Hey there meteorologist Ryan Shl
with a quick tropical weather update.
It's currently Monday, August 21st, 2023.
We have a lot going on.
A busy Atlantic picture you
can see from Emily Gert,
Franklin and Tropical Depression
Nine are potential tropical cyce
nine in the central Gulf of Mex.
Now these three out in the
Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.
Emily and Gert likely not going
to impact land anytime soon.
Most likely will be open
storms in the Atlantic Basin.
However, Franklin the Caribbean
Sea will impact the Dominican
Republic later on this week,
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday,
providing rough seas,
heavy rain and some tropical wer
through the middle part of this week.
Otherwise the Atlantic most storms remaining
out at sea and no immediate threats to land.
With these particular systems
now going forward in time,
this is a forecast model.
Through this weekend and even
parts of early next week,
the Atlantic will remain somewhat active.
We'll continue to see tropical
waves that try to organize,
and depending on wind shear,
the amount of dust in the atmose
will all dictate whether they become a
tropical depression or tropical storm.
One thing is for certain,
the heat is a big factor in
tropical cyclone development,
and this is ocean heat potentia.
A lot of the buoys out in
the water and the Gulf,
in the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic,
they're registering temperatures
at the sea surface of 90 plus ad
some of these shades of pink.
And then this is ocean heat potential.
So it's going down 30 to 40 feet
and it's even hotter than that.
So it's very sufficient,
very conducive A favorable environment
for tropical weather to get goi.
If it hits these areas this time of year,
late August,
early September,
it's a favorable area for tropil
cyclone development.
Now here is potential Tropical Cyclone
9A mouthful and you can see how
vast it is it's reach on rain ad
showers and storms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Hurricane Center has releasn
advisory and a forecast cone for this,
despite it not being named because it's
going to hit land less than 24 hours.
And here's the forecast cone mag
a landfall sometime Tuesday morg
around sunrise 7-8 AM, just offshore.
The forecast calls for a tropical storm,
so winds sustained around 45
miles an hour on top of rain.
You can see it's not very organ,
but it has an area of low press,
a close circulation,
but a lot of moisture just kindf
spreading out in all directions.
Which means most of South and Central
Texas is going to cash in on soe
pretty good rain over the next 24 hours.
But it's going to be a quick moving storm,
so that's the good news.
Shouldn't provide much of A
flooding threat in that area.
So wind shear typically things that can
tear apart storms and hurricanes as dust,
Saharan dust in the Atlantic.
Also wind speeds aloft that
are going so fast,
like 50-60 seventy miles an hour
whenever the wind shear is high.
That means wind speeds in the vertical
and the atmosphere are going fat
and that can typically tear apat
tropical storms and hurricanes.
Now we don't have high
or moderate wind shear,
but we have some low to moderate wind
shear at near let's say Houston towards
San Antonio and along the Texas Gulf Coast,
which is going to hinder its
intensification process if you .
But for the most part,
it's in a favorable environment as it
moves to the West by about Tuesday morning,
where it will make landfall somewhere
between Brownsville and Corpus Christi,
maybe near Willacy or Kennedy
County again early Tuesday.
So windshear, while there is some out there,
it's not going to do much,
but the big story, it's losing .
So if it had the entire Gulf to strengthen,
it likely intensify very quickly
because the water is so hot,
the water is so hot.
But notice on forecast models,
it's just kind of a big BLOB
of moisture heavy rain as it
moves in Tuesday morning early.
This is a high resolution model
heavy rain moving towards Lared,
towards counties like Duval
County near Webb County,
and towards the Rio Grande,
where some of these downpours
could exceed 2 to 3 inches of
rain in a short amount of time,
which could lead to high water
spots and flash flooding.
We'll see some lingering outer s
of rain kind of streaming from the Gulf
of Mexico all day Tuesday between Austin,
Houston,
Corpus Christi and the valley
and towards northern Mexico.
But notice how fast that system moved off.
It's a quick and fast moving tropical
system and dropping a large amot
of rain in a short amount of ti.
So here's the rainfall forecast between
now and around Wednesday mornin.
So for the next couple days,
depending on when you watch this video,
not much for Austin are up I-35 around
the Hill Country and around San Antonio.
And that region between 1/10 to
1/2 an inch of rainfall on aver.
So not a lot,
but it does increase vastly the
farther S you go into Jim Wells
County towards George West Beev,
Corpus Christi.
And this swath of rain can easiy
exceed 3 to 4 inches of rain
between now and early Wednesday.
So that's the latest update and
forecast on this next tropical system.
If it were to be named Tropical Storm Herald,
that is Next up to bat on the 23
slate of names for this season.
OK, August tropical development.
You can see how that system developed it.
Usually and typically based on
years of data and past storms,
they usually take this path of
that westerly movement as they e
through the Caribbean Sea and ty
start to make a right and north
and northwest turn as they move
towards the Gulf of Mexico.
This is just kind of the
climatological track of the
late August part of the hurricane season.
Most likely areas to develop is
near the northern Caribbean Sea
and just east of the Bahamas.
That's just some of the data we
picked up in the last several y.
Usually hurricanes and storms
typically take that track in ths
time of year and look at this ad
it's in August and September.
We see the largest amount of sts
develop in the Atlantic Basin.
Here is the list of names for this season.
Again, next name is Harold,
Adalia and Jose wrapping up with Tammy,
Vince and Whitney for this
year's hurricane season.
So far we've seen 123-4567 named Storms.