUISSE
INTEGRATION WILL TAKE UP TO
FOUR YEARS YOUR THOUGHTS AS
THIS MARKET 135?
>> 145 IS NUMBER ON ADP
CROSSING 145,000 JOBS, CREATED
IN MONTH OF MARCH THAT IS
BELOW EXPECTATIONS, THE
ESTIMATE WAS 200 TO 210,000 WE
GOT 145,000 JOBS.
MARKET IS DIGESTING THIS HOW
DO YOU READ THIS REPORT.
LIKE I SAID THERE IS HOLES IN
THE BOAT AND BOAT IS STARTING
TO GO DOWN, SO GOING BACK TO
WHAT JAMIE DIMON SAID MARIA
JAMIE DIMON IS A VERY SMART
MAN, AND IF YOU DIDN’T HAVE
FDIC THE TREASURY THE FED
DEPARTMENT SAVE SVB, RIGHT AS
SWELL AS SIGNATURE BANK I
THINK THINGS WOULD BE A LOT
WORST LIKE EMT YOU SEE A
JUNKIE ON SIDE OF THE ROAD
GIVE HIM NARCAN TO BRING TO
LIFE HOW MANY MORE DO WE HAVE
FOR THE REST OF THE BANKS I
THINK MORE CRACKS YOU SEE
FUTURES GOING DOWN A LITTLE
BIT MORE, WERE FLAT SLIGHTLY
GREEN THIS MORNING I THINK WE
COULD HAVE MORE VOLATILITY
AHEAD.
MARIA: EXPECTATION HAS BEEN,
JAMES, THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE THIS INFORMANT STORY
WEAKEN.
JAMES: WE SAW FEBRUARY JOLTS
NUMBER 9.9 MILLION JOBS NOT AS
GREAT AS 12 HE WILL HAVE THAT
IT HIT A RECORD LAST SPRING
PRETTY GREAT HISTORICALLY
ALMOST FOUR MILLION ABOVE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE LOOKING FOR
WORK, SO, STILL SEEMS LIKE
EVEN IF NOT AS GOOD, A VERY
GOOD JOBS ENVIRONMENT.
>> JOBS ENVIRONMENT BY 5%
THOUGHT COMING IN 10.4 CAME IN
9.9 STARTING TO SEE A TREND
SLOWLY BACK UP, WE WERE YOU
KNOW JOBS WAS AT 80 MILES PER
HOUR, NOW WE’RE DEALING BACK
BEING 50 MILES PER HOUR,
56-YEAR LOWS FIRST COMES THE
ECONOMY WITH CRACKS THEN GOING
THE JOBS MARKET, EVERY COMPANY
FROM NEW YORK TO L.A. TO
LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS LAYING
OFF EMPLOYEES JUST GOING TO BE
A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE.
JAMES: I DID WANT TO KWAERL
REQUEST SILICON VALLEY BANK
EXAMPLE A GROUP OF PEOPLE
READY TO TAKE LOSSES WOULD
HAVE TAKEN MODESTY LOSSES THE
WORLD WOULD HAVE GONE ON OR DO
YOU THINK TRIGGERED A CRISIS.
>> I THINK FOOLISH TO SAY
ONE-OFF EXAMPLE SMALL REGIONAL
BAEJS IN BARONS CRE COULD BE
NEXT SHOE TO DROP, IN NEW YORK
LOOK HOW MANY VACANT BUILDINGS
THERE ARE.
MARIA: I’VE BEEN WORRIED
ABOUT COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
SO FAR WE HAVEN’T SEEN
SIGNIFICANT CRACKS YOU ARE
RIGHT ISSUE TO LOOK AT.
IS AMAZING STAT FROM EARLIER
REPORT WITH JEFF FLOCK SHOWING
30%, VACANCY IN TRIEM SHOPPING
DISTRICT OF CHICAGO, BUT NOT
WITH STANDING 145K.
>> FEBRUARY REVISED --
>> ACTUALLY HIGHER, THAT IS A
LITTLE BIT THAT SOFT ERNST A
LITTLE BIT.
>> HOW DO YOU RECONCILE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN, THE
PERCEIVED STRENGTH OF THE JOBS
MARKET, AND CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE?
WITH THE TALK OF A RECESSION?
>> I THINK JOBS IS ONE IT IS
IMPORTANT COMPONENT AT THE END
OF THE DAY, IT IS.
HOWEVER, I THINK AT THE END OF
THE DAY IT IS A LAGGING
INDICATOR, YOU CAN YOU CAN GO
TO GROCERY STORE GO TO
COMMERCIAL BUILDING TO RETAIL
BUILDING, AND MY HEADQUARTERS
IN LARGER BUILDING LONG ISLAND
WE HAVE MULTIPLE, BECOMING
VACANT I THINK YOU HAVE TO SEE
WHAT IS GOING ON, YOU HAVE TO
HAVE A LITTLE CLAIRVOYANCE
SIXTH SENSE WHERE WE’RE GOING
I THINK FOOLHARDY TO SAY A
RAIN BOWS AND BUTTERFLIES
RIGHT NOW YOU HAVE THIRD --
JUST HAPPENED TWO WEEKS AGO,
AND IF THEY DIDN’T STEP IN,
WOULD BE A LOT WORSE, I THINK
AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK
BETWEEN A STRONG JOBS MARKET
RIGHT NOW, IS THE ONLY LIFE
RAFT ON A SINKING SHIP, SO --
MARIO.
>> IF I MAY GIVEN HOW
CONCERNED YOU SIGNED ABOUT
ECONOMY BANKS, ET CETERA, HOW
MUCH CASH HAVE YOU RAISED FOR
YOUR INVESTORS SO THAT THEY
STAY CLEAR OF IT.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
I THINK THE BEST TRADE ON WALL
STREET WHEN I WAS HERE TWO
MONTHS AGO TREASURY BONDS,
RIGHT 5 1/4% EQUITY RISK
PREMIUM WAS AT A DECADE LOW IT
WAS FREE MONEY GO OUT 12
MONTHS YOU GET 5 1/4, OH AND
STATE INCOME TAX FREE WHAT
HAPPENED IN FIXED INCOME
MARKET WILL YIELDS RETRACED
20% TWO-YEAR TREASURY MARCH 8,
YIELDING 5.1% NOW YIELDING
APPROXIMATELY.
>> 3 1/2.
>> YEAH, JUST UNDER 4% 3.8, SO
THAT IS A MAJOR CATALYST NOT
TALKING TO EX-GIRLFRIEND
EITHER WENT TO TREASURY THE
ALTERNATIVE NOW SHIFTING BACK
A LITTLE BIT OF A SEE-SAW THE
END OF THE DAY FUNDAMENTALLY
SOUND COMPANIES PAYING