Less than two months until the midterm elections. Republican governors
are pushing to make immigration and the southern border a key issue.
Meanwhile, President Biden and former President Trump are out making
their cases for voters and here to discuss it all. Amy Walter of
the Cook Political report with Amy Walter and asthma hollered of
NPR. Tamara Keith.
Is a way Hello to both of you on this Monday to talk about so much
I do want to start with a rally that Amy that former President Trump
had over the weekend in Ohio, where he was making a number of statements
and at one point or during the rally there was music played, which
has been compared to the theme song of the Extremist group.
Uh, believes with an extreme set of beliefs called Q and on, let's
listen.
We are a nation that has weaponized its law enforcement against the
opposing political party.
Like never ever before.
We've got a federal Bureau of investigation that won't allow bad.
Election changing facts to be presented to the public, so people
holding up their hands and the symbol that again that seems to suggest
Q and on. But what what? Where does this leave the former president
as he goes out and tries to appeal to voters for the candidates he's
campaigning for. That's exactly the right question. And it's one
that many Republican strategist especially strategist for candidates
in so many of these swing states, Arizona or Georgia or Nevada, New
Hampshire.
I would like the
The former president comes in. They would like him to stick to a
script that focuses less on 2020 and a lot more on Joe Biden and
the economy. But how many times have we heard that from Republican
strategist who would tell us always off the record? If only
President Trump could stay on message someday. Maybe he'll be able
to do it. But his message is for his voters. Now, the the reality
is the people who made it through these primaries in these key Senate
races.
Were once that Donald Trump has endorsed and supported and those
candidates are now trying to spend the next 50 days showing. They're
basically trying to pivot away from Trump away from the idea that
they are part of this extremist group. They don't want this election
to be a referendum once again on Trump and his
Views on a whole bunch of things continues to talk about these things
that you've been out on the campaign trail
in in recent times in recent months, What do you What do you see?
How do you see these? These remarks and this message playing? I mean,
it. Is this sense right that that we see time and again, President
Trump is making this midterm election not about it Referendum on
President Biden. We always hear that That's the case, and that's
not what's happening. And I think that's much to the delight of Democrats
that I talked to. There is a sin.
Is that if this were truly just a referendum on President Biden say
on the state of the economy, that would be a bigger challenge for
Democrats. But every time president former president Trump interjects
and you know, it just turns the conversation away. One thing that
I am sort of confused about that. I will say I was in Florida the
week that the moral Lago search took place and I went to a Republican
club meeting there was speaking with a number of women. And there
was a sense that perhaps more than the economy that the search of
the former president's home could
Really energized Republican based voters. So I will say that to me
is still unclear that the degree of energy that might have for Republican
based voters, But when you talk about independence, I mean, no, I
don't think this is really energizing them. And we'll see because
that that issue of what happened at Mara Lago still playing out in
the court, and we'll see where that goes.
So there's a new poll that comes out and we don't look at. We don't
pay attention to every single poll. But this one struck us as interesting.
This is the New York Times and Sienna College looked at Hispanic
voters in a large group of Hispanic voters voters. They surveyed
Amy and what they what you see should be good news for Democrats,
as 56% say they're supporting Democrats 32%.
Ah ah, Republican. On the other hand, that's the Democrats want to
think they're going to do a whole lot better win 70% of these voters,
which is when we were talking. That's right
in the past, certainly during the Obama era and remember Obama, his
message in 2012 and 2008, but continued in 2012 was
Basically one of Democrat demographic destiny that eventually the
fact that this country is getting, uh more more and more folks
who are coming in who into the voting age who are Latino. That's
only going to help Democrats. I talked to a Democratic group today.
Actually, who put out their own numbers on Latino voters. They are
focused or progressive organization focused on Latino voters. They
had very similar data.
Their takeaway was this
The good news is we're not doing any worse among voters Latino than
we were in 2020. We seem to be just sort of stuck in where things
ended up in 2020 and the group that has moved the most not surprising
younger men and the economy. Still the biggest issue. It was a big
issue in 2020. It's obviously an issue there. The other thing this
person told me is, you know, Look, these these voters we assumed
for years.
That at the end of the day, they were always going to break for Democrats.
We can't assume that anymore.
What are you hearing about this? I agree with that. I mean, there's
also geographic diversity, right? And you do see that Republicans
tend to do better with Latino voters in both Texas and Florida. Obviously,
both of those being very key states as we look to the midterm election
cycles, But
I think that there is a sense as you were saying that for years,
Democrats had assumed that they would be able to gain a certain percentage
of Latino voters. And we saw that the former president did actually
better with Hispanic voters in 2020 than he did in 2016. I think
to the surprise
Sized
Of many Democratic analysts. But what I hear often from specifically
young, younger Latino voters is a sense that the Democratic Party
has taken their vote for granted for years, and they want greater
outreach. And on the flip side, you have seen a Republican party
that is making a strong effort to court. Those same voters and the
demographics now working against Democrats. It's younger or maybe
more middle aged thirties to forties Latinos who are more Republican
leaning. It's actually the older voters that are the
Most supportive of Democrats. So as new voters agent that doesn't
necessarily mean a good thing for Democrats can. What can Democrats
say? Smell good? It's always a saying. This is what I hear that Republicans
have shown up that after I would say the 2020 election, they built
these centers in different communities right to specifically court
minority groups, different groups, but specifically, let's say in
a certain communities, Latino voters what I heard in 2016 and 2020
from specifically younger Latino voters was the sense of Democrats
show up.
Around election cycles, and then they disappear. And there is a sense
that there's not been a lack of an O that there has been a lack of
investment in infrastructure and follow through on promises. And
look, you know, the bad administration came in promising comprehensive
immigration reform. You know, to his credit President Biden did put
forth something right at the outset when he came into office, but
it's gone nowhere, and I think there's a sense of frustration from
some younger voters who do want to see immigration reform who wanted
to see permanent status. Not just a deferred action status has been
the case.
I mean this this This just echoes Amy campaigns I've covered frankly,
for decades
with Latino Hispanic voters, saying We're just they come visit us
right before the election and African American voters to which is
soured many of those younger voters, But remember to this is again
the For the flip side where Democrats are doing better.
This Democrat said to me Look, Republicans still haven't really sold
these voters. They haven't really finished
close the deal right that, yes, they can get a certain percent of
the vote. But there is a wall that those voters hit with, um, with
the Republicans drive. A lot of it is derived from the fact they
still see Republicans as the party of the wealthy and the elites
and
There we go. And we can't forget again. How diverse this Latino.
Exactly. It is not monolithic. Amy Walter Osma Holland. Thank you