A Bitcoin supercycle, can it happen?
Well, sure.
Have we seen one before?
It depends on how you look at it.
We've seen some large percentage moves.
What about high dollar amount moves?
Could we see Bitcoin hit $500,000 or $1 million in this next cycle?
Well, let me give you the answer.
Let's get it!
Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
My name is Ben.
Today, we're going to be taking a look at a Bitcoin supercycle
and what, number wise, it would require to get us there.
Now, you guys know Bitcoin works on 4-year cycles.
If you've read my book or if you've ever watched my channel,
we talk about the Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory.
It's been tried and true, tested over and over and over again.
And right now we're exactly where we should be for Bitcoin.
But what would it require Bitcoin to do in order to get a supercycle?
And let me give you my definition of a supercycle.
My definition of a supercycle at this point would be
a cycle where the Bitcoin price reverses
and utterly blows away the idea of diminishing returns.
Now, what do we mean by diminishing returns?
So when you look back at the history of Bitcoin,
you look at the first major bull run that we had from the bottom to the top,
it was a 50,000% return.
You come and you look at the next one from the bottom to the top,
it was an 11,500% return.
Then we go here to the next cycle,
and you will see from this bottom right here to the top,
about a 2,000% return.
So what you're seeing is,
these returns are getting less and less and less over time.
This is what we consider to be diminishing returns.
So we need this to reverse to have a supercycle.
Because right now,
so if you were to look right here at the all-time high of Bitcoin back in 2017,
and you were to forecast this over here to the new all-time high,
that's almost exactly a 3.5X return.
So if we get less than a $400,000 Bitcoin,
that means that diminishing returns will continue.
Now, I think safe numbers look between $105,000 to $120,000 for Bitcoin.
But to get a supercycle, we have to reverse the diminishing returns.
That means Bitcoin's got to go above $400,000 in this cycle.
Now, what can we look for to determine whether or not this is true?
What you're going to want to look at is you're going to want to look at the last halving.
That would have been in May of 2020.
So if you look here and you were to say,
"Okay. Where was that price at the time of the halving?"
The price around the halving was around $9,000, actually, the day of the halving. Okay?
So it was at $9,000.
Basically, that would have been 45% of the previous all-time high,
around $20,000.
Because 20, 9,000, 45%.
So, what we would need to see is we will need Bitcoin to be above this threshold.
It would need to be above this range right here in order for this to potentially become a supercycle.
We would need to be ahead of the pace at the time of the halving.
Now, when is the next halving going to be?
The next halving is going to be in 2024.
Probably going to be somewhere in February or March.
It's going to be somewhere in this range right here.
This is about where it's going to be.
Now, the previous all-time high of Bitcoin was what?
Okay. So, let's dice this out here.
Okay. So, in May of 2020,
okay, the price of Bitcoin was at about $9,000 at the time of the halving.
So the all-time high was in December of 2017.
And it was approximately $20,000.
So, this is 45%.
So, at the time of the halving in the next one,
which is going to be-- we're just going to call it March of 2024.
We already know the previous all-time high.
November of 2021,
we know that the price of Bitcoin peaked out.
We're just going to call it $70,000 for nice round numbers.
So, what we need to figure out is we need to figure out,
what number will be greater than 45%?
And that's how we'll know on March 2024
if we're ahead of the pace and we may see a supercycle.
We need to go into the cycle at a higher number, in my opinion, to be able to get there.
So, the point here is this.
What number is 45% of 70,000?
Now, I'm going to really impress you guys here by doing some math here.
So, if each one-- if 70--
7,000 is 10%.
3,500 is going to be 5%.
So we're going to divide this in two.
3,500--
35,000
And then we're going to subtract 3,500.
And that is going to get us $31,500.
We must be above this number in order to be on track for a supercycle.
- Was that math right, Aaron? - Yeah.
Aaron was on the background checking my math.
Hey, guys, I'm a whiz kid.
What can I say?
I'm a bigger math nerd than SBF and Caroline combined.
So the point is,
here's what we want to see.
We want to see this be drastically above 45%.
We want to see Bitcoin be somewhere in the $40K to $50K range.
If it is in this range at the time of the halving,
that's when I think we can potentially get a supercycle.
These are the numbers that we're looking for.
I hope you enjoyed this video.
If you do, make sure to give it a like, subscribe to the channel,
if you like people that can actually do math live.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.