Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for Autumn 2022.
It’s looking like we’re heading for a
relatively wet and warm autumn for many regions.
But first, let's take a look at the recent conditions.
Following Australia’s wettest November on record, summer rainfall remained above average
for much of central and south-east Australia.
Extreme rainfall in South Australia saw many communities isolated by flooding.
Despite this, summer rainfall was close to
average for Australia overall, with Tasmania on track to have one of its three driest summers
on record.
Summer daytime temperatures have been warmer
than average for most the country, except for parts of South Australia and New South Wales.
Three sites in Western Australia recorded a maximum temperature over 50 degrees, with
Onslow equalling the Australian and Southern Hemisphere record of 50.7 °C on 13 January.
The rainfall distribution is reflected in the February soil moisture levels, which are relatively
low in WA and western Tasmania, and higher in central Australia and parts of the east.
Water storage levels are higher in many regions when compared to this time in 2021, including
those in the Murray-Darling Basin and the south-east coast
and further north in the Tanami-Timor Sea
Coast and the north-east coast.
So, what will influence our climate in the coming months?
La Niña is currently still active with cooler than normal waters persisting in the central
and eastern Pacific, while the western Pacific remains warm.
But with the outlook suggesting a return to neutral ENSO levels—neither La Niña or
El Niño—around mid-autumn, this La Niña is likely past its peak.
So what does this mean for the Autumn outlook?
Autumn is likely to be wetter than normal for many areas, including parts of eastern
and central Australia already impacted by summer floods.
In 2022, the first significant rainfall of the crop and pasture growing season, known
as the Autumn Break, is likely to occur at a normal to later-than-normal time compared
to recent decades.
The streamflow outlook for February to April suggests high flows are likely to continue
for streams and rivers at most locations, particularly in the south-east.
High streamflows, wet soils and forecasts of above average rainfall means the risk
of widespread flooding across parts of eastern Australia remains high.
Looking at the temperature outlooks, much of the north, west coast, and parts of the
south-east are likely to see higher than average daytime temperatures this autumn, with only
parts of eastern NSW likely to be cooler than average.
Autumn night-time temperatures on the other hand, are likely to be higher than normal
Australia-wide.
A wetter forecast and recent conditions means
normal to below normal fire potential in many forested areas east of the Great Dividing Range.
However, following a dry and hot summer, autumn
fire potential is increased in the south-west and Gascoyne regions of WA, as well as south-east
parts of South Australia.
Australia’s severe weather season runs from October to April. Bushfires, floods and tropical
cyclones may continue to pose significant risks during autumn.
Last year, autumn saw Tropical Cyclone Seroja
strike Western Australia and major floods impact large parts of New South Wales.
So, in summary, autumn is likely to see:
Above average rainfall for large parts of the country,
warmer than average days and nights across
much of the country,
high streamflows at most locations, with an increased risk of widespread flooding
and increased bushfire risk in parts of the
west.
You can find out more about the outlooks on the Bureau's website
and we'll see you next time.