Hi. This is Drew didn't think of NBC Sports edge here with
Warren sharp to talk the AFC North. Now it is easy to see
why this is one of the most
exciting divisions in football. You have some bona fide Super
Bowl contenders here, including last year's representative led
by Joe burrow, but believe it or not, the reigning champions
in the Cincinnati Bengals are not the favorites
to win the AFC. North, it is the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar
Jackson, who are I plus 150? Five. This has been sort of
the sharp bet darling of the entire,
you know, the entire offseason cycle as we have been awaiting,
what ultimately plays out with the quarterback situation in
Cleveland but the Ravens yeah, currently sitting at the top of
the market plus 155. Whereas The Bangles are 2 to 12
in the North Cleveland Browns sitting right now at plus 275.
And the Pittsburgh Steelers
used to own this division now sitting at the bottom, at 12:50,
realistically. All on the back of the quarterback uncertainty.
Let's start with piss. Berg who have a win total right now of
seven and a half. If you want to play the over seven and
a half, it
is minus 105. The under is - 115, so slight shading to
an underachieving, Pittsburgh Steelers campaign, this year,
correct me if I'm wrong warm, but a 7 win season would be
the worst ever from Mike Tomlin and somewhat surprising considering
all the blue chips that this team has on the defense
are you as concerned as the market is? That Pittsburgh
won't be able to score enough points to To get them to
an eighth win season.
I am I haven't fed it but and you're right. It would be
the first time ever for Tomlin and and his tenure with
the Steelers, but my concern starts on the offensive side of
the ball and I only need to look back to their strategy
over the last couple of years is specifically last season.
They decide to go after Nagi Harris, and they say, we're not
going to draft it. The o-line we're going to draft a running
back. And then you look at what Nagi here is did behind this
offensive line last season, he
Just 0.93 yards before contact / rushing attempt,
out of, like, 200 running backs
over the last couple of years, that ranked
chart out of 43 running backs, without least 200 attempts,
that ranked 43rd dead. Last in the NFL for yards before
contact / Rush that's not necessarily A Nagi Harris stat,
it's more so a stat.
Look at their offensive line and that they're not getting
holes for this running back to get through before he's getting
Acted by Defenders. And that's my big issue with the Steelers
team. Is that what is just mind-boggling to me, is that
this team faced, the third
lowest rate of heavy boxes last season because all they do is
have Ben Roethlisberger, drop back and throw the ball. Pepper
the ball all over the field. They have a really high pass
rate and so the defense is just sag back and play pass a lot
and they hardly ever putting seven or more men inside of
the box. And despite that nausea hair still ranking. Third out
of 43 running backs in yard before contact, what's going to
happen this year? True.
Now that Ben's gone,
this team is going to run the football more, they are not
going to get more of these light boxes. Any longer
defenses, are going to know that they aren't going to throw
the ball at one of the highest rates and leak. They're going
be running the ball at least at an average rate if not slightly
above that. So the defense is, you're going to put more men in
the box and if they couldn't run with this offensive line
against light boxes last year,
I think they're gonna have a lot of problems for
Dang it this season. And for that reason, your point
was, well said, they are going to struggle offensively
enough, in my opinion, to put their defense in really bad
positions. Worst positions than they even were in last season,
shorter Fields situations where they absolutely can't allow
a single field goal.
Let alone a touchdown because of the score in the game to
that point in time I like the job that Tomlin has done.
I think that they obviously did really well.
Ben Roethlisberger not playing as great over the last couple
years and still able to get to the postseason last year, for
instance, but I think this offense is really going to put
this defense in difficult spots and I think the team in general
is really going to struggle.
Yep, I would agree. I think with disrupter like TJ W and
a ball Hawk like Lincoln Fitzpatrick.
Chances that you have a couple of games with the defense out
scores. The offense is crazy
as wild as that would be.
But ya know the Steelers is this is going to Yeah, ruff
ruff. Watch if you are
you know tuning in for offensive Precision. I would
I would find other games this season that said the Cleveland
Browns. As we move up the board are maybe the most interesting
team to talk about because the uncertainty is
enormous.
We are currently expecting that DeShaun Watson. Misses at least
the first six games of the Season while his appeals
process plays out and for my money I think that the NFL is
just coming after him for a fine on top of the games. And
He comes
back at some point during the season and plays
but it is entirely possible that they indefinitely suspend
him. And we, you not see him for the 2022 Campaign, which
really throws the Browns into a difficult spot because this is
a roster that is built to win. Now,
outside of the quarterback position, which will be manned
by Jacoby Brissette at least through the early part of this
season.
Is your read on this Cleveland Browns team as Contender. Once
Watson comes back, or do you think this is ultimately going
to be a lost year?
Hmm, that's a good question. I don't know that I think this is
going to be a lost year, but I also don't know that I could
see them getting Watson
up to speed enough. Considering
how much time he has missed? The last time that he's
actually played football, I know he is a brilliant Talent
on the field. He's one of the top five quarterbacks in
the league. He was playing down in Houston. This team won
only four games but he was playing incredibly well
on the last season that he was down there.
I like DeShaun Watson on the field and I think he is
a Difference Maker and what he's going to allow him to faint ski
to do is not have to hold the quarterbacks hand to call only
the plays that are going to allow
this quarterback to excel in
like he was doing with Baker Mayfield. He's going to be
a lope of this offense up and used three wide or four wide
receiver formations. He's going to be able to have success
playing from
in front or when playing from behind but without knowing how
many games he's truly going to miss and you mentioned at least
six, you know, I think the NFL is appealing to get it At least
seven, which is a big difference
for this division because that seventh game is against
the Baltimore Ravens. And so if he'd suspend for, even if they
tack on one more game to it, now he's missing a game against
Baltimore,
which is going to be big for this division itself. So
I think it's going to be tough for this team to win enough
games in the ultra-competitive AFC and although Jacoby
Brissette. Has been quote unquote serviceable
in the past at times just look at what he was doing last year
compared to Who are down in Miami, it was night and day
difference. In terms of how bad Jacoby were set actually was
and Frank Wright made Miracles
with this offense, being able to be semi respectable with
a lot of yards after the catch. And the way that he was calling
things, you're right great offensive line,
great run gain. They should be able to support their
quarterback. I don't expect this team. It's like go 0 and 6
when DeShaun Watson isn't there,
but I think it's going to be tough to really
emerge from this division winning enough games.
To either win the division or go as a wild-card in an AFC.
That's just stacked from top to bottom.
Yeah, no. I think if you're, you bring up
to super high leverage games right there in the middle,
we seven week eight, at the Ravens versus the Bangles. If,
if Watson is unavailable for those games, then I think they
can basically kiss their chances of a playoff spot
goodbye.
And even with him back there are certainly questions about
how quickly you'll be able to get him up to speed. So easy to
pass on the Browns for the 2022 season. At least
with what we know. Now
the Cincinnati Bengals are a are an even more difficult
handicap from a, what is this team,
you know, intending to do in 2022
even though we know who the quarterback will be. And we
know that the quarterback is good. Joe burrow absolutely
rocks. He was as good as advertised coming out of
college. He comes off an ACL,
you know, injury that derailed his year one, and all he does
in year to answer.
Every critics questions about his ability to be an NFL
quarterback and takes his team to the Super Bowl. Now, we're
there, some lucky breaks along the way. Absolutely
did this team need to address some issues, particularly
offensive line, the offseason? Absolutely, my question really
about this Bengals team is, why didn't they do more?
You have a rookie quarterback on a, you know, you have
quarterback on a rookie contract for crying out loud.
You should be able to, you know, go a little bit more all
in
considering you have effectively two of the most
valuable pieces,
you know? For building a franchise. In today's NFL in
Jonesboro and Jamar Chase on cost control deals.
The schedule is not looking easy for these guys
particularly down the stretch. They basically play every
difficulty in the AFC, back to back, to back, to back, to back
to back.
But this is still a team that should be in the mix when it
comes to playoff seeding. And ultimately, who wins the AFC,
do you agree with that?
I do agree with that
prior to free agency. I was expecting to To
fade this team a little bit in 2022
after the Superbowl on how everything develop. But then I saw
them go out and address some of the key issues that were
causing them problems in 2021 primarily that offensive line
and they kept the receiving Corps together and I said, hey
you know, I don't know that I can come out here and fade this
team.
It does concern me that Joe borough
has no timetable to return.
It has not been you know, doing enough on the field this
preseason. He heard himself in the Super Bowl.
There are things from a Injury perspective that are slight red
flags, but I don't think that those are going to be impactful
enough. By the time the season gets here. Just from
a projection standpoint things. That concern me though, our
number one, as you alluded to the schedule, they played
the second easiest schedule in the NFL last year. This year, I've
got them playing the sixth most difficult when you talk about
what this passing offense, went up against in terms of
opposing defenses,
last season they played six sir seven games against bottom, 10
past, Defense has and zero games
against top ten past the offenses. This year
I'm projecting they'll face six games against top 10 pass
defense has. I mean and that doesn't even include like
a team, like the Baltimore Ravens who made massive strides
defensively in their secondary to try to get
a lot better this season. So it's going to be a real step up
this season in terms of
the competition and who they're going to have to do it against.
And the best shot that they're going to get from a lot more of
these teams. That knows, this is a Super Bowl. Tender from
last season.
The other thing that's concerning here
Drew is that when they were down in field goal range, this
team had the 27th rated offense on third Downs. That's why we
saw their kicker after come out a lot
and being these key impactful field goals, so frequently
because this team was not calling good enough plays and
executing well enough on third Downs in these difficult
situations when they could have gone for touchdowns. But
instead settled for field goals down inside,
During range. And also, we look at some of the other issues
that I have with this team, you know, they used bottom, 10
rates of pre-snap motion and play action. These are things
that I think could be higher would make life easier for Joe
burrow and
they're just not using the. So
there are things to like, about this team and it starts first
and foremost with Joe Borough. Assuming he's 100% healthy. But
there are enough red flags here for me to say, you know, I'm
not
willing to fade this team right now in the Futures Market.
But I'm certainly not going to be betting on them.
Season.
Yeah, one of the other good reasons not to bet on them. The
market has ticked up there, over nine and a half win total
to - 125 to the over. That is a little too juicy for what is
a very difficult schedule as you laid out. So this is a pass
which leaves us with
the markets presumptive favorite to win the AFC North
and that is the Baltimore rays of it. Ravens their win. Total
is nine and a half as well. However, the over there - 160
under nine and a half is plus 130.
And I think as you are closely following, this Ravens team is
caught a lot of Buzz. Over the balance of the offseason on
the basis of they will be healthier as anise operating assumption
and that is already being tested with some of
the injuries that they have accrued in this pre-season campaign so
far. Do you think that the Ravens are due for a bounce
back? Or are you somewhat worried that this is still
a relatively stars
and scrub Steam and some of the Stars aren't looking perfectly
ready to contribute this Here,
I think they will bounce back because even with all
the injuries that they sustained, this was the number one seed in
December in the AFC until Lamar Jackson went out with injuries.
So,
of course, if they lose Lamar,
I have no confidence in this team at all. But
even without any type of Run game support last season, this
team was the number one seed in the AFC before Lamar's injury
caused him to miss those final
six games of the season.
Now, what am I? Expecting of this team to start the year.
Well
last year they had to go majorly pass heavy.
Despite being the number two, most run-heavy team the prior
two years because they lost all their running backs in
the offseason. I'm anticipating that they come a little bit
more towards the run this season
but we're still not seeing those running backs that are
going to carry the load for them. Look great in terms of
rehabbing from their injuries so it's still early in August,
will
we don't know yet how close those guys are going to be too.
Being healthy and Week 1 or week to or week 3 that is
a factor. They may have to lean more on the passing attack. And
what is this team done to support Lamar? Jackson
through the air.
Not a heck of a whole lot Drew they have the 30 second highest
cap, hit four wide receivers this year. They don't have any
good veteran wide receivers. You got the cheapest wide
receiver room based upon cap. Hit the
their number-one guy. Is Richard baby who's coming off
of his rookie season last year. Other than that, they just have
a tight end. I mean, they're going to need these Guys to
step up, I'm hoping that they go out and get another wide
receiver of Veteran, wide receiver closer to the start of
the season when they realized that maybe our backs aren't
going to be here for us to start the year and we need to
rely a little bit more on the passing attack. But when they
relied on the passing Tech last year Drew and shifted to the
seventh most pass, have the offense just like that because
of all those running back injuries, Mark Jackson, even
with this wide receiving Corps still,
what is the number one? Most accurate quarterback throwing
outside the numbers in the NFL. I mean he Put on some good
numbers. He didn't have the cleanest season, he doesn't
have enough support.
I still think this team
goes over their win total, but I bet it at a slightly better
number earlier. This offseason, I'm I'm bullish on
the Baltimore Ravens this year but
man, I mean, every single thing that I'm seeing about these
injuries and guys, not being 100% yet, does obviously
concern me
interesting? I agree with your taking, they have
an interesting schedule, breaks a little fun. Anki. They
basically work their way up
the AFC East playing the Jets, the Dolphins, the Patriots, and
then the bills all in consecutive weeks, 1 through 4.
So they don't face the divisional opponents with
a matchup against the Bengals week, five,
realistically, if you have high hopes I think of betting
the Ravens doing something special this season, particularly in
the postseason, I don't think you can afford to wait, this
team is probably going to accrue some wins in the first
quarter of the season and then
that price is going to get a lot shorter. So keep that in
mind if you're going to Build a portfolio of AFC teams
you know probably need to take some action on the Ravens
before the season starts
with that. Thank you for listening the AFC North in
the books. Well done one and be sure to catch the rest of our
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