JUDY WOODRUFF: A new analysis by researchers at Harvard University shows that the bed capacity
of hospitals in many parts of the U.S. will be overwhelmed if the COVID-19 coronavirus
continues to spread across the country.
And, as Amna Nawaz reports, hospitals and health care systems are working to increase
their readiness.
AMNA NAWAZ: Judy, the Harvard study indicates that, when spread over a 12-month period,
even a moderate number of coronavirus cases will begin to fill some American hospitals
to capacity, unless they free up already occupied beds.
The faster the pace of infection, and the larger the numbers grow, the greater the shortfalls
become.
For what hospitals are doing to prepare themselves and what more needs to be done, I'm joined
by two people who focus closely on preparedness.
Jeremy Konyndyk is a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development whose
research focuses on global outbreak preparedness, among other things. He joins us by Skype.
And here in the studio, Dr. Bruce Siegel. He's the president and CEO of America's Essential
Hospitals. That's an association of more than 300 hospitals and health care systems.
And welcome to you both.
Dr. Siegel, I want to start with you here. We know there will be a surge of patients.
We know that's coming.
You told my colleague earlier, our hospitals are moving quickly to prepare for that. What
specifically are they doing right now? And are you confident they will be ready?
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL, President and CEO, America's Essential Hospitals: So, the good news is
that millions of health professionals in our hospitals are working hard to prepare.
They are clearing out some of the elective surgery cases, things that don't have to be
done right now, to get that space ready for a surge in patients.
They are expanding their capacity, you know, bringing beds and floors back into use that
were maybe not used, building tents for triage centers and testing in their parking lots
to keep sick patients away from the rest of their patient population. There's a lot going
on.
AMNA NAWAZ: How confident are you they are going to be ready to meet with the expected
surge?
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: I think that they will do a good job of meeting that surge.
I think they will do a good job of meeting that surge. I think if we, as citizens, also
try to make sure that surge as small as possible by distancing ourselves from each other, as
we're doing right now, that will help a huge amount.
My concern will be, will they have the resources for a sustained response? And that's going
to be something that Congress is going to have to really think hard about and act on
in the days ahead.
AMNA NAWAZ: Jeremy Konyndyk, let me ask you about this.
Some people will look at the maps on this. And it's very alarming when you see how much
of the country and how many of our hospitals could become overwhelmed. Those darker red
portions, by the way, represent over 1000 percent capacity for some of those hospitals.
And that's in a moderate scenario.
Tell me how you're looking at this. Do you believe the health care system and the hospitals
can get to the capacity they need to handle even a moderate surge?
JEREMY KONYNDYK, Former USAID Official: I think it's going to be an enormous struggle.
And it's complicated by the fact that we have already lost quite a bit of time. We should
have begun the process of this as soon as we saw what was happening in Wuhan, China,
in mid-January, the way that hospitals and modern hospitals there were overwhelmed very
rapidly by this virus.
We're going to face struggles with PPE. We're going to face struggles with health care workers
becoming infected. We have lost a lot of time. I think there are measures that we can begin
to take. Some of the things that the president announced today are positive.
It would have been better if they'd been announced a month ago. So we're just kind of in catchup
mode still.
AMNA NAWAZ: What did you hear today that was positive?
JEREMY KONYNDYK: Well, I think the Defense Production Act, I think the moving of the
hospital ships, all of those things help somewhat to relieve the pressure.
But they're also -- it's going to take a while. We learned after the announcement that one
of the hospital ships won't be ready to leave port for a few more weeks. Obviously, Defense
Production Act work, if you start telling a company now to start manufacturing ventilators
or N95 masks, that's not going to show up in the supply chain for weeks or months.
AMNA NAWAZ: Dr. Siegel, the PPE that Jeremy mentioned -- that is personal protective equipment
-- that is what your front-line health care workers need...
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: Absolutely.
AMNA NAWAZ: ... to be able to protect themselves when they're handling those patients.
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: Yes.
AMNA NAWAZ: Are you close to having what you need? And how dependent are you on the federal
government to get that supply?
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: So, we are not close to having what we need.
We're already seeing some spot shortages in some areas. And that could get worse, a lot
worse, as the surge materializes. We are very dependent on the federal government for making
this happen.
And I'm glad that there are things happening now to start to get manufacturing up and to
sort of divert resources to this sector. But my biggest concern is that we have stressed
safety net hospitals in this country, stressed rural hospitals with maybe a week of cash
on hand.
As they lose their paying business, as they see a spike in uninsured patients coming in,
as they have to spend millions and millions on treating sick coronavirus patients, they're
going to run out of resources. They will literally could run out of money.
And we're going to need Congress to make sure that we have that backstop to be there for
these communities, given how sobering this is going to be.
AMNA NAWAZ: The other thing people hear a lot about are ventilators and the need for
critical care in severe cases. Do you have the ventilators you need? Are you confident
you will get the supply that you need?
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: We are -- we are working as hard as we can to make it happen. We need
the government to step in. Are we sure we will have what we need? No, we're not. Let's
be very clear about that.
And I'm glad that we're preparing and moving all the things we need to in place, like the
hospital ship. So, that's going to take longer than we expected. But we still have a long
ways to go. And the decisions we make in the next few days around resources, around the
stimulus bill are going to be absolutely critical, so we can really do this for the long haul,
because this may go on longer than some of us would ever, ever like.
AMNA NAWAZ: Jeremy, you mentioned that Defense Production Act the president put into place
today.
To what degree do you think that will fill this gap Dr. Siegel is saying that we know
we have right now? And what other levers of the federal government could we be pulling
and using right now, if needed?
JEREMY KONYNDYK: Yes.
I think the Defense Production Act will -- it basically forces companies to manufacture
certain things. I think the companies would probably be inclined to manufacture those
things anyway, if it keeps the factories running and if there's money behind it.
So I think it's a helpful tool. It probably isn't a total game-changer.
One of the things I'm still hearing about from a lot of the doctors I talk to in New
York City and in Northern California is lack of testing. They are still struggling to get
the testing that they need, both for their patients, but also for themselves. If they
are exposed, it's quite important they be able to get a test quickly to determine whether
they're infected or not, because, if they're infected, they have to go into quarantine.
If they're not, they can stay at work. Right now, if you can't tell, you have to take the
precaution, and you lose them from the work force.
AMNA NAWAZ: Jeremy, when you see the president speaking now, you see a number of different
officials from different agencies working together and working behind him.
Are you confident that every single element, every single resource at the government's
disposal, is being used right now? Or are there other steps they could be taking right
now?
JEREMY KONYNDYK: I'm not confident. And I think that that -- I think they have made
some headway, but they're still not where they need to be.
We were in a sort of inactive mode for about the first month-and-a-half of this, where
we were really not moving out in an expeditious way on preparing the homeland for the arrival
of this virus. I think we have now moved into reactive mode, but we're still not in proactive
mode.
So, yes, they're starting to get some things in motion, but they're still playing catchup.
And I think it's hard to have confidence in the overall management of this, given what
we have seen so far. But I hope it will...
AMNA NAWAZ: Dr. Siegel, when we see some of the projections, obviously, as Jeremy said,
there's a lot we don't know.
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: Right.
AMNA NAWAZ: We don't know how long it will take. We don't know when the surges will happen,
when those viruses will peak.
How do hospitals prepare for this? Do they go for the worst-case scenario? Or do they
hope for a mild outbreak?
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: Oh, you have to think about the worst-case scenario.
So our hospitals are really thinking about, how bad could this get, and realizing that
make a bed in one community now, and maybe it'll get worse in another community some
weeks later. But they have to be prepared for the worst, or at least do their best to
get to that point.
We can't be optimistic or -- hope is not a policy here. We have got to really -- and
I'm confident they are -- our hospital leaders and nurses and doctors prepare for how bad
this could be, even though we hope to avoid it by doing the things we're trying to do
right now.
AMNA NAWAZ: We all hope those plans will come together.
Dr. Bruce Siegel and Jeremy Konyndyk, thank you very much for your time.
DR. BRUCE SIEGEL: Thank you.
JEREMY KONYNDYK: Pleasure.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And please join us tomorrow, when we are hosting a virtual town hall, "Confronting
Coronavirus," at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:00 Central, on all PBS stations and streaming on the PBS
app and on the "PBS NewsHour" social channels, including YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.
Please watch to hear some of your questions answered by people who are on the front lines
of the crisis.