The question is, of course,
is this a reversal on the bigger timeframe or just on the 1-hour?
Because it is a 1-hour reversal,
but that doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to reverse the daily or 4-hourly trend.
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Today, I sat down with Carl from The Moon, as we do every Thursday,
to discuss technical analysis.
We're going to discuss where Bitcoin is heading to.
Is it bullish or bearish? We know that's the question on everybody's mind.
But we're also going to be talking about Bitcoin dominance
and how it could lead to a second major altcoin season.
We're also going to take a look at Ethereum.
While over the long term everyone seems to be bullish,
is it bearish in the short term next to Bitcoin's value?
Carl is going to tell you all about that.
Now, as always,
if you want to take advantage of anything that we talk about in this video,
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Alright. Let's go ahead and jump into the interview.
Hey, everybody! Today, I'm joined by Carl from The Moon.
You guys don't forget to go down below to the video description
and hit that subscribe button on his channel.
You can find that link.
So, Carl, Bitcoin has been kind of erratic lately.
You know, a few days ago, everybody was talking about the sky is falling.
Now, everybody's like, "Oh, we're heading back to the moon."
And you, a specialist on The Moon,
I need you to tell us
which way are we going?
And then we're also going to be looking at Ethereum here in a little bit as well.
So what do you got for us today, Carl?
Yeah, I got some Bitcoin technical analysis, some Ethereum technical analysis,
and I do believe that the most important thing if you want to know more about altcoins
- is to keep an eye on the Bitcoin dominance - Yes.
because that's how you can gauge if we're in an altcoin season or not.
And, yeah, I think that's very important, so we're going to definitely look at that as well.
- But let's head straight into the charts. - Okay.
Alright. So here we are on the Bitcoin chart on the 1-hour timeframe,
and we can see that, of course, Bitcoin had formed this horizontal triangle.
And this broke down.
And I've been telling my audience for a long time here that if we break down here,
I'm going to put in a short position.
And I live by my word.
I put in a short.
And we all made some money off of that short because of course we did fall down.
And then we can see that we formed also a bullish divergence right here.
And that's when I made a video telling people that
this seems like a place for a potential bullish reversal on the 1-hour,
and I'm taking profits on my short.
And eventually I actually closed my whole short
as soon as we broke above this head and soulders neckline.
But the question is, of course,
is this a reversal on the bigger timeframe or just on the 1-hour?
Because it is a 1-hour reversal,
but that doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to reverse the daily or 4-hourly trend.
And we can see here that, so far, as we're recording this,
we still have lower highs here.
- This is still a lower high. - Yeah.
And this is--
so on the 4-hour timeframe, you can say then-- or look at this. If we go to the 4-hour,
I would say that we definitely want to break above this level
for us to create a 4-hour uptrend.
So this means that $39,200 is a very, very important level for Bitcoin to break above right now
because we are in a downtrend here on the 4-hour.
If we go to the daily,
we are also very, very clearly in a bear trend.
You can make the case that we are in a bear market on the daily timeframe,
so, sure, people are saying that we're going to the moon right now,
but when you zoom out, you can see that, well,
there's a lot that has to happen for us to flip bullish on the daily timeframe.
So I would say $39.2K,
that is my big level for Bitcoin to watch.
If we cannot break above this level,
then that means that we're creating another lower high.
And this means that the downtrend is still actually the strongest trend.
And remember, the trend is your friend at all times, guys.
At all times.
But that said,
Bitcoin is always going to be back.
So I know that whenever I short Bitcoin,
- I always get dislikes. - Yeah.
Because people don't like when you short Bitcoin.
But it's just I'm taking advantage of price volatility.
And I'm sure you're doing that as well sometimes.
Like, we know about the long term--
We know that Bitcoin is going to go to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
It's going to go to millions of dollars,
but it's not going to go straight up to the moon.
- We're going to see volatility and-- - Yeah.
and if we're serious about trading,
we should entertain long positions and short positions.
And some people don't like that, but it is what it is basically.
But that's what I'm seeing for Bitcoin.
Yeah, I think that, you know.
We definitely have got to see some numbers higher than where we're at now.
If we want to get back into a bull trend,
we want to have a reversal on this to get back heading towards a bull market.
And, you know, looking at this chart right here, it just doesn't look that great.
I think the reason why a lot of people are excited right now is because
there's a lot of great fundamental news going on for Bitcoin.
El Salvador taking Bitcoin.
We're seeing a lot of crypto mentions in the news.
So it's getting a lot of awareness.
So hopefully, we can get back, you know, on an uptrend.
Now, what are you seeing for Bitcoin versus Ethereum right now?
Because I think that's pretty interesting to look at as well.
Exactly. Let's go to the chart.
This is Ethereum against the Bitcoin price.
And we can see that when Bitcoin got this little run-up and dump actually,
so during this whole volatility we've seen now,
Ethereum has been correcting against Bitcoin.
As you can see here.
And this comes after Ethereum has been extremely bullish on Bitcoin--
against Bitcoin.
We've been talking about it I think on our collaboration before that
- Ethereum has been looking very healthy with higher highs, higher lows, - Right.
and then we just smashed up like this.
And this is all very, very bullish for Ethereum.
And I still think that Ethereum is looking bullish against Bitcoin
if you zoom out because, I mean, we haven't really broken, like, key support in my opinion just yet.
We're still kind of in a bull tre--
I mean, we're in a bull trend in my opinion.
Of course, this is a lower high against this high.
So we have to see how this is going to resolve in the next few weeks here.
What could happen is we form for example--
We could form a bull flag.
A bull flag that could break up, right?
We could form--
There's so many things that could form here
- that we cannot see right now. - Yeah.
We have to wait and let the price mature.
That's what we have to do here.
It's an odd looking pattern.
Yeah, right now, there's, like, there's no pattern here, right?
It's--
- It's hard to see anything at all. - Yeah.
I would just bring out maybe the EMA ribbons and take a look at that.
And if we do that on the daily timeframe,
then you can obviously see and confirm what I said.
We are in an uptrend on the daily.
We haven't broken key support here just yet.
- In fact, we got a perfect bounce right there off of the bottom EMA ribbon. - Yeah.
And right now, we're still above it.
So Ethereum could correct all the way down to these levels here at 0.06 against Bitcoin
to still remain in this bull trend.
So, yeah. But that's Ethereum against Bitcoin.
If we go into this chart,
this is Ethereum against the US dollar.
And let me go into the 1-hour.
So here, we saw Ethereum also form an inverse head and shoulders just like Bitcoin did.
But Bitcoin flew up, while Ethereum lagged behind.
And that's why we saw the Ethereum price against Bitcoin correct right--
And we have this bullish divergence,
which, of course, is showing us that we're going to go sideways or up here.
The bearish thing about Ethereum right now is that if we zoom out on the 4-hour,
we are clearly, clearly in a downtrend as you can see.
We formed this ascending triangle.
- And obviously that's a bullish pattern. - Yeah.
It didn't break up though.
We actually broke down.
Which might be surprising to someone who's new to technical analysis,
but, of course, a bullish pattern does not guarantee a bullish breakout.
If you look at this like this,
technically, the target should be $1700 for Ethereum,
but I wouldn't say that I'm necessarily targeting that.
I am not in an Ethereum short, just to be clear about that.
So I don't think that that's-- that's not my target in this moment.
I am a little bit confused about Ethereum right now.
Right now, I just pay more attention to the Bitcoin chart because I think that
whatever happens on Bitcoin is going to result in an Ethereum break--
so if we break bullish here,
if Bitcoin break above this $39.2K,
then I think it's obvious that we're going to see the same thing in Ethereum.
We're also going to break above this level up here at $2,880.
This is a very, very important level for Ethereum.
- So-- - Yeah.
so I think that instead of hoping for Ethereum to break above here,
let's just see if Bitcoin can break back above.
And if we continue the bear trend here,
then obviously, as always,
Ethereum and altcoins are also going to continue to follow Bitcoin.
I think that's-- that's what always happens, right?
- Yeah. And it's interesting-- - So that's my Ethereum analysis.
interesting when you look at Ethereum and you look at the chart
and how if you compare it really to the Bitcoin chart,
it's like this triangle was getting to the end of this triangle or this pendant is a bullish pattern,
but because Bitcoin broke down,
even though this is a bullish pattern,
Ethereum also broke down.
I think that's what what we generally see.
I mean, we know the Ethereum price, we would like it to stand on its own two legs,
but it just continues to be tied to Bitcoin.
So we're definitely going to keep an eye on that $2800 level.
We've got to break that to get going back bullish for Ethereum again.
And hopefully we will do that soon.
So, Carl, thank you so much for joining us today.
As always, every week on Thursdays,
you come. You show the people exactly what's going on in the markets.
And we appreciate that.
Anything you want to leave us with today?
- Yes. The Bitcoin dominance. - Oh, you want to show the dominance chart.
- That's right. I forgot about that. - I will take a look at.
I'll just show it real quick here because I think that it's very important to keep an eye on that actually.
So let's just--
let's just--
let's just see or let's--
- We can see that we had an altcoin season, right? - Yeah.
- This huge altcoin season. - Yeah.
And the trend was our friend,
and we did-- we made a lot of money here, right?
- Right now, we're seeing the first signs of a potential reversal here in my opinion. - Yeah.
We're seeing some consolidation,
some big pushbacks from the Bitcoin dominance,
and right now in the past couple of days,
the Bitcoin dominance is once again starting to creep to the upside.
I will be watching this level right here
at approximately 46%
because you could make the case that this is a double bottom, right?
So if we break above this level,
then this could potentially be a reversal point for Bitcoin dominance,
indicating that altcoins are probably not going to do so well in the next couple of months.
I don't say that this is confirmed yet.
I want to break above this level before I say that it's over for altcoins.
So, yeah, that's my quick analysis for the Bitcoin dominance.
I would say that
I wouldn't necessarily be very bullish on altcoins for the next few months here.
- I think that we already saw the altcoin season. - Yeah.
And the next altcoin season might happen maybe after some of this, right?
- I think we need some consolidation. - Yeah.
We need a pullback.
A healthy correction basically, weed out the speculation.
There was too much Shiba Inu and those speculation in my opinion.
- I mean, - Yeah.
it was a little bit too much of that, maybe a little bit too fast,
a little bit too much memecoin action, right?
I don't know. That's just my opinion. I think we need some correction there.
Yeah, I definitely agree with you there.
I think there probably is a correction coming.
I think we do have a larger altcoin season coming down the road,
but we'll just have to keep an eye on that.
So thank you for showing us that dominance chart.
It's a very important chart.
So, everybody, drop your comments down below.
Let me know what you think is going on in the crypto markets.
We'd love to get your opinions. Don't forget to smash that like button.
Let's see if we can get this video to 20,000 likes.
Carl, as always, thank you for joining us.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.