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How bad is the bear market, guys?
Well, I'm staying in a Hampton Inn right now.
Okay. But let's get serious.
My name is Ben.
And today I'm out of town for a ball tournament, so.
I'm going with the old backwards hat, you know?
Should we go with this?
This is bringing back old school.
Let's bring back bear market 2018/2019.
We used to rock a backwards hat on the channel.
There was a reason for that.
But only OGs know.
Guys, today, crypto holders,
I want to talk about something that's going on the market
that is very urgent that you see and understand.
We're going to talk about the implications of it.
A lot of these numbers-- we'd like to give credit where credit's due.
A lot of these numbers we are going to pull from Rekt Capital on Twitter and put it together,
some nice tweets about this Bitcoin death cross.
What does it mean?
Ugh!
Okay. Let's talk about it.
So, first, let's talk about--
we're going to talk about what the death cross is.
We're going to talk about what the implications are.
And then we're going to talk about what the implications are for the greater, you know,
Bitcoin cycle theory at large
because something's for sure.
In this bear market, we are going to see something different than we have seen before.
We're in juxtaposition of two things that have traditionally happened,
one that has happened, one that has never happened,
and one of these things is going to be proven to be untrue.
So we are going to have some implications for the Bitcoin cycles.
And I'm going to talk to you why it doesn't mean the Bitcoin cycles are not valid
when we get something different.
It's just a wrinkle into, you know, the history of Bitcoin
that allows us to make better predictions going forward.
So first, what is a Bitcoin death cross?
This is some technical analysis.
In general, what a death cross is,
is the death cross is when your short-term action drops below your long-term action.
That's a good way to look at it.
It's when a higher timeframe--
or excuse me, it's when a lower timeframe EMA drops below a higher timeframe.
Now, when we talk about a Bitcoin death cross,
we are specifically--
this is what it's referred to.
In other assets, this isn't necessarily the case.
But in Bitcoin, it's when the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day moving average.
And when you think about what that means at its core,
what that means is that the 50-day, the shorter term, the shorter timeframe,
the movement is much more volatile to the downside
than the average of the price over the last 200 days, the 200-day EMA.
So it means that, in the short term, we're having a dramatic drop to the downside.
And this is generally what you see in bear markets.
Some would say it could be an indicator of a bottom.
So let's talk about that.
Let's talk about what this is.
Now, people call this a lagging indicator. Why?
Because oftentimes--
how often? We're going to talk about that.
Oftentimes, when you get these Bitcoin death crosses,
it actually means Bitcoin's already at the bottom.
So, is that possible?
Have we already seen Bitcoin at the bottom?
Well, if you go back to 2020 and 2021,
when we got those death crosses,
that was actually occurring at the very bottom.
We got the one in July or June.
I can't remember exactly when it was from last year.
But it was at the bottom.
Then we got one, I believe--
I'm just guessing here.
It was in 2020.
It should have been somewhere around the pandemic because that was the bottom,
so, logically, that makes sense, but I don't have the date on that.
So that's the last two times.
So two times in a row,
2020, 2021,
we've seen that be the indicator of the bottom.
Now, is that always the case?
Well, if you go to the three previous death crosses,
they were not lagging indicators.
And both of those times,
when we got a bottom,
pre-death cross and post-death cross,
it was a comparable amount of price action to the downside.
So, basically, you would have--
before the death cross, you'd have like a 70% down draw,
and then after the death cross, you'd have like a 65%.
One time, I think, it was about 55% and 55%.
Then another time, I think, it was, you know, 70% and 71%.
Somewhere around there. Close numbers.
So the last five times,
60% of the time, there's been much more action to the downside.
40% of the time,
it has been an indicator of the actual bottom.
So, is that a reliable indicator when it's only about 50/50?
Yes and no.
It seems to be what we call in the poker world a polarized range.
It either is going to fall dramatically,
or we've already bottomed.
There's probably not a lot in the middle.
So if we were to look at traditionally when it has dropped, okay?
You're looking at, right now, before the death cross,
Bitcoin has suffered a 43% drop.
If it were to be a 43% drop after the death cross,
that puts us at $22,700,
which, in my opinion, makes a lot of sense for the price
because I've been telling you guys for a while,
the numbers indicate an 85% drawdown historically.
Total. Okay?
So, historically, we should be looking at $10,300 Bitcoin.
Intellectually honest,
for me, I don't think we're going to go that low
even though the indicators show that we're right on track for that.
We also are at a spot where we've never seen Bitcoin go below the previous four-year cycle top. Okay?
So, what does that mean?
The previous four-year cycle would have been the 2017 bull market.
$20,000
So the Bitcoin price theoretically should not drop below $20,000 based on that number,
but also at the same time,
also at the same time,
it should go down to $10,300
because, historically, we have an 85% drawdown.
We're right on track for that.
So the long and the short of it is we're going to see something different than we have traditionally seen.
Now, does this mean that the Bitcoin cycles are dead?
No, no, certainly not. Certainly not.
Every single cycle has been slightly different than the previous ones. Okay?
2013, 2014, we got the double top, right?
We got the double top, but it was a dramatic parabolic double top.
2017?
We pretty much saw continuous parabolic action the entire time.
So we have not seen that before.
Now, this time, we got a double top,
but it was only barely a double top,
and a lot of people would argue it was an exaggerated dead cat bounce
and driven by ETFs and institutions like the false top theory says.
That basically it was a dead cat bounce that went too high.
It's the long and the short of it.
So, what does all this mean?
Bitcoin is such a young asset, guys.
It's such a young asset.
We can't unequivocally know the numbers.
I give you the numbers that we come up with based on data and based off of history.
You know, we said September 28 should have been the top for the bull market.
Or for Bitcoin.
We told you that the top of the entire market should be sometime between Halloween and Thanksgiving.
We got the number wrong. We thought it was going to $100K. It didn't go there,
but we were dead on on that.
Now, we missed--
we said the top of Bitcoin should be in September,
but what we didn't realize is the top of Bitcoin in November was the top of the market.
So we did call the exact top of the market.
Exactly in that timeframe as the top was November 12, I believe.
So the point being, every time we get one of these new wrinkles,
what we do is we now add that into our data.
We add that into our four-year cycle theory, hypothesis, numbers, averages,
and all we're looking is to add these new wrinkles and to get averages of where we should be.
And I think we're going to get a pretty big wrinkle this time.
And the reason being is because we got a big wrinkle in the bull run
when we did not get nearly the parabolic movement that we thought we were going to get.
So, right now, if the price were to go down to $22,700,
does that mean right now is a good buy point?
I would argue yes.
I think anything below $30,000--
I mean, Bitcoin may be slightly above 30 right now,
but anything above $30,000 is an incredible price point for Bitcoin.
And I really, really really believe that.
I don't think anyone who's buying in right now, you're going to regret these prices.
You are going to regret, I believe, if you go all in right now
and don't keep money on the sidelines for a rainy day.
Alright, guys. Well, that's it. I've got to get back to baseball.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.