UKRAINE IS STRONGLY
CONDEMNING WHAT IT CALLS
RUSSIA'S PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS IN
THE BLACK SEA.
MOSCOW SAYS ONE OF ITS WARSHIPS
FIRED WARNING SHOTS AT A CARGO
SHIP ON SUNDAY, SOLDIERS THEN
BOARDED THE SHIP.
THE RUSSIANS CLAIMING IT WAS
HEADED --
THE PORT CITY HAS BEEN
REPEATEDLY TARGETED BY RUSSIAN
FORCES THROUGHOUT THE WAR, AND
NICK PATON MARSH IS IN DNIPRO
FOR US.
NICK, IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT
ADJUSTS OF COURSE.
MANY OF THE PORTS THAT UNUSUAL
TO GRAIN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN
TARGETED.
BUT NOW A CARGO SHIP ITSELF HAS
BEEN TARGETED TO.
WHAT MORE DO WE KNOW ON THIS?
>> YEAH, IT'S AN EXTRAORDINARY
BRAZEN SET OF MESSAGES SENT BY
THE RUSSIAN NAVY HERE.
THE SICK CREW OCON, PAULO
REGISTERED VESSEL, WAS
ESSENTIALLY BOARDED BY RUSSIAN
MILITARY, BACKED UP BY KATE 29
HELICOPTERS THAT HOVERED OVER
THE VESSEL.
THEY RELEASED A VIDEO OF THAT
PARTICULAR INSTANCE, SHOWING
SOME OF THE CREW SITTING IN A
LINE ALONG PART OF THAT SHIP.
AS FAR AS WE KNOW, THE --
WHICH RUSSIA SAID WAS HEADED
FOR IS, MAO DIDN'T ACTUALLY END
UP GOING.
THERE INSTEAD IT WENT TO THE
ROMANIAN PART OF SALINA, BUT
ESSENTIALLY SITS ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE DANUBE RIVER NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE BLACK SEA.
WHY IS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING?
WELL RUSSIA PULLED OUT OF THE
GRAIN DEAL WHICH SHOULD HAVE
ALLOWED SHIP PASSAGE TO TAKE
GREENE ON TO INTERNATIONAL
MARKETS.
ESSENTIALLY, IT DOESN'T APPEAR
THAT MANY SHIPS DECIDED TO MOVE
REGARDLESS.
AND THIS IS PERHAPS RUSSIA'S
BID TO SHOW THAT IT STILL IN
CONTROL OF THOSE WATERWAYS.
WHETHER THEY ARE ABLE TO DO
THIS FOR EVERY SINGLE SHIP THEY
HAVE SUSPICIONS ABOUT, I VERY
MUCH DOUBT.
WE'VE SEEN HOW STRANGE THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY IS ON THE
FRONTLINES HERE.
THE IDEA OF THEM SENDING OUT A
KA 29 HELICOPTER FOR EVERY SHIP
THEY WANT TO HAVE A LOOK AT
SEEMS TOUGH.
BUT CERTAINLY, VERY KEEN TO
SHARE THIS MESSAGE OF CONTROL
IN THE BLACK SEA.
WELL AT THE SAME TIME, IT'S
IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT
SOME OF THEIR MORE IMPORTED
MARINE VESSELS HAVE BEEN HIT BY
UKRAINIAN DRONES.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, AS WE SEE
MOSCOW LOSING CONTROL IN OTHER
AREAS, IT WOULD LIKE TO SUGGEST
IT'S A DOMINANCE, RESPONDING
WITH BRUTE FORCE AGAINST
CIVILIAN TARGETS.
YOU MENTIONED ODESSA THERE,
CERTAINLY THAT AGAIN THE CASE.
REMARKABLE IMAGES OF A
SUPERMARKET ON FIRE, THREE
APPARENTLY WOUNDED THERE.
OTHER TARGETS HIT INCLUDING A
DORMITORY IN ODESSA AND ALSO
AGAIN, KHARKIV, MORE SHELLING
THERE.
I SHOULD REMIND PEOPLE AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UTTERLY
CHILLING DEATH OF A 23 DAY OLD
BABY GIRL CALLED SOFIA, KILLED
ALONG WITH THE REST OF HER
FAMILY, A 12-YEAR-OLD AND
BROTHER AND FATHER BY SHELLING
IN A VILLAGE CLOSE TO THE BLACK
SEA ITSELF.
THIS CONSISTENT DRUMBEAT OF
RUSSIAN TARGETING CIVILIANS,
EVEN THE VERY YOUNGEST,
PERSISTING.
JULIA?
>> NICK, THANK YOU FOR THAT.
NICK PATON WALSH THERE IN
DNIPRO.
MEANWHILE IN RUSSIA, SIGNS OF
THE ECONOMY IS FACING PRESSURE
FROM BOTH SANCTIONS AND
DWINDLING EXPORTS.
THE JEWELER HITTING A 17 MONTH
HIGH AGAINST THE RUBBLE.
FOR CONTEXT, THE RUSSIAN
CURRENCY HAS LOST NEARLY 40% OF
ITS VALUE SO FAR THIS YEAR.
--
JOINS US NOW ON THIS.
CLEAR, I THINK THE SURPRISE HE
REALLY IS THAT THE WEAKNESS
WERE SEEING HASN'T HAPPENED
BEFORE.
THE QUESTION IS, HOW MUCH MORE
DO WE SEE AND WHAT DOES CENTRAL
BANK TO TO TRY TO STEP IN AND
MITIGATE THIS?
>> YEAH, I THINK THAT IS THE
QUESTION.
NOW 18 MONTHS INTO THIS WAR,
OBVIOUSLY, THE CURRENCY DID
FALL QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BUT THEY'VE REBOUNDED, THE
CENTRAL BANK BROUGHT IN ALL
THESE EMERGENCY MEASURES.
WE SAW HUGE REVENUES COME IN
FROM OIL AND GAS AS THOSE
PRICES CAME UP.
OBVIOUSLY NOW SOME OF THAT
TREND IS IN REVERSE, OIL AND
GAS PRICES HAVE FALLEN.
THIS YEAR, RUSSIAN REVENUES
FROM OIL AND GAS ARE DOWN SOME
40% IN THE FIRST PART OF THE
YEAR, FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR.
AND THAT'S CONTRIBUTING TO A
SITUATION WHERE REALLY THE
TRADE BALANCE HAS BEEN TURNED
UPSIDE DOWN TO SOME DEGREE.
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IS DOWN
SOME 85% IN THE FIRST HALF OF
THE YEAR.
AND THIS IS WHAT THE CENTRAL
BANK IS REALLY ATTRIBUTING TO
THE FALL IN THEIR CURRENCY,
IMPORTS HAVE SURGED AS DEMAND
HAS RETURNED AND EXPERTS HAVE
COME DOWN OF COURSE WITH OIL
AND GAS BEING THE BIGGEST
CONTRIBUTOR.
IT COULD STILL CONTINUE, THE
CENTRAL BANK IS SAYING THAT
THEY MAY STEP IN AND RAISE
RATES AGAIN AT THEIR NEXT
MEETING, THEY JUST DID SO BY A
FULL PERCENTAGE POINT IN JULY
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN
A YEAR.
REMEMBER, THEY'VE BEEN BRINGING
RATES DOWN REALLY SINCE THE
LATE SPRING OF LAST YEAR, AFTER
THEY HAD TO RAISE THEM AS AN
EMERGENCY MEASURE.
THEY MAY HAVE TO NOW KEEP
RAISING THEM, SO THAT'S ONE
THING.
BUT I THINK THIS IS ALL AS WELL
SOMETHING TO BEAR IN MIND.
I WAS JUST TALKING TO AN
ECONOMIST WHO REMINDED ME THAT
FOR THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE, THIS
EXCHANGE RATE IS VERY
PSYCHOLOGICAL.
RUSSIAN'S --
THEY SEE THESE TRIPLE DIGIT
NUMBERS AND SO THE GOVERNMENT
IS OUT TODAY TRYING TO REASSURE
THE PEOPLE AND ADVISE THE
KREMLIN SAYING THE CENTRAL BANK
STILL HAS ALL THE TOOLS IT
NEEDS TO FIX THIS.
>> THE PROBLEM IS, WHEN THEY
START TO RAISE INTEREST RATES,
YOU'LL HAVE TO DO SO EVEN MORE YOU'LL HAVE TO DO SO EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVELY, THEN THEY'RE
REALLY GOING TO FEEL IT.
THIS IS A DOUBLE WHEN HE.
CLARE, GOOD TO HAVE YOU.