GOVERNOR
GOVERNOR LITTLE'S DECISION TODAY? WHAT FACTORS DID HE
CONSIDER?
A LOT OF OUR LEADERS
HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT
COVID-19 FORECAST
MODELS TO GAUGE WHAT
WE DO NEXT.
AND A LOT OF THEM
HAVE LOOKED AT THIS
MODEL FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF
WASHINGTON.
IT CAN BE BROKEN DOWN
BY STATE AND IT PAINTS A
PRETTY PICTURE WHEN IT
LOOKS AT IDAHO.
HOWEVER, IT'S NOT THE
MOST ACCURATE
DEPICTION OF WHAT IS
HAPPENING OR COULD
HAPPEN IN THE GEM
STATE.
I SPOKE WITH DOCTOR
BENJAMIN RIDENHOUR
TODAY...A BIOMEDICAL
RESEARCHER IN THE
UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO
MATH DEPARTMENT.
HE TOLD ME THE U-W
MODEL IS BASICALLY TOO
SIMPLISTIC...AND IS A
MORE OF A STATISTICAL
MODEL BASED ON WHAT
HAPPENED IN WUHAN,
CHINA.
AND IT JUST OVERLAYS
THAT INFORMATION TO
APPLY TO, SAY, IDAHO.
AND IF YOU ADD
INTERVENTIONS...LIKE
CLOSING SCHOOLS...YOU
GET A 33-PERCENT
IMPROVEMENT ON
TRANSMISSION.
SOCIAL-DISTANCING
TRANSMISSION. SOCIAL-DISTANCING RULES WOULD DECREASE
TRANSMISSION ANOTHER
66-PERCENT.
AND TRAVEL
RESTRICTIONS WOULD
BUMP IT UP ANTOHER
33-PERCENT.
SO JUST BY DOING THREE
THINGS...THE U-W MODEL
ASSUMES YOU WOULD
THE SPREAD WOULD
CEASE...AND THE DISEASE
WOULD JUST GO AWAY.
DOCTOR RIDENHOUR HAS
BEEN WORKING ON AN
IDAHO-SPECIFIC MODEL
SINCE JANUARY
AND IT TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT THINGS LIKE
IDAHO'S RURAL
POPULATION, AGE
DISTRIBUTION, OUR
TRAVEL BETWEEN CITIES.
SO IT'S A BETTER FIT FOR
IDAHO'S LEADERS TO USE
TO MAKE DECISIONS.
AND THEY HAVE BEEN.
BUT IT'S NOT PERFECT.
RIDNEHOUR SAYS THE
DATA THEY NEED TO BUILD
A MORE PERFECT
MODEL...HASN'T ALWAYS
BEEN AVAILABLE.
404 THE DATA HAVE BEEN
COMING IN FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY...BUT THERE
ARE OTHER BITS THAT
HAVE BEEN HARD TO
TRACK DOWN...HOSPITAL
CAPCAITY...HOW LONG
PEOPLE ARE SPENDING IN
THE
THE HOSPITAL...AND EVEN KNOWIN HOW MUCH TESTING...THOSE ARE
IMPORTANT WHEN IT
COMES TO LIFTING
INTERVENTIONS OR
PUTTING MORE
INTERVENTIONS IN PLACE
450
710 WE GET A LOT OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHY
ARE WE NOT TALKING
ABOUT THE RECOVERY
NUMBERS, ARE YOU GUYS
INCLUDING THAT IN YOUR
MODEL
MODEL AND
MODEL AND WHAT ARE YOU SEEING? 720 SO UNFORTUNATELY
WE ARE NOT ABLE TO GET
RECOVERY NUMBERS...SO
WE'RE LEFT USING DATA
ABOUT NEW
INFECTIONS...AND TRYING
INFECTIONS...AND TRYING
TO
TO INFER
TO INFER HOW LONG IT TAKES PEOPLE TO RECOVER 744
755 AND ONE OF THE
REAL
REAL CHALLENGES...THERE'S THIS LARGE SUBCLINICAL
GROUP...ASYMPTOMATIC...
GROUP...ASYMPTOMATIC...
NEVER
NEVER GO
NEVER GO TO THE DOCTOR...BLIND SPOT IN SOME OF THE MODELS
818
1135 ARE YOU
CONCERNED
CONCERNED THAT THE LACK OF TESTING OR BACKLOG IN TESTING IS
HINDERING YOUR MODEL
A BIT?
1145 YEAH I GUES IT DOES
HINDER OUR MODEL A
BIT...WE DONT KNOW
EXACTLY
EXACTLY HOW MANY ARE POSTIVE...THAT'S THE BACKLOG BIT
1231 WE KNOW WE CAN
STOP DOING
INTERVENTIONS WHEN
PEOPLE STOP TESTING
POSITIVE FOR THIS THING
RIGHT? THAT'S THE KEY BIT
AND SO IF YOU'R ENOT
TESTING YOU DON'T
KNOW IF YOU CAN STOP
...TRUE 1242
819 YOU'RE NOT MAKING
THIS MODEL PUBLIC
RIGHT?
822 YEAH RIGHT NOW
WE'RE KEEPING THIS IN
HOUSE...HELPING THE
GOVERNORS TASK
FORCE...OTHER STAKE
HOLDERS LIKE
BOISE...WHAT WE MIGHT
EXPECT
EXPECT IF
EXPECT IF WE LIFT...TRY TO PROVIDE THE BEST INFO WE CAN TO THE PEOPLE
THAT MAKE POLICY AND
THAT MAKE DECISIONS
THEN LET THEM RUN
WITH THAT AND DECIDE
WHAT TO DO 906
DOCTOR
DOCTOR RIDENHOUR SAYS HE AGREES WITH GOVERNOR LITTLE'S
DECISION TO EXTEND THE
STAY AT HOME ORDER
TODAY.
AS FOR THE PLANS TO
MAKE HIS MODEL
PUBLIC...THAT IS IN THE
WORKS...JUST NOT RIGHT
NOW.
THERE ARE ALREADY A
LOT OF OUTSIDE
INFLUENCES TRYING TO
DIRECT DECISIONS OUR
LEADERS HAVE TO MAKE.
AND HE SAYS