I have been really dissapointed with the 4680 progress obviously, and I am pretty sure every
Tesla shareholder has.
Tesla have not delivered close to their promises.
So much so, that many investors aren't even thinking about them any more, and instead
trying to evaluate Tesla's future without them, and what the company would be worth
as a result, and how fast it can grow, without these cells that had nearly 10 times the production
output per capital.
It is also the only cell in the world that is capable of ramping up to extreme production
that can also offer long range, or be used in larger heavier vehicles.
In fact it is currently the only cell in the world, that has the potential to make a serious
impact in global transportation.
But these dreams somewhat died when we discovered how low an output Tesla were producing.
Not only that, but the energy density too, on par with the cheapest cells on the market,
LFP.
Yet 4680s are supposed to be revolutionary new cells that will be lower cost and the
highest energy density.
Tesla even started a new line in Texas, and we hoped there might be some progress there,
but it doesn't seem to be happening particularly fast yet, give the current output we just
got told.
But these cells are essential for the Cybertruck, at least thats what many of us thought.
Although it is possible the Cybertruck could use 2170 cells, but that would mean we forgo
the structural battery pack, and on Battery Day, Elon told us just how important a structural
battery pack is.
And we expect the Cybertruck to have the latest and greatest.
So much new technology Elon says, but since the reveal, we haven't really been told about
any of it, except possibly the 48V electrical system.
Anyway, it looks like Tesla will be using 4680 cells after all, but just not the ones
we thought.
It sounds like another line at Texas is going to get going, except instead of producing
4680 cells, it will be producing Cyber cells.
According to Tesla these cells are 10% more energy dense, which is absolutely outstanding,
and reminds us again of some of the truly amazing engineering feats that Tesla do accomplish
at times, albeit often very late.
This takes them to energy density at parity of the 2170 cells.
So what you might think, we were promised much more, how is this at all impressive?
Well what is impressive is that Tesla have reached this energy density without using
any silicon in the anode.
Silicon means you can increase the level of lithium in the cell, and thus offer a higher
energy density.
It does however mean that the cell will degrade faster too.
So actually all these 4680 cells currently likely do not degrade particularly fast and
possibly could get a million miles or so and still a reasonable range.
Anyway, the more I think about this then the more impressive it is.
Not only that, as we are just talking about the energy density of the cells, not the actual
battery.
Remember one of the biggest deals about the 4680 cells, cell to vehicle integration, thats
right, the cells are the structure of the pack.
This means that the energy density would indeed be higher with these 4680 cells, than the
2170 cells at the pack level.
Now Tesla have not even started this line yet, therefore that might mean that the Cybertruck
isn't going to be ready until this cyber cell line has reached a reasonable capacity, not
high volume production or anything, just perhaps 1m cells a week or something, enough for about
1000 Cybertrucks, if that even, at least to start with.
Therefore I am not expecting deliveries for the Cybertruck to start until Q4 now.
Unless Tesla launch with the other 4680 cells, and perhaps can announce two versions of the
truck, perhaps a dual motor with the 4680 cells, and a tri motor with these cyber cells.
Tesla can deliver the dual motor first, and then say in Q4 we will be selling the longer
range version shortly after.
This way, Tesla get to launch early and also get to show a higher spec version.
If we are talking this level of energy density then depending on how many cells Tesla decide
to pack into the battery pack, we could see up to 400 miles of range.
And Perhaps about 330 miles for the other version.
One version that beats Rivian on range, the other version that beats the Ford Lightning
on range and price.
Tesla would totally destroy the competition when it comes to electric pick up trucks.
And one major difference Tesla have, is that when they do eventually ramp up production,
well the cost of the vehicle will be so low to produce, there will actually be this thing
that other EV companies don't seem to care about, called profit.
Alright so Tesla have clearly not given up on the 4680 cells, and hopefully still see
them as a possibility to ramp in the near future.
And as we know a 4680 ramp changes everything.
It means Texas and Berlin can hit capacity, and reduce costs significantly.
It means Tesla can offer longer range vehicles, or vehicles with smaller batteries at much
lower costs and see more profit.
It means that the semi truck factory can break ground, as they know they are going to be
capable of making cells that go into the semi.
It means that Tesla can ramp to hundreds of GWh a year of cell capacity.
The biggest take away for me from this, was the fact that Tesla can get the cell energy
density to the same as the 2170 without using the silicon in the anode or the new cathode.
Therefore it likely just the current cathode, which is using dry battery electrode process
already, and the fact the volume to surface area ratio is higher for the 4680, requiring
less casing for the equivalent size cells.
Hence part of the reason Tesla made the diameter of these cells so much more than previous
cells, and was able to do this due to the tabless design.
Now the additional energy density we might see by adding silicon into the anode will
depend on just how much silicon they add.
Silicon could add between 10 to 30% more energy density, depending on the type of silicon
used and the amount they use.
But even 10% more would mean we are at around 290 wh/Kg energy density.
This is starting to get really high.
I was obviously disappointed with the tear downs we saw from the 4680, the fact they
were still using cobalt in the cathode, and the fact the energy density was similar to
only LFP.
But now the fact we are talking about density improving, despite being so far behind what
Battery Day had promised, gives us some hope.
And did used to say back then, even if it takes Tesla years until they solve 4680s,
it will still be worth it, and be a huge deal.
With costs savings of around $3,000 just for the cells per vehicle, obviously makes a huge
difference.
Then the fact it allows for a structural battery pack, and front and rear castings in addition
to all of that.
It really is starting to bring back some of the old feelings I had towards the future
potential of these cells.
Then we have the cathodes for the 4680 cells too.
With the new cathode factory, now apparently I am speculating here, but I am not the only
one, but the new cathode factory could possibly be for the dry battery electrode process.
They went to a lot of effort with this factory, and presumably it was an after thought, or
realization of how much more complex the process ended up being.
I don't know if they are still going to be using cobalt in these cathodes either, and
I am not even sure we will see them in 4680 cells until sometime next year.
But when silicon is added in the anode, along with these new cathodes, then I think we must
be at around 300 Wh/kg.
Making this the most energy dense cell for vehicles in mass production.
This is indeed very exciting, but for starters we haven't even seen the cyber cell in production
yet, let alone tested the energy density of the future cell, nor the cathode or silicon
and we don't know how long that may take.
But it is good to see the specs potentially improving from being less energy dense than
2170, to more energy dense.
However, even if Tesla did get that far, it's not a big enough deal, until they can demonstrate
that they can ramp up the production, that is the most important factor.
This is exciting, but there is still a long way ahead, hopefully Tesla can see a path
to achieving it some time next year.
I mean they need enough of these cells for the Cybertruck, so they have to get them sorted
one way
or another.