FIRST LADY BARBARA BUSH, THE
LIFE AFTER WHITE HOUSE A LOT
MORE JOIN US FOR PRESIDENT
GEORGE W. AND LAURA COMING UP,
JOINING US FIRST FOX BUSINESS
EXCLUSIVE PRESIDENT OF FEDERAL
RESERVE BANK DALLAS ROBERT
KAPLAN IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU
--
>> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US WE
ECONOMY HERE, AND HOW THINGS
ARE BOOMING CONGRATULATIONS TO
YOU AND COLLEAGUES AND YOUR
HANDLING OF THINGS BUT FIRST
LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT PRESIDENT
GEORGE ONE OF THE MANY BUSH,
AND GEORGE W. BUSH YOU KNOW
G.W..
>> I DO, AND YOU HAVE MET
BARBARA.
>> YES MY SIMILAR
>> YES MY SIMILA
>> YES MY GRMILA
>> YES MY GREALA
>> YES MY GREATA
>> YES MY GREAT M
>> YES MY GREAT MOD
>> YES MY GREAT MODEL
>> YES MY GREAT MODEL F
>> YES MY GREAT MODEL FOR
>> YES MY GREAT MODEL FOR A
>> YES MY GREAT MODEL FOR ALL
IN UNITED STATES.
>> YOU KNOW COMING UP TOUGH AS
NAILS, LEADERS ALSO TOUGH AS
NAILS NOT AFRAID TO SAY THE
WAY IT IS I LIKE A LOT LET'S
TALK ABOUT AMERICA'S ECONOMY
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN DALLAS IS
THAT TRUE DO YOU SEE STRENGTH
A BIT OF A BOOM HAPPENING
HERE.
>> TEXAS IS BOOMING, WE EXPECT
JOB GROWTH, JUST IN STATE OF
TEXAS THIS YEAR, OF OVER 3%
MEANS GDP GROWTH WILL BE
HIGHER.
FOR US, IT MEANS DIVERSIFIED
ECONOMY MIGRATION TO STATE,
THE ENERGY BUSINESS HAS GONE
FROM A HEADWIND TO A TAILWIND
A LOT OF THINGS GOING.
>> JOB GROWTH 3% THIS YEAR?
>> INCREDIBLE SO YOU WOULD
THINK GDP WAS A COUPLE MOVES
HIGHER THAN THAT.
>> CERTAIN -- HIGHER THAN 3% 3
AND A FRACTION 4 UNUSUALLY
HIGH GROWTH A LOT OF JOB
GROWTH FOR US ENERGY IS NOW
LESS THAN 10% GDP, IT IS A BIG
PERCENTAGE OF THE JOBS, AND
WE'RE GOING IT IS OUR ESTIMATE
THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE NET A MILLION BARRELS
A DAY INCREASE 70% FROM BASIN
IN TEXAS.
>> THAT IS THE THING.
AND ENERGY MORE IMPORTANT THE
U.S. IS A BIGGER PRODUCER IN
GLOBAL MARKET.
>> YEAH THE OTHER THING THAT
IS GOING ON, IS GLOBAL DEMAND
IS GROWING SO THE FACT MERGING
MARKETS GLOBAL GROWTH BETTER
WE MARKED UP GLOBAL DEMAND
GROWTH MORE THAN A MILLION AND
HALF BARRELS A DAY THE
PROSPECTS FOR ENERGY LOOK
GOOD.
>> PRESIDENT TOUTING TAX
REFORM AS ONE OF THE MEASURES
THAT MOVED THE NEEDLE ON
ECONOMIC GROWTH TALK ABOUT
GROWTH SPECIFICALLY AND
BROADLY SPEAKING FOR THE U.S.
RIGHT NOW WHAT IS POSSIBLE IN
YOUR VIEW?
>> SO IN THE NEAR-TERM, AS DOW
ESTIMATING U.S. GROWTH 2 AND
ONE HALF 2 AND 3/4% 2018 WE
THINK GROWTH WILL MOOED RAUT
NEXT
NEX
EX
-- MODERATE BY 2020 DOWN TO
2%.
>> 2020.
>> NOW THAT MAY SURPRISE
PEOPLE HERE IS WHY.
GDP IS DRIVEN BY GROWTH IN THE
WORK FORS AND PRODUCTIVITY
WORK FORCE IS SLOWING BECAUSE
OF AGING, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
IS SLUGGISH THE DALLAS FED
DONE A LOT OF WORK EDUCATION
LEVELS LAGGING 25th OUT OF 35
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES SKILL
LEVELS APPROVING LAGGING WE
THINK PRODUCTIVITY LIKELY TO
REMAIN SLUGGISH MORE BUSINESS
INVESTMENT WE THINK THOSE TWO
CAN BE DRESSED
CAN BE DRESSE
CAN BE ADESSE
CAN BE ADDRSE
CAN BE ADDRES
CAN BE ADDRESSE
CAN BE ADDRESSED
CAN BE ADDRESSED T
CAN BE ADDRESSED THE
CAN BE ADDRESSED THE S
CAN BE ADDRESSED THE STI
CAN BE ADDRESSED THE STIMU
CAN BE ADDRESSED THE STIMULU
CAN BE ADDRESSED THE STIMULUS
FROM INCREASING DEBT TO GDP
THIS RECENT LEGISLATION DID
COULD TURN INTO HEADWIND WE
THINK UNSUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN
THE UNITED STATES.
>> GOING TO GET BACK TO THAT
1.3 TRILLION-DOLLAR OMNIBUS
PLAN YOU SAID A LOT OF
INTERESTING THINGS IN TERMS OF
U.S. NEEDING MORE WORKERS THIS
IS THIS IS THE -- NARRATIVE
THAT PEOPLE AS RELATES TO
IMMIGRATION AS WELL, WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT LEGAL
IMMIGRATION
IMMIGRATIO
ILMIGRATIO
ILLEGRATIO
ILLEGAATIO
ILLEGALTIO
ILLEGAL WO
ILLEGAL WE
NEED MORE WORKERS.
>> WE DO CONSTRAINED BY LACK
OF WORKERS HALF ALL SMALL
BUSINESSES CANNOT FIND SKILLED
WORKERS TO FILL JOBS.
>> HALF.
>> HALF MOST RECENT SURVEY
ADDITION WE THINK NATIVE BORN
WORKFORCE GROWTH IS GOING TO
BE NEGATIVE, MAY BE WE SHOULD
CONSERVATIVE SKILLED
IMMIGRATION MORE EMPLOYER
BASED CRITERIA BUT WE NEED
IMMIGRATION GROWTH TO FUEL
WORKFORCE GROWTH CRITICAL TO
GDP GROWTH IN U.S.
>> IN 2020 THAT IS INCREDIBLE
-- I DIDN'T REALIZE THINGS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THAT MUCH AS A
RESULT OF THINGS THAT YOU ARE
TALKING ABOUT.
>> THIS IS ONE OF THOSE
ESTIMATES WHERE I WOULD LIKE
TO BE WRONG.
>> RIGHT.
>> BUT THESE FUNDAMENTAL
DRIVERS ARE CRITICAL AND WHEN
WE DID A TAX LEGISLATION IN
THE 80S HAD IMPROVING
DEMOGRAPHICS IMPROVING
WORKFORCE GROWTH RIGHT NOW
WE'VE GOT ERODING DEMOGRAPHICS