.
>> WELCOME BACK A FEW MOMENTS
AWAY FROM MAY ADP REPORT, TAKE
A LOOK AT JOBS, THE
EXPECTATION FOR THE MONTH MAY
A LOSS NINE MILLION JOBS LAST
MONTH ACTUALLY IMPROVEMENT
FROM WHAT WE SAW IN APRIL,
APRIL, WAS 20 MILLION JOBS
THIS ALL AHEAD OF THE
GOVERNMENT ALL-IMPORTANT JOBS’
REPORT COMING OUT ON FRIDAY,
THE ADP REPORT IS TYPICALLY
GOOD INDICATOR OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE, FROM THE JOBS’ REPORT,
FROM THE LABOR DEPARTMENT.
JOINING ME RIGHT NOW WHITE
HOUSE COUNSEL ECONOMIC VIRUSES
CHAIRMAN KEVIN HASSETT GREAT
TO HAVE YOU THIS MORNING
THANKS VERY MUCH FOR JOINING
ME GETTING THIS NUMBER TO THE
ACTUAL DATA WHEN IT HITS THE
TAPE BUT DO YOU FEEL THINGS
ARE IMPROVING ON THE JOBS
FRONT?
4 WE SEEN THE WORST.
>> I WOULD SAY BY JUNE WE WILL
HAVE SEEN WORST RIGHT NOW
CLAIMS ARE HEADING DOWN
REAL-TIME ACTIVITY DATA I KNOW
YOU TALK ABOUT STARTED TO HEAD
UP PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES
OPENING CLOSING IN ABOVE 90%
DEFINITELY A LOT OF POSITIVE
SIGNS BUT I DON’T THINK WE ARE
THERE YET WE ARE STILL GETTING
INITIAL CLAIMS, THAT YOU KNOW
SHOW A LOT OF JOB LOSSES OUT
THERE VERY DISAPPOINTING, I
THINK NINE MILLION NUMBER
BUILT UP FROM INITIAL CLAIMS
WE SEE WEEKLY DATA THAT ADDS
UP TO ABOUT WHAT YOU EXPECT
ADP REPORT WOULD BE VERY
SURPRISE IF IT WASN’T --
>> WE LOOK AT NINE MILLION
WHILE HORRIBLE NUMBER IT IS
WAY DOWN FROM THE 20 MILLION,
NUMBER THAT WE SAW IN APRIL,
SO THAT IS WHY I ASKED YOU
KNOW YOU THINK WE HAVE SEEN
THE WORST?
>> CAN I ADD ONE THING.
>> LET ME GET TO CHERYL CASONE
NUMBERS ARE OUT, LIKE TO PET
THOSE RIGHT AWAY.
CHERYL: BETTER THAN EXPECTED
MARIA ESTIMATE FOR LOSS NINE
MILLION JOBS ADP PRIVATE
PAYROLLS CAME IN WITH A LOSS
2.76 MILLION, THE RANGE, WAS
ANYWHERE FROM A LOSS OF 12
MILLION, TO A LOSS 200,000 SO
SOME ECONOMISTS THOUGHT GOING
TO SEE 12 MILLION THE AVERAGE
ESTIMATE NINE MILLION, 2.76
MILLION MARIA THIS ACTUALLY IS
MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED, AND
I DEFINITELY HAVE TO POINT OUT
THE FACT IT IS MUCH BETTER
THAN NUMBER IN APRIL, WAS A
RECORD FOR THIS REPORT A LOSS
OF 20.23 MILLION, AGAIN MUCH
BETTER THAN EXPECTED AGAIN AS
WE GO INTO FRIDAY JOBS’ REPORT
INITIAL CLAIMS TOMORROW, JUST
TO SEND IT BACK TO YOU, THE
LOSS FOR 1.8 MILLION -- 1.8
MILLION NEW CLAIMS WILL GET
FILED TOMORROW MIGHT GET BELOW
TWO MILLION THRESHOLD ON
INITIAL CLAIMS DOW 7704 RIGHT
NOW -- DOW UP 204.
>> ADP NUMBER 2.76 MILLION
JOBS, LOSS, VERSUS ESTIMATE
MEAN THAT MILLION JOBS, AGAIN,
THAT CONVERSATION JUST HAVING
ON MAYBE WE HAVE SEEN THE
WORST WHAT DO YOU SAY.
>> AGAIN, THE HEADLINE IS THAT
WE HAVE YOU KNOW GETTING CLOSE
TO HAVING HIT BOTTOM FOR SURE,
YOU CAN SEE THAT THE THING
ABOUT TO INTERREJECT IF YOU
LOOK AT CONTINUING CLAIMS
STARTING TO HEAD DOWN EVERY
TWO PEOPLE THAT LOST THEIR
JOB, IN THE LAST REPORT, YOU
KNOW THREE PEOPLE WENT OFF
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
DEFINITELY ARE SIGNS THAT WE
ARE TURNING THE CORNER THIS
NUMBER SO MUCH BELOW
EXPECTATION ABOUT WHAT YOU
WOULD GET IF YOU BUILT UP FROM
CLAIMS DATA I WONDER ABOUT IT
I WILL GO BACK TO DESK STUDY
IT THE NUMBER IS SO GOOD, SUCH
GOOD NEWS, THAT I REALLY HAVE
TO DIG DEEP INTO IT SEE IF NOT
SOMETHING FUNNY GOING ON THAT
IS PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM
WHAT WE WOULD GET IF WE JUST
ADDED UP CLAIMS DATA SO ON
FROM THE LAST SURVEY WEEK.
>> SEE SO WHY DO YOU THINK
THINGS HAVE IMPROVED IS IT
ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF STIMULUS
CORONAVIRUS RELIEF BILLS?
OR DO YOU THINK THAT THIS IS
JUST TIME WHERE WE ARE NOW
SAYING MORE REOPENINGS IN
TERMS OF THE ECONOMY I KNOW
THE PRESIDENT IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD MEETINGS, NEXT RELIEF
PACKAGE ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT O
PROPOSALS COMING UP WHY DO YOU
THINK WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE
BIT OF A BACKING AWAY FROM
THOSE TOUGH NUMBERS THAT WE
SAW JUST A MONTH AGO.
>> AGAIN WE HAD BIGGEST
NEGATIVE SHOCK IN U.S. HISTORY
GOING BACK TO SECOND WORLD WAR
NEVER HAD A QUARTER LIKE THE
ONE GOING TO BE RECORD GDP NOW
SAYING MINUS 50%, PRESIDENT
TRUMP SAW THAT THEN YOU KNOW
ORGANIZED IT THE FOLKS WE GOT
WE GOT OUR ACT TOGETHER WE HAD
THREE PHASES OF STIMULUS SO
WE’VE HAD BIGGEST POLICY
RESPONSE, IN HISTORY THEN HOPE
WOULD BE POLICY RESPONSE WOULD
BE BIG ENOUGH TO HELP GET BACK
TO NORMAL QUICKLY, IT IF YOU
LOOK AT STATES THAT HAVE BEEN
OPENING UP YOU CAN SEE THAT
THEY ARE REALLY GETTING BACK
TO NORMAL QUICKLY, PEOPLE ARE
GOING BACK TO WORK, PEOPLE
BEING CALLED OFF FURLOUGH,
THEY ARE EXCITED TO GET LIVES
BACK GOING BACK THERE, ISN’T
LIKE PERSONAL INCOME DATA WE
SAW THERE WAS BIGGEST INCREASE
IN PERSONAL INCOME WE HAVE
SEEN IN THE HISTORY OF THE
DATA THE GOVERNMENT, BIGGER
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CHECKS,
ACTUAL CHECKS TO FOLKS, THEN
FOLKS, YOU KNOW SAW INCOMES GO
UP SAVED A LOT WHAT IT MEANS
NO I THAT AS BUSINESSES OPEN
UP THERE IS A HUGE PENT-UP
DEMAND A LOT OF CASH IN
POCKETS TO SEND DO I THINK
THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE
BOTTOM I WAS EXPECTING JUNE
BUT ADP NUMBER DOES SUGGEST
YOU ARE VERY, VERY CLOSE TO A
TURNING POINT.
MARIA: WHEN YOU LOOK AT
CONTRACTION EXPECTING SECOND
QUARTER CONTRACTION OF 50%
THAT IS HUGE, I MEAN I DON’T,
I NEVER HEARD OF ANYTHING THIS
BAD DOWN 50% SECOND QUARTER IF
TO SEE THAT KIND OF A
CONTRACTION IN GDP FOR THE A
SECOND QUARTER DOES THAT MEAN
WOULD WE COULD SEE ELONGATED
SITUATION DON’T SEE ARE GROWTH
THIRD QUARTER MAYBE DON’T GET
GROWTH UNTIL FOURTH QUARTER OR
2021?
I THINK VERY, VERY UNLIKELY A
VERY, VERY UNIQUE HIFL
EXPERIENCE, BECAUSE WHAT
HAPPENED THAT IS WE KIND OF
TURNED THE ECONOMY OFF, TO IN
ORDER TO SAVE PROBABLY
MILLIONS OF LIVES, AND THEN WE
GAVE PEOPLE CASH THEY NEEDED,
HOPEFULLY YOU KNOW WE GOT IT
TO MOST EVERYBODY.
SO THAT THEY COULD HOLD ON,
AND KEEP THEIR BUSINESS
TOGETHER KEEP EMPLOYEES
ATTACHED UNTIL WE REOPENED THE
WAY TO THINK BACK OF THE
ENVELOPE MARIA EVERY WEEK
ECONOMY SHUT DOWN YOU NEED 2%
GDP BUT NOT -- A ANNUAL RATE
IF YOU SHUT DOWN A MONTH 8
PERCENT GDP MULTIPLY BY FOUR
TO GET WHAT HAPPENS WHETHER
THEY PUT OUT GDP RELEASE
ANNUAL RATE IF WE WE SHUT DOWN
REALLY HARD FOR A MININOW
STARTING TO OPEN UP, I
BELIEVE, THAT IT GOIKTS VERY,
VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN IF YOU
LOOK AT IT, WE ARE NOT SEEING
A WAVE OF BANKRUPTCIES NOT
BEHAVE OF DEFAULTS BECAUSE OF
PPP LOANS ALL CASH WE PUT IN
POCKETS, SO THAT WE CAN WE CAN
TURN THIS BACK ON, WHETHER WE
DO OR NOT IS SOMETHING WE ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
DATA BUT, AGAIN, ADP REPORT IS
A REAL POSITIVE SIGN SUCH A
POSITIVE SIGN THAT I REALLY
HAVE TO GRAB MY PENCIL GO BACK
TO DESK SEE WHAT IS GOING ON
BECAUSE IT IS WAY LOWER THAN I
EXPECTED.
.
>> IN A GOOD WAY.
>> SO MUCH MONEY THROWN AT
ECONOMY TALK UP TO 10 TRILLION
DOLLARS OF STIMULUS WHEN YOU
CONSIDER THE LEVERAGE OF THE
FED NOW HE WE’VE GOT THIS
REPORT FROM SENATOR PORTMAN
EMPLOYEES RETURNING TO WORK
AFTER PANDEMIC EXTRA 450
DOLLARS A WEEK WHAT DO YOU
EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF AID THERE
IS COMPLAINTS, THAT PEOPLE
THAT ARE AT HOME, ARE MAKING
MORE MONEY TO STAY HOME, THAN
THEY ARE, TO GO BACK TO WORK
WHEN YOU LOOK AT EMPLOYMENT
BENEFITS 600 DOLLARS A WEEK DO
WE WANT MORE TO EMPLOYEES OR
WHAT IS THE GROUP THAT REALLY
NEEDS IT COMMUNITY BANKS?
IS IT SMALL BUSINESS?
HOW DO YOU GET THE ECONOMY
COMING BACK?
>> YOU KNOW MARIA, AS YOU KNOW
WE ARE DOING WHITE HOUSE,
SURPRISED TO SEE THAT YOU KNOW
WHEN YOU ARE HAVING MEETINGS
STUFF THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU
READ ABOUT IT IN PAPER "THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL" WROTE A
LONG ARTICLE ABOUT IT, PRETTY
WELL SOURCED PRETTY ACCURATE
WE ARE ABSOLUTELY MEETING THIS
WEEK GOING OVER WHAT WE THINK
SHOULD BE IN PHASE FOR DEAL
GOING TO TRY TO REFORM
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SO THE