>>> WHEN YOU HEAR HOW GREAT THE ECONOMY’S DOING RIGHT NOW.
LET’S JUST REMEMBER WHEN THIS
RECOVERY STARTED.
RECOVERY STARTED. WHEN YOU HEAR ABOUT THIS
ECONOMIC MIRACLE THAT’S BEEN
GOING ON.
GOING ON. ACTUALLY, THOSE JOB NUMBERS ARE
THE SAME AS THEY WERE IN 2015.
IN 2016.
IN 2016. >> I THINK HE’S STARTING TO TAKE
SOME CREDIT.
SOME CREDIT. HE WAS TRYING TO TAKE CREDIT FOR
THIS INCREDIBLE THING THAT’S
HAPPENING TO OUR COUNTRY.
AND YOU LOOK AT THOSE BAD
NUMBERS THAT WERE THERE IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
IT WAS THIS WAY AND GOING IN THE
WRONG DIRECTION.
WRONG DIRECTION. >> IT WASN’T GOING IN THE WRONG
DIRECTION.
DIRECTION. IT WASN’T THIS WAY.
IT WAS THIS WAY.
YOU’RE RIGHT, PRESIDENT TRUMP,
IT WASN’T THIS WAY, BUT IT
WASN’T THE WRONG DIRECTION.
YOU HEARD IT OVER AND OVER THIS
WEEKEND.
WEEKEND. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FORMER
PRESIDENT OBAMA ARGUING OVER WHO
SHOULD GET CREDIT FOR THE
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY. A CRITICAL ISSUE FOR THE
MIDTERMS.
MIDTERMS. SO LET’S LOOK AT THE NUMBERS.
IN THE 19 MONTHS SINCE PRESIDENT
TRUMP TOOK OVER, THE ECONOMY HAS
ADDED ABOUT 3.5 MILLION JOBS.
IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS OF THE
OBAMA PRESIDENCY, THE ECONOMY
ADDED NEARLY 4 MILLION JOBS.
ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THAT
WOULD BE TO COMPARE THE AVERAGE
JOB GAINS PER MONTH.
IT SHOWS PRESIDENT OBAMA
AVERAGING ABOUT 208,000 JOBS
ADDED SINCE JULY 2015 COMPARED
TO AN AVERAGE OF 188,000 JOBS
UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP.
THE PRESIDENT ALSO LIKES TO BRAG
THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS
NEAR ITS LOWEST POINT IN
DECADES.
DECADES. HE’S RIGHT.
HE’S RIGHT. PLEASE LOOK AT THIS CHART.
THE JOBLESS RATE HAS BEEN
DROPPING STEADILY FOR MORE THAN
NINE YEARS.
NINE YEARS. THAT’S OBAMA TERRITORY.
THAT SAID, THERE HAVE BEEN BIG
MILESTONES ON TRUMP’S WATCH.
THE MARKETS ARE NEAR RECORD
HIGHS.
HIGHS. WAGES ARE STARTING TO RISE.
AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AT
LEAST A GENERATION, THERE ARE
MORE OPEN JOBS THAN JOB
SEEKERINGS.
SEEKERINGS. BUT HOW MUCH OF THAT IS BECAUSE
OF THE PRESIDENT’S POLICIES?
THE CENTER FOR ECONOMIC POLICY
RESEARCH DID A STEADUDY IN JULY
FOUND WHEN COMPARING SIMILAR
ECONOMIC MODELS, AN ECONOMY
WITHOUT TRUMP DOES ABOUT THE
SAME AS AN ECONOMY WITH TRUMP.
IN OTHER WORDS THERE IS NO TRUMP
EFFECT.
EFFECT. I WANT TO BRING IN AUSTIN GOALS
BUY, FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA.
HE’S CURRENTLY THE PRODUCER AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO BOOTH
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS.
HE SAID PRESIDENT TRUMP DID NOT
DO MUCH TO HELP THE ECONOMY.
WHAT’S YOUR TAKE?
>> THAT’S ABOUT RIGHT.
WE’VE HAD ABOUT 115 MONTHS OF
PRIVATE SECTOR JOB GROWTH, AND
19 OF THOSE WERE UNDER TRUMP, SO
WHAT IS THAT, LIKE 15%?
I DON’T SEE HOW YOU COME INTO
THE GAME WITH 10 MINUTES LEFT IN
THE FOURTH QUARTER.
YOUR TEAM IS ALREADY AHEAD AND
YOU’RE, LIKE, I WON THIS GAME.
YES, IT HASN’T GOTTEN WORSE.
JOB GROWTH’S A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER.
SLOWER. BUT THE ECONOMY’S GOING OKAY.
I THINK THE SHAME IS ON US FOR
LETTING PRESIDENT TRUMP TRUMPET
ONLY THE NEWS ON THE DAYS IT’S
GOOD AND THEN CHANGE THE SUBJECT
IF THE NUMBERS COME IN NOT AS
GOOD.
GOOD. SO WE HAD ONE GOOD QUARTER OF
GDP.
GDP. LAST QUARTER, ALL OF LAST YEAR,
IT WAS MEDIOCRE.
>> IF THE ECONOMY WAS SO GOOD,
IF THE JOBS PICTURE WAS SO ROSY
UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHERE DO
ALL THOSE FORGOTTEN AMERICANS
COME FROM THAT ROSE UP AND SAID
I WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT WHO
VOTED FOR TRUMP?
>> WELL, THAT’S -- THERE’S AN
IMPLICIT THEORY IN THAT
STATEMENT AND YOUR THEORY WAS IT
WAS ABOUT ECONOMICS, WHY DONALD
TRUMP WON.
TRUMP WON. I DON’T SUBSCRIBE TO THAT
THEORY.
THEORY. I THINK IT WAS A LOT MORE
COMPLICATED.
COMPLICATED. THERE WAS A LOT OF RACIAL
RESENTMENT.
RESENTMENT. THERE WERE ISSUES ABOUT
IMMIGRATION.
IMMIGRATION. AND THINGS LIKE THAT WERE MORE
IMPORTANT THAN THE JOBS WERE.
BUT, I MEAN, JUST LOOK AT THE
NUMBERS.
NUMBERS. AS YOU JUST SHOWED, THE JOB
CREATION WAS ACTUALLY STRONGER
UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA.
AT BEST, YOU WOULD SAY IT’S BEEN
A CONTINUATION OF A STEADY TREND
AFTER WE AVOIDED A DEPRESSION.
WE’VE BEEN CHUGGING A LONG AND
WE’RE NOW ONE OF THE LONGEST
BOOMS IN U.S. ECONOMIC HISTORY.
>> LET’S TALK ABOUT BUSINESS
CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENCE. JEFF COX OF CNBC WROTE THIS.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS SOARING,
IN PART THANKS TO A SOFTER
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT.
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT. CONSUMER SENTIMENT BY ONE
MEASURE IS AT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL
IN 18 YEARS.
CORPORATE PROFITS, OWED IN GOOD
PARTS TO LAST YEAR’S TAX CUTS,
IS GETTING CLOSE TO SETTING
RECORDS.
RECORDS. EACH OF THOSE ACCOMPLISHMENTS
CAN BE TIED EITHER DIRECTLY TO
NEW POLICIES OR AT LEAST
INDIRECTLY THROUGH A BRIMMING
SENSE OF HOPE FROM BUSINESSES
THAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS BACK ON
THEIR SIDE.
THEIR SIDE. NOW, I SPEAK TO CEOs ALL THE
TIME.
TIME. WHETHER THEY LIKE TRUMP OR NOT,
THEY WILL SAY IT IS A MORE
BUSINESS FRIENDLY ADMINISTRATION
WHEN PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS IN
OFFICE.
OFFICE. THE THREAT, THE REGULATORY
OVERHANG.
OVERHANG. NOT KNOWING WHAT REGULATION WAS
GOING TO COME DOWN THE PIKE
PREVENTED THEM FROM REINVESTING
AND HIRING.
AND HIRING. >> WELL, STEPHANIE, I GUESS MY
QUESTION IS, WHY, THEN, WAS JOB
CREATION FASTER UNDER PRESIDENT
OBAMA.
OBAMA. IF THIS REGULATORY CLOUD WAS SO
DETRIMENTAL, WHY WAS GDP GROWTH
IN 2017 ONLY 2.2%.
I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT
CORPORATIONS GOT A $2 TRILLION
TAX CUT.
TAX CUT. THEY’RE HAPPY ABOUT THAT.
YOU SEE IN THEIR CORPORATE
PROFITS.
PROFITS. THEY’VE NEVER HAD HIGHER
CORPORATE PROFITS THAN THEY DO
NOW.
NOW. THAT HASN’T TRANSLATED INTO
FASTER JOB GROWTH.
THAT HASN’T TRANSLATED INTO
FASTER WAGE GROWTH.
AND SO I’M GLAD THAT THEY FEEL
GOOD ABOUT THEMSELVES.
BUT, LIKE MANY THINGS, LIKE THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS GETTING
DOWN TO CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IT STARTED GETTING BETTER MANY
YEARS AGO.
YEARS AGO. AND IT’S CONTINUED AT AROUND THE
SAME RATE.
SAME RATE. AND NOW WE’RE AT A LEVEL THAT’S
VERY LOW.
VERY LOW. OKAY.
OKAY. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN JANUARY
OF 2009 IN THE MIDST OF THE
FINANCIAL CRISIS WAS RATHER LOW.
SO WE HAD A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL
IMPROVEMENT OF BUSINESS
CONFIDENCE AND IT’S CONTINUED TO
GET BETTER.
GET BETTER. >> YOU MAKE EXCELLENT POINTS.
CONGRESSMAN, TAKE ME TO THE BLUE
COLLAR WORKER.
COLLAR WORKER. YOU’RE A FORMER ELECTRICIAN
YOURSELF, PART OF A UNION.
I UNDERSTAND WHY BIG BUSINESS IS
SUPER ON THE PRESIDENT.
THOSE TAX CUTS WERE OUT OF THIS
WORLD.
WORLD. BUT THE ARGUMENT HAS BEEN IT’S
GOING TO TRIMLE DOWN TO WORKERS.
WE’RE NOT SEEING THAT YET IN THE
NUMBERS.
NUMBERS. TELL ME WHAT YOUR VOTERS ARE
TELLING YOU.
TELLING YOU. >> WELL, THIS IS THE WORLD
ACCORDING TO TRUMP.
>> AND GUESS WHAT, HE’S A GREAT
SALESMAN.
SALESMAN. >> ABSOLUTELY.
>> ABSOLUTELY. THE TRUMP IS GOING 60 MILES PER
HOUR WHEN HE TOOK OVER.
HE JUMPED IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT
AND STILL GOING 60.
HE HASN’T CRASHED IT YET BUT
WE’LL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
I WAS JUST ON THE JOB LAST WEEK
TALKING TO MEN AND WOMEN.
THEY’RE STILL WAITING FOR THAT
GREAT TAX EFFECT TO HIT THEM.
IT HASN’T.
IT HASN’T. YOU KNOW, SAYING THE JOB IS THE
MOST IMPORTANT THING IS ONLY
HALF THE STORY.
A JOB THAT ACTUALLY PAYS ENOUGH
MONEY FOR YOU TO TAKE CARE OF
THE FAMILY IS THE TRUE STORY.
SO PEOPLE HAVE JOB, BUT IT
WASN’T WHAT THEY ENJOYED.
EVEN A DECADE AGO.
YOU KNOW.
YOU KNOW. IF THEY LOST THEIR JOB IN THE
AUTOMOBILE PLANT MAKING 30 BUCKS
AN OUR, THEY’RE REEMPLOYED TODAY
MAKING A FRACTION OF THAT.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE COMING ON IS
CORPORATE AMERICA IN GENERAL HAS
MOVED THE RETIREMENT ISSUE OFF
THEIR PLATTER AND BACK ON TO THE
NEXT GENERATION.
NEXT GENERATION. WE HAVE A TRAIN COMING DOWN THE
ROAD THAT ARE GOING TO DEVASTATE
OUR SENIORS.
OUR SENIORS. STEADY LAST WEEK, 1 IN 5 HAVE
LESS THAN $5,000 PUT AWAY FOR
THEIR RETIREMENT.
THEIR RETIREMENT. $5,000.
$5,000. >> BUT WE’RE LEARNING IN A WORLD
OF SHORT TERMISM.
WHERE PEOPLE AREN’T VOTING
ACCORDING TO THAT.
THEY’RE NOT SAYING WE HAVE A
LONG-TERM PROBLEM.
LONG-TERM PROBLEM. BRETT, YOU HAVE ALL THESE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE VOTED FOR THE PRESIDENT
WHO BUY INTO HIS -- I’M JUST
GOING TO CALL IT EXTRAORDINARILY
SHOWMANSHIP AND SALESMANSHIP.
HE’S NOT ACTUALLY DELIVERING THE
NUMBERS.
NUMBERS. WHEN ARE THEY GOING TO START TO
WAKE UP AND SAY OH, MY GOD,
THESE TAX CUTS ONLY HELPED
CORPORATE AMERICA, THEY’RE NEVER
GOING TO GET TO ME?
>> I’M NOT SURE I AGREE WITH THE
PREMISE OF YOUR QUESTION.
WAGE GROWTH HAS BEEN SLOW BUT
IT’S STARTING TO PICK UP.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT IS STRONGER
THAN IT’S BEEN IN A LONG TIME.
SOMETHING THAT AUSTIN WAS
SAYING, YES, IT’S TRUE THAT JOB
GROWTH HAS BEEN SLOW, BECAUSE WE
ARE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FULL
EMPLOYMENT.
EMPLOYMENT. IT’S EASIER TO BRING
UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN FROM ITS
HEIGHTS IN 2009, 9%, 10%, DOWN
TO 6% OR 7%, THEN IT IS ONCE
YOU’RE REACHING FULL EMPLOYMENT.
I THINK DEMOCRATS HAVE A REAL
PROBLEM HERE.
PROBLEM HERE. THEY HAVE TO BE CAREFUL.
I REMEMBER RIGHT AFTER THE
ELECTION, VERY PROMINENT,
DEMOCRAT-LEANING ECONOMISTS
DEMOCRAT-LEANING ECONOMISTS SAYING THE STOCK MARKET IS GOING
TO TANK.
TO TANK. WE’RE GOING TO GO INTO -- THE
WORLD ECONOMY IS GOING TO
COLLAPSE.
COLLAPSE. NONE OF THAT HAPPENED.
OF COURSE TRUMP IS OVERSELLING
THE ECONOMY.
THE ECONOMY. OF COURSE HE’S TAKING CREDIT FOR
THINGS HE’S NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR.
BUT DEMOCRATS RUN THE RISK OF
BEING SOUR ABOUT AN ECONOMY
THAT’S ACTUALLY DOING PRETTY
WELL, ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
AND IF WAGE GROWTH STARTS TO
GROW UP, THEN THAT’S GOING TO BE
A PROBLEM ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE
WHEN REPUBLICANS SAY, HEY, YOU
GUYS WERE SAYING THAT WAGE
GROWTH WAS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN
AND NOW IT IS.
IT REMINDS ME A LITTLE BIT OF
THE WAY PEOPLE LIKE BOB DOLE AND
JACK KEMP WERE TALKING ABOUT THE
ECONOMY IN THE 1990s WHEN BILL
CLINTON STEAM ROLLED TO AN
ELECTION.
ELECTION. I’M JUST CAUTIONING DEMOCRATS TO
BE CAREFUL ABOUT BEING THE BAD
NEWS NINIS ABOUT WHAT IS A
ROBUST ECONOMY MOVING WELL PAST
WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A SELL BY
DATE FOR A NEW RECESSION.
>> THE ECONOMY’S GONE BUT IT’S
LEAVING THE LITTLE GUY BEHIND
AND THAT’S THE DIFFERENCE.
>> AUSTIN, DO YOU WANT TO
COMMENT ON THAT?
BECAUSE AS MUCH AS WE SAY ISSUES
LIKE REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS AND
IMMIGRATION MATTER TO VOTERS, IF
VOTERS HAVE MONEY IN THEIR
POCKET, EVEN A LITTLE BIT MORE,
AND THEY FEEL CONFIDENT, THAT’S
HOW THEY VOTE.
>> YES AND NO.
LOOK, I THINK THAT THERE IS A
DANGER.
DANGER. I THOUGHT THAT WAS INSIGHTFUL.
THERE IS A DANGER IF THE
DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO SAY THE
ECONOMY IS NOT GOOD.
I THINK THE ECONOMY’S GOING
PRETTY WELL.
PRETTY WELL. MY ONLY POINT IS IT’S NOT THAT
MUCH BETTER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN.
BEEN. AND I THINK THE DANGER FOR THE
REPUBLICANS, IF IT’S GOING TO BE
ABOUT THE ECONOMY, IS THEY
PASSED A $2 TRILLION TAX CUT FOR
BIG CORPORATIONS AND HIGH-INCOME
PEOPLE.
PEOPLE. IF YOU REMEMBER, THEY SOLD THAT
BY SAYING THAT THE AVERAGE
WORKER WAS GOING TO GET A $4,000
RAISE.
RAISE. THAT’S WHAT THEY SAID.
SO PEOPLE ARE GOING AROUND
SAYING #WHERE’S MY $4,000.
SO WAGES MIGHT GO UP A LITTLE.
I HOPE THEY DO.
BUT, YOU KNOW, IF THEY ECONOMY
IS MAINLY GOING TO DELIVER FOR
BIG CORPORATIONS THAT ALREADY
HAD RECORD LEVELS OF PROFIT AND
FOR HIGH-INCOME PEOPLE, WHO
ALREADY WERE DOING REALLY WELL,
I THINK THERE’S A DANGER FOR THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY TO KIND OF GET
THEMSELVES OUT ON AN ISLAND THAT
EVERYBODY ELSE IS NOT ON.
>> REMEMBER, THERE’S A VERY BIG
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WORKERS
GETTING A ONE-TIME BONUS AND A