Over the past few weeks, one of my least favorite genres of reporting has come back up again.
Turkey is once again supposedly turning to the east, thanks to the planned purchase of
some Russian military technology.
The Turkish government is certainly having a rough time with their Western Allies at
the moment, and flirting with Russia is part of that tension.
But many are claiming that we are seeing a permanent shift towards Russia, or that even
that Turkey’s NATO alliance is in serious danger.
That doesn’t make much sense to me.
I think people are mistaking short-term jockeying for position for a major long-term change.
Turkey and Russia will never be allies in any serious sense.
It’s impossible.
I mean, countries don’t really have goals, but to the extent Russian history has one
it’s to stick it to the Turks.
Russia’s Medieval beginnings can be found in the liberation from, and then the destruction
of Muslim Turkic Khanates
Russia’s search for a warm water port has always driven it South, into traditionally
Turkish territory.
Russia’s Tsars saw themselves as the successors to the Byzantine Emperors that once ruled
in Istanbul, the capital of Modern Turkey.
This was about the religion that the Russians shared with the Greeks and Slav subjects of
the Ottoman Empire, but it was also about ideas of national greatness that appealed
to Communists just as much as they did to the Russian Orthodox.
For Hundreds of years, Ottoman Turkey desperately looked for allies to save them.
The Russians took some land for themselves, but also fought to establish independent countries
they could more easily control.
By the time the modern Turkish republic was founded, a significant slice of the population
was made up of refugees from Russian aggression.
After World War II, Turkey finally got its wish, with the NATO alliance, which came about
after some fairly direct threats from Stalin.
With the end of the cold war, Turkey got another gift, a historically weak and humbled Russia.
Things have improved a bit for Russia since the 1990s, but the country is still less threatening
to Turkey than it has been at any point since the 1700s.
And that’s what these rumors of an alliance come out of, historically unprecedented Russian
weakness.
Turkey can now use threats of friendship with Russia as a prop in its much more important
negotiations with countries like Germany and the United States.
But it has no interest in helping Russia recover any real power.
Because when Russia has real power, it uses it against Turkey.
Even at this low point, Russia has still real influence in Turkey’s direct neighborhood.
Syria and Armenia, two neighboring countries with very serious resentments against Turkey,
are largely propped up by Russia.
In Syria in particular, Russian and Turkish proxies are actively trying to kill each other
right now.
Turkey may very well buy a Russian weapons system or two to freak out the West, but the
two countries will never be allies.
Turkey’s long-term goal in the region, a weakened Russia, is perfectly aligned with
the west, and it will be for decades to come.
What we’re seeing recently is theater.
Turkish flirting with Russia is emphasized by Washington, DC war mongers who see anything
short of complete subservience as a threat.
Let’s not encourage this sort of thing.
Thanks for watching, please subscribe.
And if you want to make sure you don’t miss a video, you can sign up for my e-mail list
at the link here, or follow me on Twitter.