I THINK, PHIL, I THINK, IT’S A
VERY GOOD ANALYSIS.
LET’S GO TO JOHN HANNAH, OF
COURSE REMEMBER JOHN THE FORMER
NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR TO
VICE PRESIDENT DICK CHENEY.
JOHN WHERE IS THIS GOING?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> YEAH, NO THERE’S NO QUESTION
, NEIL PARTICULARLY THIS
BUILDUP ON THE UKRAINE
BORDER IS A REAL THREAT THAT THE
U.S. HAS TO PAY VERY VERY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO, AND MOBILIZE
ALL OF OUR ALLIES IN EUROPE
AGAINST PUTIN TO TRY AND DETER
THEM AS BEST WE CAN.
I DO THINK WHAT THE PRESIDENT
DID YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF THE
SANCTIONS, WHILE HE
ACKNOWLEDGES HE HELD SOMETHING
IN RESERVE, THESE WEREN’T
WITHOUT SOME TEETH AND I DO
THINK THEY SEND A POWERFUL
MESSAGE TO PUTIN THAT HE NEEDS
TO PAUSE, HE NEEDS TO BACK OFF,
OR ELSE THERE COULD BE MUCH
WORSE COMING, BECAUSE STILL
LYING OUT THERE IS THE NUCLEAR
OPTION IN TERMS OF SANCTIONS
GOING AFTER NOT ONLY PUTIN’S
CLOSEST OLIGARCHS AND GOING
AFTER THEIR WEALTH BUT GOING
AFTER PUTIN’S WEALTH HIMSELF,
WHOSE ONE OF THE RICHEST MEN IN
THE WORLD.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, AS YOU PROBABLY
HEARD ALREADY, JOHN, THE RUSSIAN
S HAVE RESPONDED OUR
EXPELLING 10 DIPLOMATS TO THEM
EXPELLING 10 DIPLOMATS OF OURS.
WHERE DOES THIS GO?
>> WELL THIS IS, YOU KNOW,
TIT-FOR-TAT OUT OF THE STANDARD
DIPLOMATIC PLAY BOOK FOR THESE
KINDS OF INCIDENTS WE’VE
PROBABLY BEEN HERE AT LEAST A
HALF DOZEN DIFFERENT TIMES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS.
THE QUESTION IS WHAT ELSE CAN
THE RUSSIANS DO TO REALLY
INCREASE THE PRESSURE ON THE
UNITED STATES?
THEY TALK ABOUT SANCTIONS, BUT
IN A GAME OF SANCTIONS, THERE’S
NO DOUBT THAT THE U.S. HAS
ESCALATION DOMINANCE OVER THE
RUSSIANS.
I DON’T THINK PUTIN REALLY WANTS
TO GO UP THAT ESCALATION LADDER
WITH US BECAUSE WE COULD REALLY
INFLICT SOME CRIPPLING PAIN ON
PUTIN HIMSELF, AND HIS INNER
CIRCLE AND FOR PUTIN, THE PLAY
IS REALLY IN UKRAINE ITSELF, IN
EUROPE.
THE EFFORT TO FRACTURE AND THEN
OF COURSE ON CYBER.
CYBER IS THE ULTIMATE QUESTION
MARK, AND THE POTENTIAL
CATASTROPHE WAITING OUT THERE IF
THE RUSSIANS AS A RESULT OF
THESE MASSIVE HACKS ARE SITTING
ON OUR NETWORKS, OUR WATER
NETWORKS, OUR ELECTRICITY GRID,
OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
IF THEY CAN TURN OFF THE LIGHTS
IN THE UNITED STATES, THAT’S
SOMETHING, OBVIOUSLY, THAT A
ROAD NOBODY WANTS TO REALLY GO
DOWN.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, JOHN, YOU CAN
REFRESH MY MEMORY HERE BUT I DO
REMEMBER WHEN BARACK OBAMA WAS
GETTING RID OF RUSSIAN
DIPLOMATICS IN THIS COUNTRY WAS
OBVIOUSLY RIGHT BEFORE THE
ELECTION AT THE TIME, AND
THERE WAS TALK THAT THE RUSSIANS
WEREN’T GOING TO FOLLOW THROUGH
WITH A RECIPROCAL MOVE BECAUSE
THE NEW ADMINISTRATION WAS
COMING IN, AND THEY HOPED TO
START OFF ON A FRIENDLIER FOOT
AND THERE WAS REPORTS THAT THE
TRUMP LOYALISTS WERE SAYING
ALL RIGHT, THIS IS SOMETHING WE
HOPE YOU DON’T DO, BECAUSE WE
ARE COMING AND IT WILL BE A
LITTLE DIFFERENT.
IS THERE ANY POSSIBILITY OF THAT
NOW OBVIOUSLY IT’S DIFFERENT
BECAUSE THE NEW ADMINISTRATION
IS ALREADY IN, AND IS ALREADY
DOING THIS , BUT WHAT DO YOU
THINK?
>> LISTEN, I THINK IT’S
POSSIBLE THAT THE PRESIDENT AND
HIS PHONE CALL WITH PUTIN THIS
WEEK, WHILE HE SAID WE’RE
ABOUT TO LOWER THE BOOM ON YOU
IN TERMS OF SOME SANCTIONS HE
ALSO HELD OUT THAT OLIVE BRANCH
OF HEY, WE’VE GOT SOME AREAS
LIMITED WHERE OUR INTERESTS
ALIGN.
WE’VE GOT DIFFERENCES THAT WE
REALLY NEED TO TALK ABOUT, AND
MAKE SURE THERE’S NO FATAL MISS
CALCULATION ON EITHER SIDE.
LET’S GET TOGETHER.
LET’S HAVE A SUMMIT.
SO I THINK PUTIN HAS GOT TO
CONSIDER ALL OF THAT.
HE’S HURTING INTERNALLY,
DOMESTICALLY IN RUSSIA.
HIS POPULARITY IS DECLINING.
HE’S GOT SOME ELECTIONS COMING
UP.
HE MAYBE COULD USE A SUMMIT WITH
THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES TO BOLSTER HIS LEGITIMACY
, SO PUTIN HAS GOT
SOME OF HIS OWN CALCULATIONS TO
DO HERE, BECAUSE IT’S NOT ALL
FREE SAILING FOR HIM.
NEIL: VERY GOOD POINT.
JOHN HANNAH, THANK YOU VERY MUCH
, VERY GOOD SEEING YOU, JOHN
>> GREAT, THANK YOU, NEIL.
NEIL: THE ONLY FORMAL RESPONSE
THAT JOHN TOUCHED ON IT FROM THE
RUSSIANS HERE HAS BEEN TO
SIMILARLY TAKE 10 DIPLOMATICS
OUT OF THEIR COUNTRY FROM THE
UNITED STATES, SEND THEM
BACK HOME INCLUDING OUR
AMBASSADOR.
WHERE THIS ESCALATES IF IT DOES
POTENTIALLY ESCALATE WHETHER A