FORWARD, THERE WOULD BE
ATROCITIES COMMITTED.
THERE'S AN IMPORTANT WORK TO PUT
THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER.
>> JOIN US, WELCOME BOTH.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE SPEECH TO
THE UNITED NATIONS.
HE REALLY CHALLENGED THE WHOLE
WORLD ORDER.
THE POST WORLD WAR II WORLD
ORDER AS IT IS BEING PLAYED OUT
IN UKRAINE, WITH RUSSIA AS A
PERMANENT MEMBER OF THE SECURITY
COUNCIL, DID HE NOT?
>> HE DID AND IT'S TOTALLY
UNDERSTANDABLE WHY HE DID.
THE WORLD ORDER IS NOT AN ORDER.
AND IT IS FAILING HIM.
THE UNITED NATIONS AS AN
INSTITUTION IS FAILING HIM AND
FAILING US ALL.
THE PROBLEM IS THE UNITED
NATIONS WAS CREATED AS A VENUE
WHERE THE GREAT POWERS OF THE
DAY WOULD COME TOGETHER.
NOT MEANT TO BE USED BY ONE
GREAT POWER AGAINST ANOTHER.
IT HAS NO REAL CAPACITY, OTHER
THAN WHAT THE GREAT POWERS AGREE
TO DO.
AGAIN, THE SPEECH WAS
UNDERSTANDABLE BUT I'LL BE
BRUTALLY HONEST WITH YOU, IT'S
NOT GOING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN TERMS OF THE U.N.
IT'S NOT GOING TO HELP WHAT THE
PRESIDENT OBVIOUSLY WANTS, WHICH
IS AN END TO THIS WAR AND
OBVIOUSLY NO RUSSIAN MILITARY
ESCALATION.
IT SIMPLY WON'T EFFECT THE BASIC
DYNAMICS.
>> AND RICHARD AND AMBASSADOR
McFALL, I WANT TO SHARE WITHIA
THAT I'M TOLD THAT JOINT CHIEFS
CHAIRMAN, MARK MILLEY JUST TOLD
THE HOUSE ARMS SERVICES
COMMITTEE THAT WHEN THEY'RE
TALKING ABOUT A PROTRACTED WAR,
IT WAS SUGGESTED BY JAKE
SULLIVAN YESTERDAY AT THE WHITE
HOUSE BRIEFING THAT WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT MONTHS.
MARK MILLEY SAID IN YEARS, IF
NOT DECADES, I BELIEVE.
HE DOESN'T KNOW ABOUT DECADES IS
WHAT HE SAID, ACTUALLY.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT YEARS AND I
DON'T KNOW -- MIKE McFALL, HOW
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR UKRAINE
TO HOLD UP UNDER THE KIND OF
BRUTAL AGGRESSION THAT RUSSIA
HAS DISPLAYED.
FOR YEARS.
>> SECRETARY OF BLINKEN COMING
PAST YOU THERE?
OR JUST FIRE ENGINES?
>> NO, THAT'S JUST OTHER
MOTORCADES.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ARRIVING HERE FOR MEETINGS TOMORROW.
HERE FOR MEETINGS TOMORROW.
I MEAN, HOW CAN THIS GO ON FOR
YEARS?
>> I THINK WE AS OUTSIDERS WERE
WATCHING THE HEROIC EVENTS,
TRULY HEROIC AND WITNESSING
TRULY HORRIFIC KILLINGS AROUND
KYIV.
I THINK THAT'S ON PURPOSE.
I THINK PUTIN WANTS US TO KNOW
WHAT A KILLER HE IS AS A METHOD
OF DETERRENT.
BUT I THINK WE ALSO NEED TO BE
AWARE THAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE A
LOT OF CAPACITY TO FIGHT.
EVEN IF THEY'VE LOST THE NUMBERS
THE UKRAINIANS CLAIM, THAT MEANS
80% OF THEIR FORCES ARE
AVAILABLE.
THEY'RE REDEPLOYING TO DONBAS.
IT'S OBVIOUS THAT'S THE NEXT
FRONT OF THIS WAR AND THAT COULD
BE A PROTRACTED WAR FOR MONTHS,
IF NOT YEARS.
PUTIN WANTS TO CONNECT CRIMEA TO
DONBAS, CAPTURING MARIUPOL AND
CONNECTING AND MAYBE BEGINNING
TO NEGOTIATE BUT MAYBE STARTING
TO MOVE AGAINST IN KHARKIV AND I
THINK IT'S TOO EARLY TO ASSUME
WE'RE IN THE END GAME OF THE
HORRIBLE, PROTRACTED WAR.
>> I TAKE YOUR ASSESSMENT THAT
WE SHOULD NOT BE MISGUIDED OR
FOOLED BY THE UKRAINIAN SUCCESS
IN HOLDING KYIV AND THE
APPALLING RUSSIAN GROUND WAR
BECAUSE THEY HAVE SO MUCH POWER
FROM THE AIR AND FROM LONG-RANGE
ARTILLERY.
SO, WHAT MORE CAN BLINKEN DO
HERE IN BRUSSELS WITH THE
EUROPEANS IF THEY'RE NOT GOING
TO DO OIL AND GAS SANCTIONS.
THEY DID COAL, WHICH IS NOT THE
MAIN ACT FOR RUSSIA IN TERMS OF
EXPORTS.
WHAT CAN SANCTIONS DO TO SLOW
PUTIN DOWN?
INFLICT MORE PAIN.
>> THE ONE SANCTION IS THE ONE
NOT IN PLAY, WHICH IS TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE THE
EUROPEANS STOPPING THEIR IMPORTS
OF, IN PARTICULAR, GAS AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE NATO.
BUT THERE'S NOTHING, AT THE
MOMENT WE CAN DO, OTHER THAN --
AND I GO BACK TO WHAT YOU WERE
TALKING ABOUT WITH MIKE AND
GENERAL MILLEY WAS TALKING
ABOUT.
TALK TO PEOPLE ABOUT BEING
PREPARED FOR A WAR MEASURED IN
MONTHS OR YEARS AND I THINK IT'S
HIGHLY LIKELY FOR VLADIMIR
PUTIN.
IT'S LESS RISKY FOR HIM TO
SUSTAIN A WAR THAN ACCEPT A
PEACE THAT MIGHT MAKE HIM LOOK
WEAK OR LIKE HE FAILED.
AND HE DOESN'T THINK THE
SANCTIONS ARE COMING OFF
REGARDLESS.
EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT HIM
BEING A WAR CRIMINAL.
HIS INCENTIVE, ESIT'S NOT AS
THOUGH HE OR THE COUNTRY ARE ARE
GOING TO BREAK OUT OF PARIAH
STATUS.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BECOMES
AN OPEN-ENDED WAR OF ATRITION,
ANOTHER FROZEN CONFLICT IN THE
CENTER OF EUROPE.
WE NEED TO GEAR OUR STRATEGY OF
WHAT WILL IT REQUIRE TO SUSTAIN
UKRAINE OVER SUCH A TRAJECTORY?
THAT OUGHT TO BE THE QUESTION
THAT SECRETARY BLIRNGNKEN BEGINS
TALK ABOUT WITH HIS
COUNTERPARTS.
>> AND MIKE McFALL, IS THERE ANY CHANCE THAT THE OTHER POWERS ARE
CHANCE THAT THE OTHER POWERS ARE
GOING TO AGREE TO BE GARENUARENT
WHICH MEANS BOOTS ON THE GROUND.
>> POSSIBLY, THAT'S RIGHT.
THE WAY I UNDERSTAND
NEGOTIATIONS, INCLUDING ONES NOT
FORMAL BUT INFORMAL PROPOSALS.
PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY'S BEEN VERY
FOR
FORWARD AND INNOVATIVE AND I
WOULD SAY CREATIVE IN TWO MAJOR
WAYS.
ONE, HE TALKED ABOUT NEUTRALITY
OR SECURITY GUARANTEE OF THE
U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL AND A FEW
OTHER MEMBERS.
POLAND, TURKEY AND ISRAEL, I
THINK IS STILL ON THE LIST.
THAT IS A VERY HARD THING.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN IN REALITY?
HOW IS THAT DIFFERENT THAN
BUDAPEST?
BUT THEY ARE CONFIDENT THEY
COULD GET THE RUSSIANS TO AGREE
BECAUSE IT WOULD BE A VICTORY
FOR VLADIMIRPUTEN TO GET
NEUTRALITY.
ZELENSKYY AND OTHER UKRAINIAN
OFFICIALS HAVE HINTED THAT THEY
ARE PREPARED TO AGREE TO
DISAGREE ABOUT WHERE THE BORDERS
ARE AND ONLY UNIFY THROUGH