A development that has complex geo-strategic
implications has taken place.
On June 16th, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially acknowledged the deployment
of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, his allied state. This confirmation marks the
fulfillment of his previous commitment made in March to station these weapons in the country.
Of particular significance is the fact that this marks the first instance since the dissolution
of the former Soviet Union (USSR) that Russia has positioned nuclear weapons beyond its own borders.
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes why the transfer of nuclear assets by Russia to Belarus
has far-reaching consequences ? Let's get into the details.
During his address at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF),
Putin emphasized that the deployment serves as
a reminder to the Western nations that Russia cannot be overpowered.
Putin stated, "As you know we were
negotiating with our ally, (Belarusian President (Alexander) Lukashenko, that we would move a part
of these tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Belarus - this has happened. The first nuclear
warheads were delivered to the territory of Belarus. But only the first ones, the first
part. But we will do this job completely by the end of the summer or by the end of the year."
He added,
"...It is precisely as an element of deterrence so that all those who are
thinking about inflicting a strategic defeat on us are not oblivious to this circumstance,”
Importantly, Putin added that negotiations to reduce Russia's vast nuclear arsenal,
the world's largest, was off the table
He said, "Just talking about this (the potential use of nuclear weapons) lowers the nuclear
threshold. We have more than NATO countries and they want to reduce our numbers. Screw them”
Alexander Lukashenko, just a few days ago said his country already
had "rockets and bombs" from Russia "three times more powerful than the
ones used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki" Japan by the U.S. during World War II.
Lukashenko is a staunch supporter of Putin and Belarus is almost like a vassal state of Russia
Belarus inherited a number of tactical nuclear weapons, as well as 81 SS-25 “Sickle”
road-mobile ICBMs when the union collapsed, but later returned their stockpile to Russia.
President Lukashenko had been advocating for the deployment of nuclear weapons in
Belarus since 2021, even prior to the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.
The possibility of nuclear cooperation between Moscow and Minsk emerged in June
last year when Putin declared the transfer of Iskander-M missiles,
capable of carrying nuclear warheads, to Belarus.
During the same announcement, Putin suggested that some of Belarus' Su-25
Frogfoot attack aircraft could be enhanced to accommodate tactical nuclear weapons.
Belarus is thought to possess 10 Su-25 aircraft.
The Sukhoi Su-25, known as the Frogfoot in the West, is a subsonic, single-seat,
twin-engine jet aircraft developed in the Soviet Union by Sukhoi.
It is believed that the conversion process for dual capability would
be relatively simpler and cost-effective,
as the Soviet-era Su-25s were initially designed with nuclear capability in mind.
Russia has many varieties of nukes that can be integrated to this aircraft.
The Iskander M is a mobile short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile
system produced and deployed by Russia. It is intended to use conventional or
nuclear warheads for the engagement of both moving and stationary targets.
Iskander-M system is equipped with 2 solid-propellant single-stage
guided missiles, model 9M723K1. Each one is controlled throughout
the entire flight path and fitted with an inseparable warhead. Each
missile in the launch carrier vehicle can be independently targeted in a matter of
seconds. The mobility of the Iskander launch platform makes a launch difficult to prevent.
The Mach 7 Iskander M missile takes only about 3.5 min to
cover its full range of 500 km or 310 miles.
Depending on the part of Belarus from which it is launched,
it can hit almost any location in countries like Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland,
and Ukraine and these countries will have very limited times to react.
Putin’s disclosure has been criticized by the White House.
Principal Deputy White House Press Secretary Olivia Dalton told reporters aboard Air Force One.
“As we've said before, we believe this kind of nuclear rhetoric is highly irresponsible.
There's just no room for it. It is highly irresponsible. And I would just reiterate,
as we've also said in recent days,
we've seen no indication nor reason to adjust our nuclear posture at this moment in time."
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the Biden administration does not
believe Russia is preparing to use those weapons.
Blinken said at a news conference with Singapore’s foreign minister at the State Department,
"We’ll continue to monitor the situation very closely and very carefully. We have no reason
to adjust our own nuclear posture. We don’t see any indications that Russia is preparing to use
a nuclear weapon. The President said again this week that we remain committed to the defense of
NATO – every inch of its territory – so that is our north star and we’re very focused on that."
The transfer of nukes to Belarus is most likely to offset Russia’s
declining conventional military power. Viewers may note that the war in Ukraine
is taking a toll on the Russian military both in terms of men and material.
It is also to be taken into account that Russia will now have to face an expanded NATO
with the inclusion of Finland and an almost certain induction of Sweden in the future.
It is worth highlighting that Russia's transfer of nuclear weapons to Belarus does not violate
the multilateral Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the currently suspended bilateral
START agreement with the United States. Intriguingly, Russia's actions in Belarus
mirror what the United States is doing with its nuclear weapons in NATO countries across Europe.
It is likely that during peacetime,
the weapons would be under the supervision of Russian personnel, but in times of conflict,
they would be utilized by Belarusian personnel under the control of Moscow.
In any case, with the addition of nukes to Belarus, the world has become a less safer place.