China largest submarine suddenly surfaced among Vietnamese fishing boats in the South
China Sea.
According to international submarine warfare analyst H.I. Sutton, the Chinese Type 094
Jin Class submarine suddenly emerged from the deep among a fishing fleet operating off
the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.
As per reports, the photo was taken by a Vietnamese fisherman in September 2019.
Prima-facie it will look like China is trying to intimidate Vietnam with this act but there
is more to the story.
Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine such as the Jin Class is primarily intended
to remain undetected by staying underwater for long periods of time and act as a second
strike option against a surprise attack by an enemy nation.
Surfacing means giving up its location and this highly unlikely that it was done purposely.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes the surfacing of Chinese Type 094 Jin Class submarine.
Let’s get started.
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China claims most of the South China Sea.
It said that it has "indisputable sovereignty" over the area.
Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan have disputed these claims.
The route is significant as about $5 trillion in trade through shipping passes each year.
Countries like the US, Japan and India have no claims in the area and want ‘Freedom
of Navigation’ as per international maritime laws.
China has tried imposing a unilateral decision as per which all ships & aircraft navigating
in the area needs to identify itself to the Chinese Navy.
Viewers may note that The Philippines approached international tribunal for arbitration and
argued that Chinese activity in the region was violating international law.
On July 12, 2016, Judges at Hague tribunal completely rejected China’s claims over
the waters and stated that China’s claim that it enjoyed historical rights over the
South China Sea is incorrect.
China had argued that the tribunal had no jurisdiction in the matter and rejected the
decision.
Chinese activities in the region have been getting more & more aggressive.
China has tried to change the territorial status quo gradually, island-by-island instead
of trying to capture in one go.
For example, China first occupied the Paracel Islands in 1974 and then slowly expanded its
presence southward by attacking Vietnam’s islands in the Spratly chain in the 1980s.
This strategy known as salami slicing aims for the slow accumulation of small changes.
China has been using strong-arm tactics to threaten its smaller neighbors time and again
which include patrols by warships and aircraft close to their borders.
Ballistic missile submarines are generally nuclear powered and carry long-range nuclear-tipped
missiles also known as SLBM or Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile.
Nuclear strikes can be carried out from land, air, and sea and this is known as Nuclear
Triad.
Nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines are considered to be the most potent weapon
developed by mankind and they are the most survivable part of the nuclear triad.
There are good reasons for it.
A surprise preemptive strike might wipe out a country’s land-based missiles and nuclear
bombers, but it’s very difficult to track and take out a ballistic-missile submarine
patrolling quietly in the depths of the ocean.
Since they can’t be taken out by ‘first strike’ and can retaliate against an enemy
with SLBMs, no sane adversary will attack a country that possesses a Nuclear Powered
Ballistic missile submarines armed with SLBMs.
The importance of these can be gauged from the fact that the 14 Ballistic Missile Submarines
of American Ohio class together carry approximately 50% of the total US active inventory of strategic
thermonuclear warheads.
Nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines are very complex and costly to develop.
This is why the US, Russia, UK, France, China, and India are currently the only countries
to field a nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine.
Since the main purpose of these submarines is nuclear deterrence their location is one
of the most closely guarded secrets of a nation.
The exact location of these submarines at any given point of time is known only to a
handful of people.
Type 094 Jin Class is the latest and most potent ballistic missile submarine in the
Chinese arsenal.
Type 094 succeeds the Type 092 submarine.
As per reports, China plans to build 8 of these subs and 6 have been completed.
The remaining two are expected to be completed by 2020.
Type 094 now forms the backbone of Chinese nuclear deterrence.
These have a length of 135 m and displaces around 11,000 tons.
For comparison, American Ohio class has a length of 170 m and displaces 18,750 t whereas
Russian Boria class has a length of 170 m and displaces 24,000 t
Type 094 is armed with 12 JL-2 SLBMs.
The JL-2 is a naval variant of the land-based DF-31.
The missile was successfully fired from a Type 094 submarine for the first time in 2009.
JL-2 which is powered by a solid-fuel rocket has an estimated range of 7,400 km (4,600
mi) and each missile carries one nuclear warhead.
The warhead is thought to be of 1 Mt
To give viewers a perspective here is a comparison.
Trinity Test in New Mexico in July 1945, which ushered in the nuclear age, had a yield of
20 kilotons.
Hiroshima’s “Little Boy" bomb had a yield of 13-18 kilotons whereas Nagasaki's "Fat
Man" bomb had a yield of 20– 22-kilotons of TNT.
Type 094 deterrence patrols with JL-2 missiles began in December 2015.
A deterrent patrol is one where a ballistic missile sub with a full complement of nuclear-tipped
missiles sails towards its intended area of deployment and is ready for a strike at a
moment’s notice.
In case of an attack by a nuclear-armed adversary, the sub can be ordered to launch the missiles
which is done by sending a coded message by the high command.
As of 2017, 48 JL-2 launchers are deployed on Type 094 submarines
The submarine surfaced more than 300 km or around 185 miles from its home base at Sanya
on the Chinese island of Hainan.
China has many ways to bully its much smaller neighbors and there is no reason to sacrifice
the location of its most potent asset for this.
Speculations indicate that something went wrong and the vessel was forced to surface
unwillingly.
As per submarine warfare analyst Mr. Sutton, “Possibly the submarine had become entangled
in a fishing net, or feared that it would be.
Surfacing may have saved the lives of the fishermen, or the submariners.”
Chinese like Russian never disclose anything which shows weakness or failure.
In August, an official state of mourning was declared in the Russian city of Sarov after
5 elite Russian scientists were killed in an accident.
The radiation level in the city spiked after the incident though as per Russian sources
it was not hazardous for health.
Russia till now didn’t come clean on the incident.
Same way, it is unlikely that China will provide any details but it highly likely that Type
094 Jin Class had some sort of issue.