You can feel it in the air.
You can see it in the changing of our leaves.
Winter is coming, and Storm
team two has taken a hyperlocal,
in-depth look into this
year's Winter Weather Outlook.
We have a member of Storm Team 2
positioned in each of our four zones
that we forecast for every day.
We're going to visit each one of them
and learn about what winter could look
like and be specific to each zone.
Are you ready to find out what this winter
can bring to where you live? Let's go.
So here we are in Niagara County at
Whirlpool State Park to talk to Maria.
So I'm here with Maria
at a very special place.
To her, this park in Niagara
County means a lot to you.
You spend a lot of time here,
a lot growing up.
And so with this beauty and
the fall colors, my goodness,
what are you thinking about
this upcoming winter here?
There's so many microclimates
in Western New York.
You drive 20 miles South of Buffalo.
You have all the snow you could ever ask for,
and you drive 20 miles north of Buffalo,
and Niagara County sees
relatively little snow.
As compared to Buffalo and
certainly the South towns.
So I ended up numbers for both Buffalo
and Niagara Falls and took a look
and on average over 21 years you can
count on Niagara County receiving
about 20 inches less than Buffalo
as far as snowfall goes on average.
So if we're thinking of an average snow
in Buffalo's about 94 to 97 inches,
doing your math would give Niagara County
or Niagara Falls. What do you think?
65 to 75 inches for this year, if that's
the number we're going with, right?
And given that we're dealing
with this La Nina winter,
we will get some of those cold
shots of winter air from the north,
which means less snow,
but still we can get some impactful
snow look, none of this is written
in pen, OK? It's all variable.
But if you're looking at averages,
those are the averages
that I found. All
right, now we're off to our second zone.
We're going to go meet up
with a lease in Buffalo.
We're here. You know,
what can make this winter interesting is
we're coming into a third year La Nina,
3 La Nina years in a row.
That's only happened twice in recorded
history, and each of those produced
a very different kind of winter.
It will be something to watch.
Also, this La Nina seems to
be as strong as last year's,
which means it could have similar
impacts on our winter here in Buffalo.
I'm here with the lease right Hoyt
Lake in Delaware Park to talk about.
Our winter here in Buffalo this year,
what do
you well and you know last year
Buffalo loved the snow with over 97
inches falling in the city and in fact
1/3 of that came from 2 record lake.
Effectively they sent daily
snowfall records and when we think
about each winter a year to year,
you can't rule out some lake effect events.
But I really think that we could
see some bigger synoptic snows from
bigger weather systems and keeping
in mind that third year La Nina,
we could also see some cold air
outbreaks as we have previously seen.
With those two third year La Ninas.
But As for snow,
I think we could see just as much
this winter with about 85 to 95
inches of snow falling here in
Buffalo. Hey, thanks, Elise.
You know, she brought up lake effect snow,
so let's go next to where a lot of
lake effect snow falls every year.
Well, we made it to the South towns
where historically this region gets
a little more snow than other spots.
So we're in the village of Hamburg
at Carl Lambs childhood home,
not this one, the one over there.
Thanks for inviting us here.
What do you think this winter is going
to be like here for the South town zones?
You know, it definitely was kind of an
interesting winter last year because it was
really dry for December and then finally.
In January, we got some significant snow
and so we're anticipating a similar pattern,
but this snow blower did not
get a lot of action last year.
It still looks like it looks
brand new in mint condition,
but I do expect us to have a December
snow that does feature some sizable
accumulation a little earlier in the season.
And then I do expect it to be overall
a little wetter and a little cooler,
give us a a snowfall range that you
think if on average the South towns.
Anywhere between, let's say 100
and 110 inches of snow a year.
How do you think we're gonna do compared to
average? I think we're
pretty much right on average.
It's going to look a little different
in terms of when it actually falls,
but I do expect us to be right around
95 to 100 inches of snow this year.
So it's the South towns because it could
be really snowy for areas in Springville.
Just down the 219 and we get
spared a little bit here,
but always worth watching. Hey,
thanks a lot, Carl.
You know, he mentioned.
That area is just South of
here and get a lot more snow.
Of course, we're talking
about the Southern Tier.
We're actually going to go to
the location in the Southern
Tier that historically gets
more snow than anybody else.
So Carl and Elise both talked about
temperature and how we could have
an effect if there's an early start
to winter on lake effect snow.
So where did we go to find Lake effect snow?
Of course, the Southern Tier and the
snowiest place historically in the Southern
Tier. Kevin, what's up, brother?
We made it to Perrysburg.
Welcome to the jungle. The jungle.
This is on the way down.
Welcome to the Southern Tier.
But this is where more
snowfalls than anyplace else.
Why are we here? And what's the
importance in the Southern Tier? Here,
the challenge of the Southern Tier.
Geographically,
it's the largest of our four zones.
Yeah, it has the most variability, too.
You know, you think of a Chautauqua
Ridge regularly gets doubled.
But Buffalo does, right?
You go farther inland,
only in Allegheny County,
less than Buffalo does.
So it can be quite challenging
where we stand right now.
They average 200 to 250
inches of snow a year
if the lake
were to freeze over soon.
This could happen.
That could affect totals here.
And that's why I think Perrysburg
is gonna reclaim its title.
Last year, it was not the snow.
No, it wasn't. It was Warsaw.
It was Springville.
A couple years before that,
I think Perrysburg regains his title,
as it does, you know,
about 50% of the years as the
snow capital of Western New York.
How much do you think they're going to
get across the Southern Tier this winter?
Well, I'll say oleane lesba,
75 inches at Jamestown,
100 inches, elkville, 150.
And for Perrysburg, I'm going 217.
Why 2? Even why 17?
Why for Josh Allen, here we go,
217 inches from Perrysburg.
Maybe he can hurdle over some
of the snow banks up here.
Hey, thanks everyone.
Now, if you remember,
last year's winter weather
forecast worked out pretty well.
And this winter could be pretty interesting,
too. There you can see in our
forecast from our Niagara County,
Orleans County zones down to Buffalo,
the South towns and of
course the Southern Tier.
This winter could be a fun one.
And of course, in the spring,
we'll see how we did.
I'm meteorologist Patrick
Hammer from Storm Scene 2.