>>> TIME MAGAZINE DESCRIBES IT AS A FIRST OF ITS KIND LIBRARY
OF POTENTIAL CORONAVIRUS DRUGS.
QUOTE, WITH A $2.1 MILLION
STARTING GRANTD FROM CHINESE
TECHNOLOGY MOGUL, JACK MA,
DR. DAVID HO WILL OVERSEE FOUR
RESEARCH TEAMS AT COLUMBIA
UNIVERSITY WHOSE GOAL IS TO FIND
AN EFFECTIVE TREATMENT AGAINST
COVID-19 AND OTHER
CORONAVIRUSES.
CORONAVIRUSES. IF YOU’RE PURSUING A PROJECT
LIKE THIS, DR. DAVID HO MIGHT BE
EXACTLY THE PERSON YOU WANT
OVERSEEING IT.
OVERSEEING IT. HIS GROUND BREAKING HIV RESEARCH
CHANGED THE COURSE OF THE AIDS
EPIDEMIC WORLDWIDE IN THE 1990s.
HE’S BEEN RESEARCHING AND
FIGHTING VIRUSES EVER SINCE.
DR. HO IS SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR
AND KRRK EO OF THE AARON DIAMOND
AIDS RESEARCH CENTER, AND I’M
VERY PLEASED TO SAY HE JOINS US
NOW.
NOW. YOU ARE FAR AWAY FROM THIS DESK,
BUT THAT’S ON PURPOSE.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
>> A PLEASURE.
>> I KNOW THAT YOU WERE ABLE TO
HEAR MY INTRODUCTION, BUT WHEN I
WAS TALKING ABOUT YOU AND YOUR
RESEARCH AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
CORONAVIRUS, I JUST WANT TO ASK
YOU IF I SAID ANYTHING THAT
WAS -- THAT SEEMED WRONG OR
WRONG HEADED TO YOU?
>> NO, YOU GOT IT RIGHT.
>> OKAY.
>> OKAY. WE ASKED YOU TODAY ABOUT THINGS
THAT WE MIGHT -- YOU MIGHT WANT
TO CONVEY TO THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE, HELP PEOPLE UNDERSTAND
BETTER ABOUT WHERE WE’RE AT WITH
THIS CORONAVIRUS PROBLEM, AND
YOU SENT US THESE GRAPHS, FAIRLY
SIMPLE GRAPHS, AND I WALKED
THROUGH THEM A LITTLE BIT.
BUT CAN YOU DESCRIBE WHAT’S
IMPORTANT?
IMPORTANT? WE CAN PUT THEM UP ON THE SCREEN
AGAIN.
AGAIN. WHAT’S IMPORTANT ABOUT THE SHAPE
THAT’S EVIDENT IN THESE GRAFSPHS
AND WHAT YOU SEE AS A SCIENTIST
LOOKING AT THESE?
>> WELL, THE FIRST GRAPH
INVOLVED WHAT HAPPENED IN CHINA
AND IN SOUTH KOREA, AND YOU
COULD SEE THE EPIDEMIC JUST TOOK
OFF BASED ON THOSE DAILY CASE
NUMBERS AND PEAKED AROUND
FEBRUARY 4th WITH 4,000 CASES A
DAY.
DAY. BUT WITH THE DRACONIAN MEASURES
IMPLEMENTED WITHIN CENTRAL
CHINA, IT GOT CONTROLLED, AND IT
WAS DROPPING EVERY WEEK BY HALF.
VERY STEADILY AND THIS PAST
WEEK, I THINK THERE ARE ONLY A
HANDFUL OF CASES OUTSIDE THE
CENTRAL PROVINCE OF HUBEI IN A
COUNTRY OF 1.2 BILLION.
SO THAT CONTROL IS REMARKABLE,
AND WHAT WAS NOT ON THE GRAPH IS
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN VARIOUS
PROVINCES AND CITIES IN CHINA,
AND THEY WERE HELD UNDER PRETTY
TIGHT CONTROL WITH NO CITY OR
PROVINCE OVER 1,500 CASES, AND
SO WHAT WAS DONE IN CHINA IS
QUITE REMARKABLE.
QUITE REMARKABLE. IN SOUTH KOREA THERE WAS ALSO A
RATHER EXPLOSIVE EPIDEMIC THAT
FOLLOWED A FEW WEEKS LATER, AND
WITHOUT IMPLEMENTING HARSH
MEASURES BUT BY SOCIAL
DISTANCING AND GOOD HYGIENE,
THEY WERE ABLE TO BRING IT DOWN,
ALBEIT WITH A SLOPE THAT’S NOT
AS SHARP.
AS SHARP. >> VERY AGGRESSIVE TEST WAS ALSO
A CHARACTERISTIC OF THE SOUTH
KOREAN RESPONSE?
KOREAN RESPONSE? >> YES, TESTING OBVIOUSLY IS
CENTRAL.
CENTRAL. WITHOUT TESTING YOU’RE BLIND,
AND IF YOU HAVE NO TESTS, YOU
HAVE NO CASES.
SO THE -- SO THE OTHER GRAPHS
THAT SHOW WHAT HAPPENED IN ITALY
AND SPAIN OCCUR WEEKS LATER, AND
IT’S FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND.
IT’S AN EXPONENTIAL GROWTH WITH
ITALY TAKING OFF FIRST, BUT NOW
SPAIN IS FOLLOWING AND GERMANY
AND MANY WESTERN EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES ARE GOING THROUGH THE
SAME THING.
SAME THING. AND THEN IN NEW YORK WHAT WE’RE
SEEING IS JUST WE’RE LAGGING
BEHIND ANOTHER COUPLE WEEKS, AND
IF WE THINK BACK 11 DAYS AGO, WE
HAD THE FIRST CASE IN NEW YORK
CITY, AND THEN THERE WERE A
HANDFUL OF CASES EVERY DAY FOR
ABOUT A WEEK, AND THEN THREE
DAYS AGO WE’RE SEEING CASES IN
THE TEENS.
THE TEENS. THAT’S THE INFLECTION POINT.
>> PART OF THE -- PART OF WHAT
WE’RE SEEING HERE IS AS THIS
MOVES THROUGH TIME WE SEE
DIFFERENT COUNTRIES DEAL WITH IT
AS IT ARRIVES AND THEN TAKES
OFF.
OFF. >> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> BUT PART OF WHAT WE’RE SEEING
HERE IS THAT EVEN WHEN THE RAW
NUMBERS ARE DIFFERENT BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL -- LIKE BETWEEN US
AND ITALY, THE RAW NUMBERS THAT
YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT HERE IN
TERMS OF MEASURING ON THESE
GRAPHS ARE DIFFERENT.
THE SHAPE OF THE CURVE BEING THE
SAME IMPLIES THAT WE ARE HEADING
IN THE SAME DIRECTION?
>> RIGHT, WE’RE JUST LAGGING
BEHIND BY A CERTAIN PERIOD OF
TIME.
TIME. CHINA STARTED OVER TWO MONTHS
AGO.
AGO. ITALY ABILITYOUT SIX WEEKS AGO,
WE’RE JUST CATCHING UP.
AND THIS IMPLIES THE SAME WAVE
OF EPIDEMIC COULD SWEEP THROUGH,
LET’S SAY MIDDLE AMERICA, WHICH
IS LAGGING BEHIND THE NEW YORK
AREA AND THE WEST COAST.
>> WITH THE SORT OF SCATTER SHOT
MITIGATION MEASURES THAT ARE
STARTING TO BE IMPLEMENTED NOW
IN THE UNITED STATES, NEW YORK
CITY SCHOOLS, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE
STILL OPEN.
STILL OPEN. WITH THE LACK OF TESTING THAT
WE’VE GOT, WHICH AS YOU SAY
LEAVES US BLIND IN TERMS OF HOW
TO TARGET THESE SORTS OF
MEASURES, DO YOU THINK THAT THE
UNITED STATES HOLDS ANY HOPE OF
BENDING THAT CURVE -- BENDING
THAT CURVE DOWN AT THIS POINT,
OR ARE WE LOOKING AT EXPLOSIVE
GROWTH FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE UNTIL WE CAN DO SOMETHING
RADICALLY DIFFERENT AS A
COUNTRY?
COUNTRY? >> WHAT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER, THE
CASES THAT WERE FOUND YESTERDAY
IN NEW YORK CITY REPRESENT WHAT
HAPPENED ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> WHEN TRANSMISSION OCCURRED.
SO WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS ABOUT A
WEEK BEHIND, AND OF COURSE THE
VIRUS COULD GO THROUGH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SPREAD, AND EXPAND AT
LEAST TENFOLD AND MAYBE TWENTY