Could France be facing a new insurgency on the Pacific island of New Caledonia?
In May 2024, widespread rioting broke out in the territory,
which has long been pushing for independence.
As Paris rushed thousands of police reinforcements to the island,
French President Emmanuel Macron made an emergency visit to try to quell tensions.
But while France appears determined to hold on to what it sees as a strategically
vital foothold in the Pacific, there are concerns that the latest violence could
herald a return to a more sustained armed campaign to end French rule.
So, what exactly sparked the latest disturbances,
and is New Caledonia really facing an unprecedented insurrection?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
We often imagine that the era of colonialism is over.
However, around the world,
there are still 17 places on the UN list of non-self-governing territories.
Aside from Western Sahara, which is under Moroccan occupation, the United Kingdom controls ten,
three are under U.S. administration, and one is run by New Zealand.
Two remain under French rule: French Polynesia and New Caledonia.
It's the latter of these that recently came to international attention.
In the middle of May, mass rioting left six dead and many wounded in
the most severe violence to hit the territory in nearly 40 years.
As France attempts to stabilise the situation, the recent clashes
raise significant questions about colonisation, self-determination,
geopolitics, and even the role of hybrid threats in modern international relations.
New Caledonia is in the South Pacific and lies approximately 1,300 km,
or 800 miles, off the east coast of Australia.
Its closest neighbor is Vanuatu, 630 km, or 390 miles, to its east.
New Zealand lies approximately 1,200 miles, or 2,000 km, to its south,
and France, the metropolitan power, is 17,000 km, or roughly 10,500 miles, away.
At around 18,000 square km, or 7,000 square miles, if it were a member of the United Nations,
New Caledonia would rank as the 151st of the organization’s current 193 members.
The population presently stands at around 290,000 and is composed of three main groups.
According to the 2014 census, the largest community is the indigenous Melanesians,
the Kanaks, who comprise 40% of the inhabitants.
Next are the Europeans, mainly of French origin; they’re around 30%.
The remaining 30% comprises other immigrant communities, including Polynesians from
neighboring countries and islands and settlers from Indonesia and Vietnam.
While New Caledonia has a long history of human settlement, with the Melanesians arriving around
5,000 years ago, the first European to visit was Captain James Cook in 1774.
Landing on the mountainous island, he promptly named it after his homeland, Scotland.
However, our story really begins 80 years later, in 1853, when France seized the territory.
Initially used as a prison colony, other settlers began arriving by the end of the century as
France and the other European colonial powers extended their control over the South Pacific.
All this would change with the start of decolonisation at the end of the Second World War.
In 1946, New Caledonia became one of 72 colonial
holdings placed on the UN’s list of non-self-governing territories—lands
with a recognised right of self-determination potentially leading to independence.
In 1958, New Caledonia was given its first chance at statehood when France
introduced a new constitution, and its 20 overseas colonies were given
the choice between accepting the new arrangements or gaining independence.
Alongside 18 others, New Caledonia overwhelmingly voted in favor of
the constitution and remained under French rule.
But while Paris would go on to grant 14 of these colonies independence just two years later,
in 1960, New Caledonia would remain under French rule.
This decision to keep the island under French control would have fateful consequences following
the discovery of nickel deposits in the 1960s and the growth of mining.
Aside from making the territory economically valuable, it also altered its population.
In addition to the arrival of more European immigrants, the island’s
growing prosperity also attracted settlers from neighboring Polynesian states and elsewhere.
As the Kanak became an increasingly impoverished minority in their own land,
a pro-independence movement emerged.
This would come to wider international attention in the 1980s.
In 1986, having previously removed it,
the UN General Assembly reinstated New Caledonia on its list of non-self-governing territories.
However, while France held an independence referendum the
following year, the vote was boycotted by pro-independence
forces following the decision to allow newly arrived settlers to take part.
With a 59% turnout, 98% voted to remain part of the French Republic.
Following this, tensions rose sharply as armed Kanak insurgents took on French gendarmes,
ending in a hostage crisis that left almost 30 people dead.
In the aftermath of the incident, the sides began peace talks.
This led to the Matignon Agreement.
Under the terms of the deal, which was confirmed by a referendum,
New Caledonia would be permitted an independence vote 10 years later.
In the meantime, Paris would do more to help the Kanak community economically and socially.
In 1998, as the 10-year deadline expired, the sides reached a new deal: the Noumea Accord.
Instead of an immediate vote on statehood, it laid out a firm plan for future independence votes.
Starting in 2018 and ending in 2022, the territory would be able to hold up to three referendums.
In the meantime, it would gain greater autonomy over many policy areas, although justice,
public order, defence, foreign affairs, finance, and currency were all excluded.
It also fully recognised the Kanak identity and created New Caledonian citizenship.
Once again, the agreement was approved by popular vote, with almost three-quarters endorsing it.
The first referendum was held on the 4th of November 2018.
From the start, it was clear that the vote would go against independence.
Although the Kanak community was overwhelmingly in favour of statehood,
the other communities strongly opposed it, largely out of a fear that it would
mean giving up around a billion euro a year in subsidies from the French State.
However, despite predictions that independence would be heavily defeated, with some predicting
70% of the vote against statehood, the result was much closer than expected.
On a turnout of around 80%, voters rejected statehood by 56% to 44%.
This paved the way for a second independence vote two years later, on the 4th of October 2020.
This time, the turnout was higher at 86%.
But while the result again went against independence,
the margin was far tighter at 53% to 47%.
A year later, on the 11th of December 2021, New Caledonia held a third and final vote.
However, despite the narrowing gap between the sides,
the pro-independence forces decided to boycott the poll.
As they saw it, the Covid pandemic, which heavily affected the Kanak community,
made a fair campaign impossible.
Still, under Paris's orders, the referendum went ahead.
With a 44% turnout, 97% voted against independence.
The result was greeted with jubilation back in France.
Addressing the nation, French President Emmanuel Macron warmly welcomed the result,
calling France more beautiful for the decision to reject independence.
While the 1998 peace agreement allowed for further consultations following the third and final votes,
and notwithstanding the highly contested nature of the referendum, it soon became
clear that Paris now wanted to put the matter to rest, at least for the foreseeable future.
While the French government didn't rule out another vote,
it suggested that this wouldn't happen for many years.
Aside from wanting to avoid the disruption of continual referendums,
vital strategic factors had also come into play.
With China's growing influence across the Pacific and a close
alliance forming between Britain, the United States, and Australia,
the French government wanted to maintain its own independent presence in the region.
This was highlighted when Macron staged a high-profile visit to
New Caledonia and the wider South Pacific in July 2023.
All this came to a head in May 2024 when French lawmakers passed new legislation extending the
voter base in New Caledonia to anyone resident in the territory for at least 10 years.
Seen as nothing more than a ploy to dilute support for independence,
the decision sparked widespread rioting amongst the Kanaks.
In addition to leaving six people dead and many injured,
it also led to extensive damage to property, widespread looting, and hundreds of arrests.
Indeed, at one point, the mayor of Noumea, the territory's capital,
even claimed that her city was under siege.
Taking urgent action to quell the violence,
France quickly dispatched thousands of extra police to the territory.
It also banned the use of TikTok,
which it argued was being used to incite and coordinate the protests.
All this seems to have had the desired result.
As things stand, order seems to have been largely restored, at least for now.
Having brought the immediate situation under control, Macron's emergency visit to the
territory underscored the political seriousness of what he called an unprecedented insurrection.
While he pledged to maintain 3,000 forces on the island for as long as needed,
he also met with political leaders and promised not to rush through voter reforms.
Crucially, however, he stopped short of abandoning them altogether.
All this seems unlikely to quell the deep resentment on the island or address
Kanak concerns about poverty, inequality, and independence.
To this end, there'll be questions about whether the rioting may
even mark the start of another more sustained anti-colonial insurrection.
On the one hand, it may seem hard to see how a major uprising could emerge.
While the Kanak community is the largest community in New Caledonia, it's not the majority.
Meanwhile, France clearly has the resources to
maintain a large security presence on the island for quite some time.
But this will be extremely costly.
Aside from the expense of keeping so many security forces in place,
France will also pay a diplomatic and political price.
Any new insurgency will highlight continued French colonial rule,
secured by what many see as a deliberate step to manipulate the voter base.
It will also feed local resentment.
In this sense, while it might seem unlikely that New Caledonia will become a significant hard
security problem for Paris, especially compared to some of the other places where it's operated
in recent years, it will nevertheless carry long-term political consequences and costs.
But this story also has a final, rather bizarre twist.
While there are clearly long-standing domestic factors at play, France has
now said that the violence was in fact stirred up by another country: Azerbaijan.
Although this may seem oddly random, it isn't as outlandish as it may appear.
In recent months, an organization called the Baku Initiative Group has become increasingly active.
Operating with what appears to be the direct
support of the Azerbaijani government, the group's aim is to support French
liberation and anti-colonialist movements in retaliation for French support for Armenia.
Of course, it's still unclear whether the group really did play a direct role in
fomenting the rioting in New Caledonia, and Azerbaijan firmly rejects the accusation.
However, if it did, it highlights how hybrid strategies can pop up in
the most unlikely places and most unexpected ways.
It also raises the question of what exactly Paris will now do about it.
In the meantime, France's primary focus would be on stabilizing the situation in New Caledonia.
But while there seems little doubt that Paris has managed to resecure control over the territory,
at least in the short term, the violent clashes have once again raised questions
about the longer-term future of this strategically important Pacific territory.
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