I HAD TO DO IT.
I DIDN'T WANT TO DO THE SEGMENT.
I DEFINITELY DID NOT WANT TO DO THIS SEGMENT.
THIS IS ABOUT THE WARNINGS THAT I GAVE THE DEMOCRATIC
ESTABLISHMENT, THE MEDIA, ABOUT DONALD TRUMP.
MOST IMPORTANTLY AT THE END WE WILL TALK ABOUT WHY THIS
MATTERS GOING FORWARD.
BACK IN JULY AFTER THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION
WHEN EVERYBODY THOUGHT HILLARY CLINTON HAS A BIG LEAD AND IS
IN GREAT SHAPE, I SOUNDED A WARNING ON ABC'S THIS WEEK.
LET'S WATCH.
RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT IT-
I HAVE HILLARY CLINTON WINNING EVERY SWING STATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTH CAROLINA.
I DID THE STATES, I DID NOT LOOK AT THE NUMBERS AHEAD OF TIME.
I GOT TO 269 -269.
I STARTED WITH THE OBAMA/ROMNEY.
I HAVE TRUMP AT 279, 259.
WAIT A MINUTE.
LISTEN, IN HIS LIFE HE HAS HAD A GREAT TRACK RECORD OF
FAILURE, EVERYTHING LIKE THAT.
BUT HE IS A POPULIST CANDIDATE WHEN THE COUNTRY IS ANGRY AND
YOU HAVE RUN THE MOST ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE WE'VE
EVER SEEN AGAINST HIM.
IT WAS A TERRIBLE IDEA BY THE DEMOCRATS
TO SUPPORT HILLARY CLINTON.
YOU THINK HE'S GOING TO WIN?
I AM VERY WORRIED THAT IF THE DEMOCRATS ARE NOT REALLY
WORRIED THAT IN THIS POPULIST TIME DONALD TRUMP WILL HAVE AN
EXCELLENT CHANCE TO WIN, THEY ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
WELL, IT TURNS OUT THEY WERE COMPLETELY WRONG.
ME BEING RIGHT IS NOT ANYWHERE AS RELEVANT AS THEM BEING WRONG.
WE DIDN'T TELL YOU THERE WAS AN ICEBERG STRAIGHTAHEAD BECAUSE
WE WANTED YOU TO RUN STRAIGHT INTO IT.
WE TOLD YOU ABOUT THE ICEBERG BECAUSE WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE
YOU STEERED AWAY FROM IT.
BY THE WAY THE ELECTORAL VOTE AS IT STANDS
NOW IS 279 to 228.HIS
NUMBER WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN WHAT I SUGGESTED.
EVEN I DIDN'T THINK HE WAS GOING TO PICK UP WISCONSIN.
THAT WAS SURPRISING TO ME.
LET'S GIVE CONTEXT HERE.
I DIDN'T ALWAYS GET IT RIGHT AT ALL.
THIS THEME WAS THE SAME, THIS IS A VERY CLOSE ELECTION, WATCH
OUT.
I
DIDN'T LOOK TO DO THE MATH AS I WAS GOING ALONG, I JUST LOOKED
AT THE POLLING, A COMBINATION OF MY EXPERIENCE ETC.,
AND I PUT THE STATES IN A DIFFERENT CATEGORY THAN I
TABULATED IT AT THE END TO SEE WHO WOULD WIN.
AS IT TURNS OUT IF I AM RIGHT ABOUT ALL THAT, HILLARY
CLINTON IN A RAZOR THIN VICTORY, 272, 266.
IT DOESN'T GET ANY CLOSER THAN THAT.
IT TURNS OUT SHE DID NOT WIN, BUT IT WAS A CLOSE ELECTION.
WHAT I TALKED ABOUT IN THE CLUB A LOT WAS MY EXPERIENCES.
THERE IS A POPULIST MOOD HERE, WHEN THAT HAPPENS AND
THEY ARE PULLING LIKELY VOTERS YOU ARE NOT GETTING ALL THE
VOTERS YOU WOULD NORMALLY GET BECAUSE THERE IS A GREAT
NUMBER OF REASONS FOR THAT.
THERE IS AN EXCITEMENT LEVEL ON ONE SIDE, A LACK OF EXCITEMENT
ON THE OTHER SIDE.
PEOPLE THAT DON'T NORMALLY VOTE COMING OUT.
BY THE WAY, LET'S BE FURTHER FAIR TO ME, I HAD ALSO GIVEN
THIS GIANT CAVEAT BEFORE THAT PREDICTION.
I'VE GOT TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS.
OFTENTIMES WHEN I DO A PREDICTION ON ANY GIVEN ISSUE
I DO IT WHEN I SAY I BELIEVE I KNOW, AND HERE IS MY ROCK
SOLID PREDICTION.
THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE.
THIS IS HEY, WE'VE GOT TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION LET
ME GIVE YOU MY BEST GUESS.
THIS IS AN INCREDIBLY VOLATILE ELECTION, THE MOST I HAVE EVER
SEEN.
DO NOT WRITE IT IN STONE.
THIS IS A SNAPSHOT OF WHAT I THINK THE ELECTION LOOKS LIKE
TODAY.
I THINK I WAS AMONG THE VERY FEW PEOPLE NOT WRITING IT DOWN
IN STONE.
VOLATILE, WENT UP AND DOWN.
PART OF THE REASON FOR THAT IS A SENSE OF WHERE THE COUNTRY IS.
I HAVE AN ADVANTAGE THAT THE REST OF THE PUNDITS DON'T
HAVE, I HAVE YOU GUYS.
IN ESSENCE I TALK TO YOU GUYS
NONSTOP.
I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE ONE YOUTUBE COMMENT AND SAY THAT IS
THE
DIRECTION THE COUNTRY IS GOING.
BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE ENTIRETY OF THE COMMENTS WE
GET, AND I HAVE AN OPEN MIND ñ
I AM TALKING TO REAL FOLKS, THEY ARE PISSED.
THOSE PENDANTS IN NEW YORK ALMOST NEVER SEE THOSE GUYS.
THE REALITY IS WHEN YOU LOOK AT THEM AND YOU SENSE THEIR
HOPELESSNESS.
THERE IS A FACEBOOK VIDEO I DID RIGHT BEFORE THE RNC.
I SAID I AM WALKING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF OHIO, THESE PEOPLE
ARE NOT VOTING FOR HILLARY CLINTON.
THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME I REALLY STARTED RINGING THE BELL.
I WROTE ABOUT IT AT THE TIME.
THE REASON THE PRESS TALKED ABOUT IT WAS BECAUSE WHAT A
CRAZY OUTLIER.
AGAIN, I HAVE TO EMPHASIZE ONE LAST TIME, IT IS NOT THAT I AM
RIGHT IT IS THAT THEY ARE IN A BUBBLE AND THEY CAN'T SEE
STRAIGHT.
TO THEM THE ESTABLISHMENT IS AWESOME BECAUSE THEY ARE THE
ESTABLISHMENT.
WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR THE
MAINSTREAM MEDIA, IT IS MY JOB TO STRAIGHTEN THAT OUT.
NEXT TIME WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING YOU KNOW THAT
I AM NOT COMING AT IT FROM A BIAS.
I AM EXPLAINING MY PERSPECTIVE AND EXPLAINING FACTS THAT BACK
IT UP.
THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION, THAT IS THE BUBBLE I WAS
SCREAMING AGAINST.
LISTEN TO WHAT I SAID ONE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION?
NUMBER ONE, HUFF POST POLLING LAST I LOOKED THEY WERE AT
98.4% CHANCE FOR HILLARY CLINTON TO WIN.
I FIND THAT PREPOSTEROUS.
ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS.
PEOPLE THAT LOOK AT THE POLLS AND SAY BASED ON OUR
CALCULATIONS AND ON OUR READING TO COME UP WITH DIFFERENT
NUMBERS.
AND IT WAS RIDICULOUS BECAUSE THEY LIVE IN THIS BUBBLE.
WHEN I TELL YOU DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE OF THE MAINSTREAM
MEDIA THERE IS A REASON FOR THAT.
THEY CAN'T SEE STRAIGHT.
THEY CAN'T SEE YOUR ANGER BECAUSE THERE IS NO ANGER
AROUND THEM.
A LOT OF FOLKS AND THOSE TWO CITIES, THEY ARE DOING WELL.
ONE OF THE RICHEST COUNTIES IN THE COUNTRY IS RIGHT OUTSIDE
OF DC.
THEY ARE ALL DOING WONDERFUL.
THAT IS WHY THEY CAN'T UNDERSTAND YOUR PAIN, AND IT
SOMETIMES GETS MISDIRECTED AS IT DID TOWARDS TRUMP.
THAT IS WHY WE SAID HEY, IF THE COUNTRY IS IN A POPULIST MOOD,
GO WITH A POPULIST CANDIDATE NOT WITH THE MOST ESTABLISHMENT
AND STATUS QUO CANDIDATE WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WAS
COMPLETELY WRONG.
IT IS SUPER RELEVANT TO THE FUTURE.
LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED, DONALD
TRUMP IS PRESIDENT OF THE
UNITED STATES AND WE HAVE THIS REALITY SHOW CLOWN BECAUSE
THEY WERE OVERCONFIDENT.
I SAW A COUPLE OF POLLS THAT CONFIRMED MY OWN BIAS AND I AM
OFF TO THE RACES.
IT WAS ACTUALLY THOSE GUYS THAT HAVE THE BIAS.
WE TRIED TO PLAY IT STRAIGHT FOR YOU HERE BECAUSE WHETHER WE
WANT SOMETHING, OR YOU DON'T, YOU HAVE TO DEAL WITH REALITY.
I DIDN'T WANT DONALD TRUMP TO BE PRES.,
BUT I WAS WORRIED IT MIGHT HAPPEN BECAUSE I SAW THE
HANDWRITING ON THE WALL THEY REFUSED TO LOOK AT.
DON'T MAKE THAT MISTAKE AGAIN, DON'T DO IT.
IF WE ARE GOING TO GO POPULIST, AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE, YOU
HAVE TO GIVE THEM A POPULIST OPTION ON THE LEFT OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GO RIGHT AND IT WILL WIND UP IN DISASTER.