By the time you see this video, the Ukrainian spring/summer offensive should have begun.
But the question on everyone's lips for the last six months has been: what next?
There's a tendency to think that “everything” hinges on the coming offensive, but the truth is,
no matter what happens, the war is unlikely to end this year. While most people hope that the
coming offensive is successful, even a complete failure won't be enough to end Ukraine's military
resistance. And barring a complete internal collapse of the Russian military, another
rout similar to that suffered in the fall of 2022 also won't be enough to end Russian occupation.
In preparation for this offensive, Ukraine has pulled an unknown but significant amount of troops
from the front lines. This is why for months, there has been little movement on the front,
as tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, artillerymen, and tankers were all pulled
to rear areas or sent out of country to train for the coming offensive. Famously,
a month ago a video was released of British soldiers providing an honor
guard for departing Ukrainian soldiers who had just wrapped up months of training.
The UK, Poland, and other NATO nations have been host to Ukrainian crews training for the
coming offensive has been a priority, but training on new 155mm howitzers,
Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, and Patriot air defense systems have all been ongoing for
months. A vanguard force of an unknown number has been training under NATO instruction for months,
with the UK, Finland, New Zealand, Canada, the US, the Netherlands, Denmark,
and the Baltic countries all sending instructors to help prepare these troops for the task to come.
Ukraine has opted to fight a defensive war over the summer of 2022 and into the spring
of this year, making almost no new gains and simply holding what it took back in
the fall. But this was a big gamble, with tens of thousands of troops pulled off the
front lines for specialist training. Ukraine has invested big into the coming offensive,
and luckily for it, its frontline troops have largely held their positions against
the Russian onslaught. The Battle of Bakhmut, which has now been raging for 10 months,
has been a strategic boondoggle for the Russians, and an absolute godsend to the Ukrainians.
Many have criticized Ukraine for holding on to a strategically worthless city,
even as they criticized the Russians for expending as many as 100,000 men attempting to take it over
the better part of a year. News reports ran stories for months of US generals advising
the Ukrainians to pull out, and of President Zelensky refusing to. However, it's only now
that we've learned just how devastating a toll Ukraine has exacted on Russia for a completely
strategically worthless village, with an estimated 100,000 dead and wounded in this one battle alone.
Ukraine has suffered as well, though its estimates are far lower given that they were on the defense,
with about 15,000 to 20,000 killed. And all has not gone according to
plan. Through intense pressure and the sacrifice of thousands of Wagner prisoner
recruits used in human wave attacks, Russia has managed to close the vice
around Bakhmut while taking a huge toll on Ukrainian forces. The situation was so dire,
that Ukraine was forced to pull some of its elite special forces, training for the coming offensive,
to reinforce Bakhmut and beat back a Russian flanking attack. These were forces that Ukraine
was hoping to keep fresh and fighting fit to be used when it came time to attack,
and it was forced to instead dedicate them to Bakhmut or suffer an encirclement.
But Bakhmut has served to focus Russian efforts across the east, allowing Ukraine to concentrate
defenses there and freeing up its best forces to undergo months of training. While it has been a
meat grinder for both sides, history will almost certainly prove Ukraine the winner- if simply
because it managed to completely exhaust Russian forces over months of fighting.
And even now reports from Bakhmut are coming in which may hint at what's to come.
Early in May, Wagner Group's Prigozhin warned that due to the Russian ministry of defense cutting off
his troops from supplies, he was going to pull out of his positions. For months now,
the Russian MOD has played a cat and mouse game with Prigozhin, with neither side having much
love for the other. It all comes down to a rivalry between Prigozhin and his private
military company, and Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the Russian military he
oversees. Putin has kept both jostling for his favor and at each other's throats, the way any
good dictator sows chaos amongst his subordinates to prevent them banding together against him.
But the personal drama has led to open firefights between the two groups and now a supply embargo,
leaving Wagner forces without the ammunition or shells needed to keep fighting. There is a
strong possibility that Shoigu has purposefully cut Wagner off right before the PMC took the
whole of Bakhmut, as now Ukraine is hanging on to only the very western outskirts of it. Perhaps,
Shoigu wishes to take Bakhmut with the regular Russian military in order to deny
Prigozhin of the prize he's been fighting over for nearly a year. This would not be unheard of,
given that the Russian MOD took credit for the capture of Soledar earlier this year,
despite it having been Wagner who did most of the fighting. The move drew a
litany of protests from Prigozhin, who began to openly criticize the MOD and
Shoigu himself via social media in what would be tantamount to sedition in any other government.
Indeed, the Russian army, which holds the flanks around Bakhmut, have been making slow gains in
an attempted encirclement. If they were to succeed and close the pincer around Bakhmut,
the army could claim victory and once more leave Prigozhin out in the cold. Prigozhin
may have seen this coming as he's now announced that he was considering pulling Wagner out of
the war completely multiple times, with the most recent threat drawing condemnation from
Russian generals who said that Wagner abandoning its positions would be punishable as treason.
Prigozhin warned that on May 10th he would leave his positions unless his forces were
immediately resupplied. Taking the threat seriously, the Russian army opened up its
stockpiles- and then promptly shut them back up again, prompting a new round of
protests on May 9th. This infighting may be what decides how the war plays out next.
Russian regular forces may be attempting to close the vice on Bakhmut, but on May
8th the news broke that Russians were in retreat across parts of the southern sector
as Ukrainian forces counterattacked. While since then there's been no sign that this was
the promised theater-wide counterattack, it's speculated that Russian forces may
have feared it was. They have known for months that Ukraine was massing for a counterattack,
and remember the massive rout suffered in the north and the fall of Kherson. Western influence
and pysops have also been targeting Russians both at home and on the front, and there's
speculation that at least some Russian troops may have been breaking and running from fear of
being caught up in a massive attack powered by western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
The gains have been small, but they have effectively stopped any attempt
to surround Bakhmut and bought the few thousand Ukrainians still defending the
city a bit more breathing room. However, the breaking and running of Russian troops
could be emblematic of just how poorly Russian forces are prepared for the coming offensive.
Ukraine has not been the only one to prepare for a coming attack, Russia too has been doing
what it could to prepare to defend what it's taken. Miles upon miles of trenches,
dragon's teeth, and mine fields have been laid out to stop or slow Ukrainian attacks. Leaked
intelligence shows that the Russians have also been organizing special task forces
to take on western tanks when they make their appearance- and this may be the
smartest thing that Russia has done all war. Which is setting a pretty low bar.
The world is waiting with bated breath to see Ukraine attack Russian forces with western
Leopard 2s, Bradley IFVs, and eventually, Abrams main battle tanks. Much has been made about the
capabilities of these vehicles versus their Russian counterparts, and for the most part,
the assesments are true. This has created a sort of global hype though,
and Ukraine won't just be fighting for its territory when it throws western
tanks into the battle- it'll be fighting for public support.
Russia knows that many westerners opposed the sending of tanks and heavy IFVs, and they have
expended great efforts to scare the west into ceasing arms supply to Ukraine via threats of
nukes and other fantastical terror scenarios. If Russia can use special task forces to destroy
Ukranian operated western tanks, it could prove to many in the west that it's fruitless to continue
sending large amounts of very expensive equipment. Likewise, Russia also knows that its own troops
are scared shitless of the capabilities of western equipment, and destroying dozens of
Leopard 2s could do miracles for ever-dwindling Russian morale. Likewise, runaway success for
Ukraine on the backs of American Bradleys and German Leopard 2s could turn Russia's significant
morale problem into a full-blown crisis. There's few Russians who don't remember the performance
of western hardware against the same Soviet equipment they are now operating in Desert Storm.
Russia's military is simply too large to be defeated in a single, even wildly successful
counterattack- but a morale crisis could spell the doom of Russia's war efforts. It's happened
before, with massive mutinies rocking the Russian imperial military in World War I,
and leading to revolution. Putin's special western tank-killer forces may not just be
fighting for the future of the war, but for Putin's personal future as well.
Ukraine has been well equipped for the coming battle, including American M58
MICLICs for handling Russian mine fields. These mine clearing charges shoot out a
line of explosives a few hundred meters long and then detonate to create a clear
lane for tanks to advance. Ukraine has also been provided with the engineering
vehicles necessary to clear paths for heavy vehicles through thick Russian mine fields,
and destroy dragon's teeth and other anti-tank fortifications. America's most senior generals
have commented that they are satisfied that Ukraine has all it needs for the coming offensive.
In all likelihood, the offensive will take place near Zarporizhia, as Ukraine's best
move would be to punch through the middle of Russian lines in order to reach Mariupol
and sever Russia's southern forces from resupply. However, recently Ukraine has been fighting small
skirmishes along islands on the Dnipro, pushing Russian forces off of them. A nation-wide call
for life vests and small boats has led many to speculate that Ukraine may surprise everyone and
launch an offensive directly across the Dnipro. However, it's incredibly unlikely Ukraine would
opt to do this as it would be very difficult to move heavy equipment across the river.
Russian sources have speculated that Ukraine may attack north and into Russia itself,
taking Belgorod, prompting a small panic in the Russian border region. However,
this is incredibly unlikely as President Zelensky has repeatedly stated that he has no plan to take
even an inch of Russian territory. This is also unlikely because doing so would
seriously anger Ukraine's NATO partners, who don't want to give Russia any reason
to escalate the war to the nuclear threshold. It would also sour the opinion of some in the west,
and public opinion is all-important to the continued resupply of Ukrainian forces.
And resupply is the name of the game, because barring a miracle, Ukraine's coming offensive
won't end the war. Instead, it'll eat up massive amounts of equipment which will all
need to be replaced by western nations- and this is Ukraine's major advantage over Russia. Russia
has the manpower, but it has very little metal. Ukraine meanwhile has been building large amounts
of metal via donated Western vehicles, but it isn't enough- and what has been pledged needs
to be immediately resupplied because no matter how good Leopard 2s and Abrams are, they will be lost
in combat. Russia still retains the air advantage, and tanks are notoriously allergic to air attack.
If Ukraine fatigue sets in, the nation could see the supply of western equipment drying up-
and there is no doubt that despite the heroism and ingenuity of Ukraine's defenders, they would have
been defeated long ago without western weapons, financial support, and intelligence. At this
moment, it's a race between Ukraine and Russia- one side is building a massive manpower pool,
and the other is trying to equip a far smaller pool with far more advanced weapons. Without the
west, and the support of its populations, Ukraine will lose this race and the war.
Luckily, the current US President- Joe Biden- has reaffirmed his long-term support for Ukraine,
with yet another $1.2 billion aid package being recently announced. And this package
is a spicy one. Amongst the announced aid is much more 155mm artilery rounds,
which US factories have been expanding their capacity to produce at breakneck
speeds. Also included are more air defense systems, though the exact natures of which
are unannounced so as to deny Russian critical intelligence. However, educated guesses point to
more Patriot and NASAMs batteries, as well as Stinger systems for foot soldiers. Also
included are more and new radars and missiles, but perhaps most importantly is funds dedicated
to figuring out how to integrate Ukraine's Soviet era kit with modern American weapons.
Ukraine has a lot of Soviet kit that there's simply no more ammo for. American agents have
been scouring the world for every available S-300 missile they could get to feed Ukraine's
air defense batteries. But inevitably, they have now been coming up short as global stocks
from friendly nations dwindle out. Yet the S-300 systems remain fully operational, they just have
nothing to shoot. This is where a US-led effort to integrate these systems with modern US munitions
comes in. Because if a workaround can be found to integrate missiles such as Patriot interceptors
or SM-3s or SM-6s with Ukraine's Soviet kit, then that's significantly cheaper than having
to provide entire air defense systems- and it would dramatically improve Ukraine's capabilities.
There's some precedent for success with some very clever American engineers
figuring out how to jerryrig US HARM missiles onto Ukrainian Migs. However,
it wasn't possible to make the two systems fully compatible, limiting the effectiveness
of the American made anti-radiation missiles. Something is better than nothing though,
and Ukraine put its HARM missiles to fantastic use even in their limited capacity,
seriously degrading Russian air defense radar coverage and artillery counter-battery radars.
What's got everyone talking though is an unspecified amount of quote- classified
aid. This has set the rumor mill ablaze, because there's a lot of very fancy US kit that Ukraine
could put to great use liberating Russians from their lives. Some have predicted that this would
end up being the ATACMs missiles that Ukraine has been asking for, but that's unlikely as
President Biden has been stubbornly refusing to provide the weapon. This hasn't stopped the UK,
who is seeking a way to crowdsource with other nations the cost of purchasing Storm Shadow
long-range attack missiles for Ukraine. With a range up to 300km (186 miles),
Storm Shadow missiles can be fired from Ukrainian jets with no problem, and would
put targets that Ukrainian HIMARS can't reach at risk- leveling the playing field significantly.
There is speculation that part of that classified aid could be American LRASMs- it's latest
generation of long range anti-ship missiles. These stealthy missiles take a dramaticaly different
approach to the new generation of Russian and Chinese anti-ship missiles. Instead of flying
incredibly fast, they fly at subsonic speeds with an internal jet engine. But where they
have the advantage is in their very stealthy design and advanced artificial intelligence.
The actual detection range of an LRASM is classified, but they have the capability of
significantly reducing engagement time for surface ships, dramatically improving odds of a hit.
LRASMs can be fired from either planes, ships, or even ground canisters. It's unlikely that they're
compatible with Ukrainian jets, but with a range in excess of 300 nautical miles (560 km), LRASMs
launched from Odessa would reach Russian ships almost anywhere in the Black Sea. And sinking the
Russian Black Sea fleet is a priority for Ukraine, as its those same ships that Russia has been using
to launch volleys of cruise missiles against its civilians. While the Russian navy is too
terrified to leave port, their ships still make great launch platforms for long-range missiles.
Sinking these ships would severely limit Russia's ability to launch cruise missile strikes,
but it would also inflict a devastating financial cost on Russia. NATO is keenly
interested in seeing the Russian Black Sea Fleet turn into the Russian Black Sea marine preserve,
as it would end Russia's days as a naval power in the region, thus while remote,
the possibility of LRASM being provided to Ukraine is not zero.
But one weapon could define the war to come even more than western tanks- F-16s.
Ukraine has been asking for western F-16s since the war began, and the west has been reluctant to
provide them. The issue is complicated, as Russian air defenses remain formidable across the front,
and F-16s would have a tough time operating with such dense air defenses. For its part,
Ukraine wants a way of knocking Russian bombers and fighters out of the sky,
and help to keep its troops safe from air attack. Without some significant development
on the battlefield though, its unlikely F-16s are the best option at the moment,
and thus the US has been reluctant to provide them.
Now go check out Russia Just Lost Biggest Tank Battle of Ukraine War,
or click this other video instead.