JOINING US NOW, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR BUT SO MUCH MORE
THAN THAT, MIKE BARNICLE AND GUY
CECIL.
CECIL. THE LATEST POLL SHOWS A FOUR-WAY
TIE IN THE RACE FOR THE
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION THERE IN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
NEW HAMPSHIRE. MAYOR PETE BUTTIGIEG LEADS THE
FIELD WITH 20%.
HE’S UP TEN POINTS JUST SINCE
SEPTEMBER.
SEPTEMBER. FORMER VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN
AT 19%.
AT 19%. HE’S DOWN SIX.
SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS AT 18%,
HE’S UP SIX POINTS.
THOSE THREE SIT WITHIN THE
POLL’S FOIR POUNTPOLL
POLL’S 4.9 MARGIN OF ERROR.
AND SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN IS
DOWN 12 POINTS SINCE SEPTEMBER.
AMY KLOBUCHAR ROUNDING OUT THE
TOP 5 WITH 6%, SHE’S UP FOUR.
AS WE LEAVE THAT UP FOR A
MOMENT, JUST A SNAPSHOT OF WHERE
WE ARE RIGHT NOW IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, WHAT DO YOU SEE?
>> I THINK NEW HAMPSHIRE IS
REFLECTIVE OF WHAT WE’RE SEEING
AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHICH IS
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOVEMENT
INSIDE THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY.
YOU STILL HAVE OVER HALF OF THE
VOTERS IN MOST STATES THAT ARE
EARLY SAYING THAT THEY HAVEN’T
FIRMLY DECIDED WHO THEIR FIRST
CHOICE IS.
CHOICE IS. YOU SEE FIVE, SIX, SOMETIMES
TEN-POINT SWINGS.
TEN-POINT SWINGS. THE REALITY IS GOING INTO THE
FINAL MONTH, IOWA, NEW
HAMPSHIRE, THE EARLY STATES ARE
ALL REALLY A JUMP BALL FOR THREE
TO FOUR CANDIDATES.
IT WILL BE EXCITING TO WATCH.
>> THAT’S THE CORRECTED PHRASE,
JUMP BALL.
JUMP BALL. IT’S EXTREMELY VOLATILE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
HAMPSHIRE. THE SURPRISING THING TO ME IS
BERNIE SANDERS IS NOT AS POPULAR
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE -- WAS AS
POPULAR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, HE’S
NOT DOING AS WELL IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH THE VOTERS AS DID
HE FOUR YEARS AGO.
JOE BIDEN HAS TREMENDOUS
RESILIENCE, BUT IT’S STILL THE
FOUR OF THEM, JUMP BALL.
WHO KNOWS WHAT’S GOING TO
HAPPEN.
HAPPEN. >> YOU LOOK AT TWO BIG SWINGS,
BUTTIGIEG UP TEN AND WARREN DOWN
12, DOES THAT SAY TO YOU THAT
THIS PARTY FROM A SURVIVAL POINT
OF VIEW SAYS WE HAVE TO BE IN
THE CENTER.
THE CENTER. IF WE GO TOO HARD LEFT WE LOSE
AND RE-ELECT DONALD TRUMP.
>> I’LL TELL YOU ONE THING ABOUT
BEING IN THE CENTER, YOU’RE
RIGHT.
RIGHT. AND THE SOLEIMANI HIT, THAT
RESONATED IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, MANCHESTER, PLACES
LIKE THAT, PEOPLE WERE NOT
OPPOSED TO THE HIT ITSELF.
>> I THINK AS WE GET GO FORWARD,
THE BIDENS, THE BUTTIGIEGS, I
BELIEVE BLOOMBERG WHEN HE GETS
IN, TOM STEYER IN SOUTH CAROLINA
WHICH WE’LL GET TO IS A
PREKEARSER OFPRE
PREKEARSER OFPRE PRECURSOR OF WHAT MONEY CAN DO
FOR YOU.
FOR YOU. I THINK THE MORE CENTRALIST
CANDIDATES WILL RULE THE DAY.
>> BERNIE SANDERS IS HOPING TO
DO WELL THERE, SHOWING NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHICH YOU’VE SHOWN IN
OTHER PLACES A DIP OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MONTHS FROM THE FALL NOW
INTO THE UP IN YEAR.
>> YEAH, AND IT REMAINS A REAL
CHALLENGE FOR HER CAMPAIGN TO
STEM THAT.
STEM THAT. BUT, GUY CECIL, IT’S FASCINATING
YOU HAVE TWO FAVORITE -- ONE A
FAVORITE SON, ONE A FAVORITE
DAUGHTER FROM NEIGHBORING
MASSACHUSETTS AND NEIGHBORING
VERMONT.
VERMONT. USUALLY YOU COULD SAY IN THE OLD
DAYS, TOM HARKEN, HE WINS IOWA,
SONGUS DOES WELL IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
HAMPSHIRE. IT SEEMS IF YOU LOOK AT THAT
POLL IF IT IS FLATTENING OUT,
YOU HAVE A FORMER MAYOR FROM
SOUTH BEND, INDIANA, DOING WELL
AND BIDEN.
AND BIDEN. IT REALLY DOES SEEM LIKE WE HAVE
THE COMPLETE NATIONALIZATION OF
THESE CONTESTS, THAT IT’S NO
LONGER -- YOU’RE NOT GOING TO
HAVE FAVORITE SONS AND FAVORITE
DAUGHTERS DOING AS WELL JUST
BECAUSE OF WHERE THEY SERVE.
>> I THINK THAT’S RIGHT.
AND I THINK IT’S ESPECIALLY TRUE
THIS YEAR WHEN YOU HAVE SO MANY
CANDIDATES.
CANDIDATES. NOT TO GET INTO THE ARCANE
DELEGATE RULES, BUT THE MOST
IMPORTANT NUMBER IN ALL OF THESE
POLLS IS 15.
BECAUSE IN ORDER TO GET
DELEGATES, YOU MUST MEET A
THRESHOLD OF 15%, EITHER IN A
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT OR IN A
STATEWIDE RACE.
STATEWIDE RACE. SO WHAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE ONCE
YOU GET INTO THESE TIME DAYS,
IT’S WHAT KIND OF ORGANIZATION
DO YOU HAVE ON THE GROUND?
AND SO FROM A MEDIA PERSPECTIVE,
FROM A POLL PERSPECTIVE, WE HAVE
NATIONALIZED OUR ELECTIONS.
BUT IF YOU’RE GOING TO BE SURE
TO GET OVER THAT 15% THRESHOLD
AND LOOK AT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE
POLL, THERE’S A LOT OF FOLKS
RIGHT ON THAT BUBBLE.
THE ORGANIZING ON THE GROUND