Good evening everybody.
You're in the KHOU 11 weather
center here in Houston, TX.
I'm David Paul.
Here's your tropical Atlantic update.
Major Hurricane Sam continues
to crank out there cat four,
it's strengthened since yesterday.
Now a mid level Cat 4 tropical storm
victors off the West Coast of Africa.
Both of these overall thank goodness
looking more like fish storms as we
move along we've had 20 names system
so far this season where at Victor,
Wanda is the next name on the list.
After Wanda will go to the
supplemental list of names.
Where are we as far as a normal season.
Normally we have 14 named storms,
30 year average, so we've had 20 so way
ahead and still a third of the season.
Let yet to go hurricanes.
Normally we have seven of them.
So far we've had seven,
so we're normal there.
But again,
30% of the season to go cat threes.
We normally have three.
We've had four,
with Sam being the fourth major
hurricane so far this season.
As we go into October,
which begins on Friday.
Quite often we get tracks.
Firms that develop in the Western
Caribbean near the Bahamas or
in the Gulf of Mexico and those
tracks at those storms form
quite often get yanked to the
north very quickly because of
approaching troughs and cold fronts.
This time of the year.
But at the moment,
as we look out over the basin here
in the Caribbean in the Gulf,
they are quiet and tropical system free.
At the moment we don't see anything about
to form out here which is very good news.
Sea surface temperatures are very
warm out here so it's something we'll
have to watch as we go into October,
but at least for now the
Gulf in the Caribbean.
Are quiet that is Sam category 4 Sam.
And then here's Victor,
who's a tropical storm and now
forecast to stay a tropical storm.
To Sam we go.
Wow this is just a very intense hurricane.
Thank goodness out over open water mist,
the Caribbean islands,
good Max winds at 1:45.
It's now accelerating.
Moving northwest at 14 miles an hour.
It's getting caught in the
steering currents now.
Pressures have dropped down in
the 9:30 so you get the 9:30's.
You know you've probably got a cat,
three cat,
four hurricane and there you have it.
Cat four winds range from 1:30 to 156,
so at 1:45 we're right in there in the
middle to high range of a category four.
That is a very impressive eye on Cat
4 Sam about 2325 miles in diameter.
That is close to a normal eye size
for a hurricane of this strength.
Nothing too out of the ordinary,
except that it's an extraordinary storm.
You see, all the brighter Reds.
That's the central, dense, overcast CDO.
You get that type of.
Blanket effect around the
center and you know,
we've got a very well organized
system and those winds
sustained at 145 miles an hour.
They are in the eyewall, so they're not.
They don't extend all the way out there,
just in that ring of wind right around.
The center of the storm
that's called the eyewall.
That's where the strongest winds are
in a tropical storm or hurricane.
The eye itself is this clear area which,
quite literally, is clear.
If you were in this right now on a boat,
you could look up and see the stars.
Out over the open Atlantic and the clear sky
right there in the eye of the hurricane.
So there's the eye.
It's calm in the eye.
It's the eyewall.
Once you have those winds sustained
at 145 miles an hour.
Going up top,
we look at the water vapor imagery.
Helps us see the flow at the upper levels,
and it's all exhaust.
Look at how these upper level feathery clouds
are feathering out away from the system.
Again, these heat engines take
heat energy off the surface.
They bring it up through the storm.
They release their heat,
sort of like burning a
gasoline in a gasoline engine,
and then the exhaust out the
tailpipe is at the top and
without that exhaust at the top.
You don't get a growing system,
but that's what we've got.
Just a perfect example of good exhaust.
The system is between two
areas of low pressure.
This low pressure troughs entered
here but it digs that rough
access digs all the way down to
the Bahamas and then lifts it up.
So this is what it's beginning to
feel now as it's accelerating is it's
getting caught in that upper level flow.
And so it's caught the upper level
steering currents and off at heads,
which will be a glancing well,
not a glancing blow.
It's going to Miss Bermuda.
But as a cat three, so Bermuda,
you will feel impacts with
increased surf coming in.
As we head into the coming weekend
and you will also feel a north and
Northeast breeze as cat three.
At that point,
Hurricane Sam moves on through and
then as we get up into Sunday,
Monday,
Tues remnant low off the coast
of Saint Johns,
Newfoundland so you will also have
some wind and wave activity from
a decaying tropical low remnants
of Sam at that point.
That's going into Tuesday.
We look at the GFS and euro there
and tight agreement just misses.
Bermuda good that's on Saturday.
And then it does head up to the north
missing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland,
but see how the isobars are stacked
up as you head into Saint Johns.
You're going to get a breezy
early part of next week.
And then the system goes extratropical
and that will bring wind and
rain to the British Isles.
As we head into the end of next week.
That's the story on Sam.
Tropical storm victor.
You know it's a it's a decent
looking tropical storm.
You can see that nice
counterclockwise rotation.
It's got outflow feathery outflow
there at the upper levels on the
north and West side of the system.
We've got some decent inflow
coming in here at low levels.
However, as we mentioned last night,
this is trying to develop in an
area where there is some pretty
thick dust just to the north,
so it's ingesting some dust
that's dry air that's sinking air,
just the opposite of what you need
for a tropical system to develop.
You need moisture,
and you need lifting air,
and so that is choking off any rapid
intensification that Victor could undergo.
It's not in a terrible spot.
Upper level wind wise at the moment,
but it's about to be this upper low.
Look at the wind shear off
to the north and West.
So this is now moving W Northwest
and it's going to get caught up and
picked up in that upper level shear.
That is what is now drawing at Northwest
and will bend it off to the north and
once in that shear you're going to
get the system lopsided tipping over
and that's going to rip it apart.
So now it's not even forecast
to become a hurricane.
Stays a tropical storm out
into the open Atlantic.
I mean that is just about the geographic
center of the Atlantic Basin remnant low
going into Tuesday afternoon of next week,
so Victor is at the moment.
Significant threat to anybody,
although eventually a remnant low
may impact some of the islands in
the north and eastern Atlantic basin.
So there's Sam.
There's Victor, everything else is
quiet at the moment of the Atlantic Basin,
we spin the globe and go over
the Pacific Western Pacific.
We've got Typhoon men dual.
There is the typhoon sustained
winds at 100 miles an hour,
bringing wind and breezy conditions and rainy
conditions to Tokyo, Japan this evening.
Lovely night in Tokyo this evening.
But the storm itself is going
to stay off the coast of Japan,
so they miss a direct hit on this.
Forecast track there's Japan
stays well offshore.
They get some breezy conditions from
rainy conditions, but they're OK.
They'll be on the weak side of a cat.
Two, they'll be fine.
And then as the storm races off to
the north and east, we'll track it.
Now.
Watch the moisture.
Look at how it turns into snow.
That's moisture from the typhoon eventually
bringing snow to portions of Alaska.
Portions of Siberia as we head into Monday,
Tuesday of next week.
That's the 4th and 5th of October.
And then downstream from that
we're looking at the jet stream
at thirty four thousand feet.
Look at the Trophee.
That's going to be carved
out Big Ridge underneath it,
helping to carve out this trough.
That will set up off the West
Coast of the United States.
We watch these troughs this time of the year,
because that opens the door
for cold air to come down.
This type of setup will
encourage some cold air to
come out of Siberia and get into Alaska,
Northwest Canada, and so you're
going to be getting much colder as
we head into the first week and first
part of the second week of October.
This goes into October tenth and look
at the pattern here at the upper level
winds big trough out West and that is
snow that could be significant snow
for the Rockies of Northern Nevada.
Getting into Idaho, northern Utah.
Could get into some significant snow
there if that trophy pattern does
indeed verify going into the tent.
This is a long range forecast,
so there will probably be a little
bit of adjustment to this forecast
that would keep the middle part
of the United States under a Ridge
going into the first in the beginning
of the second week of October.
That would keep it very warm here.
And the northern branch of the
jet up across Hudson Bay.
So warm for Quebec and the eastern United
States in the eastern portions of Canada.
And that's cold and a little snowy
for Western and northwest Canada
and the Klondike.
And Speaking of temperatures.
Very warm here on the last day of
September across the United States.
These are current temperatures.
It's almost eight o'clock,
central Standard Time across the USA.
As I give this report, Del Rio's 93.
Houston 79. It's 80 in Omaha.
It's 78 in Minneapolis Saint Paul,
so they're enjoying an extended summertime
across the Northern plains and up
into central South Central Canada.
It's just beautiful.
If you don't want winter to start early.
Prince Albert. It's 70. Winnipeg 64.
Big trout 67. Calgary 72.
Pickle Lake 73 that is,
that is lovely extended summer weather.
For the plains of Canada,
but you can see what eventually
is coming Old Crow.
Sitting at 26 right there is where
we stand tropical wise and across
North America this evening.
Questions,
comments leaving forming our redom
let me know what you want to see.
We will see you for another update tomorrow.