In late December 2023, a series of attacks in
central Nigeria left anywhere up to 500 people dead and wounded.
While it's still unclear who was behind the deadly violence,
suspicion has fallen on Northern cattle herders.
If so, it would be a severe escalation of one of
the country's most serious internal security problems,
and could further inflame ethnic and religious tensions across Africa's most populous country.
So, what exactly lies behind this violence? Why does it seem to be
becoming more deadly? And can it in fact be stopped?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Conflict often stems from competition over limited resources.
Scarce commodities like land, water, minerals,
and energy become focal points for tensions, triggering disputes.
But while we often think of these as wars between states,
competition for resources can also lead to conflicts within countries.
In such cases, control or access to resources can amplify ethnic and religious tensions.
A good example is Nigeria.
For many years, there have been growing tensions between nomadic and semi-nomadic Muslim cattle
herders from the north and predominantly Christian farmers in the Middle Belt and the South.
However, this conflict appears to be becoming more
deadly in the face of increasing domestic and global pressures.
Aside from the immediate harm this is doing to the communities directly affected,
the attacks are increasingly posing a threat to peace and stability across the entire country.
The Federal Republic of Nigeria lies in West Africa.
Its neighbours are Niger to the north, Chad and Cameroon to the east, and Benin to the west.
The Gulf of Guinea, a part of the Atlantic Ocean, runs along its southern coast.
At roughly 935,000 square km or 360,000 square miles, it's the 31st largest country in the world.
And since 1996, it's been divided into 36 states across six distinct geopolitical zones.
Its population is around 225 million, making it the most populous African country.
This is made up of more than 250 ethnolinguistic groups.
In the north, the most prominent groups are the closely interlinked Hausa and Fulani,
representing around 30% of the population.
The Yoruba, based in the southwest, constitute around 20%.
And the Igbo, also around 20%, dominate the southeast.
As well as ethnic divisions, the country is also divided religiously.
While the majority in the north are Sunni Muslims,
Protestant Christians dominate the South Central and Southeast areas.
In the centre and Southwest, the population is mixed.
Nigeria has a rich and fascinating history.
However, our story really starts when nomadic Fulani herders began
migrating into northern Nigeria in the 13th and 14th centuries.
Once there, the Fulani gradually assimilated with the established Hausa communities,
leading to cultural and even political integration.
However, while the Hausa remained farmers and traders,
many Fulani retained their nomadic and semi-nomadic traditions.
This continued even as European imperial expansion gathered pace in the late 19th century and Britain
established two colonial territories: the Northern and Southern Nigerian protectorates.
While these were initially kept separate, following a financial crisis in the North
in 1914, they were merged to form the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria.
Following the Second World War, Britain began the process of decolonization.
In preparation for this, Nigeria was reorganised as a federation of
three states in 1954: the Hausa and Fulani-dominated Northern Region,
the Yoruba-dominated Western Region, and the Igbo-dominated Eastern Region.
And on 1 October 1960, Nigeria gained its independence.
Although there were hopes that the new state could come together, problems soon emerged.
Political instability between the North and South led to several coups.
In 1967, the country was plunged into a bitter and brutal Civil
War as the Christian Igbo-dominated Southeast attempted to break away.
Although Nigerian forces retook the area three years later,
pro-independence sentiment remained and has been undergoing a resurgence in recent years.
Meanwhile, over the decades that followed, a host of other problems emerged.
The discovery of oil in the Delta region in the South also led to separatist sentiment,
fuelled by extreme ecological damage.
And over in the Yoruba-dominated Southwest, there have also been signs of secessionist feeling,
as well as a growing problem with cult violence.
Meanwhile, the Muslim-dominated North experienced growing Islamist insurgents.
As well as Boko Haram, which came to International prominence when it
kidnapped over 200 schoolgirls in 2014, there's also been increasing activity by other groups,
including offshoots of al-Qaeda and Islamic State.
In addition, there's been a growing problem with banditry.
But in recent years one issue has come to the for as perhaps the most severe security
challenge facing the country: the growing tensions between Northern Muslim Fulani
herders and predominantly Christian farmers in the centre and south of the country.
While the problem has become prominent over the past decade,
the issue has long routs dating back to colonial times.
However, several distinct factors have accelerated the process in recent decades.
For a start, there's the country's demographic explosion.
Nigeria's population has grown massively, from an estimated 45 million inhabitants at
independence to almost a quarter of a billion today - an annual growth rate of around 6.5%.
This has led to greater demands on land,
not only to provide food for the growing population but also to provide housing.
As cities and towns have grown,
new settlements have overrun the pastoral lands the cattle once used for grazing.
This has forced herders to search for new territory.
And this is where the second and more significant problem emerges.
While usually, one may have expected that the Fulani herders would have stayed in the north,
this has become more and more difficult as the effects of climate change are increasingly felt.
As temperatures rise, the Northern areas have become steadily less hospitable.
With growing droughts in the region, traditional grazing areas have become increasingly arid.
To add to all this, the issue has been made all the worse by attacks from bandits and Islamist
groups that have been stealing cattle, often killing herders to fund their armed activities.
Finally, there's evidence that nomadic cattle herders from neighbouring countries have been
illegally crossing the borders into Nigeria, putting further pressure on local Fulani.
As a result, the cattle herders have increasingly moved south into lands that belong to farmers.
But it hasn't worked in one direction only.
At the same time as the herders have pushed south,
there have been growing indications that farmers, mindful of the need to provide
more food for the growing population, have also encroached on grazing land.
And, if all this were not enough, the problem has also been exacerbated by political factors.
In 2015, the election of a new president, Muhammad Buhari, a Muslim Fulani, led to
claims that his administration was overlooking the encroachment of cattle herders into farming areas.
All this has created an increasingly deadly situation,
as highlighted by the December violence.
A series of attacks in Bokkos, a predominantly
Christian district of Plateau State in central Nigeria, left around 150 dead.
Meanwhile, related attacks in a neighbouring district killed up to another 50.
In addition, reports suggest that up to 300 more were wounded.
Altogether, it's reported that as many as 17 communities were attacked.
Having faced local anger and growing criticism from international human
rights groups for its failure to tackle the growing violence,
the Nigerian Army has stepped up its efforts to find those responsible for the attacks.
Meanwhile, the country's new president Bola Tinubu, a Muslim Yoruba from the southwest,
who was elected in 2023, has vowed to do whatever it takes to catch those behind the violence.
But while Tinubu was elected on a platform of tackling Nigeria's myriad of security challenges,
few are confident that the new crackdown will achieve much.
As observers note, arrests are rarely made in these cases.
But regardless of whether those responsible for the latest attacks are found or not,
more must be done to tackle the underlying issues that have driven this problem.
So far, some efforts have been made, but with mixed success.
For instance, attempts to create ranches to raise
cattle have failed to solve the problem or even made it worse.
For example, when was tried in the north, the natural home of the Fulani,
the ranches have been hit by the worsening drought conditions.
Meanwhile, efforts to create dedicated grazing
areas in the centre and the south have been seen by other ethnic groups as a
Fulani land grab and an effort to push Islam into the south of the country.
The trouble is that the underlying problems can't be resolved easily or quickly.
Ultimately, tackling the issue requires a wide range of separate but interconnected policies.
For example, more needs to be done to ensure that the country's resources are
better managed, especially with climate change.
And it also means more effective conflict management initiatives, such as early warning
mechanisms when new flashpoints arise and local dispute resolution mechanisms.
But, on top of all this,
it also means tackling the security problems in the north more effectively.
As long as the situation there remains deadly for herders, they will continue to press southwards.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there's also the question of limiting
the damage of climate change - a problem faced by an increasing number of countries.
In the meantime, while it may be tempting to see this as a relatively minor
issue as compared to some of the other security challenges facing the country,
it has serious wider reaching consequences for Nigeria.
For instance, there are already signs that the growing encroachment of the Muslim Fulani
settlers into the south is helping to fuel a resurgence of Igbo resentment in the Southeast.
Similarly, there are indications that it's feeding tensions in the Delta area,
where herders have also started to appear.
In this sense, tackling the herder problem is not just one amongst many of Nigeria's
security problems, it's intimately tied up to the multitude of challenges facing the country.
The problem is that the Nigerian government, which faces so many other deep-rooted security
challenges and political, economic, and social problems seems unable to tackle this issue.
In the meantime, as the effects of climate change become ever more pronounced, and Nigeria's
population continues to rise rapidly, there are concerns that these deadly confrontations
between the herders and the farmers will only continue to grow and become ever more dangerous.
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