you know I really love analyzing the movie business and when you take a
genuine step back and you break this stuff down and you see the patterns
emerge over the decades of the business it's fascinating and we're about to have
a really fascinating discussion wait till you see how this plays out it's
just it's you can't get more entertaining than this right
all right so wholly DC you're actually in play but you ain't out of the woods
yet either and as I said we're gonna break that down right now so Warner
Brothers use the Oscar playbook that they developed for a stars board and
look for them to probably continue to use this going forward but they've used
it now to launch Joker a movie which also walks that fine line between high
art and mainstream Lady Gaga fans DC fans right even as one of you pointed
out down to the minute for each film standing ovation at Venice that's even a
little weird they both got eight minutes of a standing ovation so we're and some
of the buzz for Joker is incredibly strong especially because Warner
Brothers cleverly stacked the critic deck with a number of fan sites not all
the reviews came out of Venice still they weren't able to debut with a Rotten
Tomatoes score in the 90s a star is born just glued by when it debuted it's a
rotten tomato score at 90% now Joker debuted an 85 look promising Lee it has
gone up a point since then to 86 but who knows where it'll end up because Rotten
Tomatoes I don't know if you saw this headline but they just let in 600 new
critics so the score not only has a month to go but it could wildly change
at the last minute because there's no way that 600 critics well maybe I don't
know we'll see it depends how you know important that you know how much how
much massaging the studio's want to do to the Rotten Tomatoes core but it would
be hard to give all those critics industry press access so they'll be
seeing and reviewing the film when it opens so we'll see
you know how rotten tomatos scores fluctuate when you know like the
Thursday to Friday window when movies actually open but anyway also there's a
handful of negative reviews they are getting a lot of coverage online I saw
actually what have you even tweet me and say how does it don't for not have a
hundred percent Rotten Tomatoes score but every review I've seen is positive
well they're not all positive it's only for right now that are negative but the
slight wrinkle is that they're not just small critics trying to stand out from
the crowd get some clicks it's respectable outlets so one two of them
two of the four is industry trade the rack and the other is Time magazine and
where that's of note what's important about that is that that's that's a
precedent so that if any other critic is so inclined to give this movie a bad
review they're not gonna feel like they're gonna be left out in the cold
you know public pressure and destroy pressure a fan pressure became a big
deal especially after the Dark Knight Rises a lot of threats on Rotten
Tomatoes so you know I think that if it had been like all positive reviews I
think that would have put more pressure on incoming critics to also give
positive reviews but again the rap and Time magazine create they open that door
if anyone wants to walk through it the movie looks amazing hopefully nobody
will you know hopefully it's like it's like legit great but that's something to
keep in mind so still though the good news is that
there is an overwhelming amount of positive buzz and speaking of Nolan it's
like Dark Knight level enthusiasm you know the one that everyone made a big
deal about Dark Knight Rises was not good but anyway the biggest buzz is for
Joaquin Phoenix for a Best Actor and speaking of the Dark Knight if our
Warner Brothers this would be my play Awards wise I would say remember what
happened Academy when you snub the Dark Knight for Best Picture
you still haven't lived it down you had to change your rules to how many movies
didn't nominate cuz that was such a disaster for you PR wise and you're
Brady's kind of still haven't recovered hmm that's what I would say and so this
movie has that going for it last year a star's born was nominated for an
astounding eight Academy Awards with the seasoning
on-air performance by Bradley Cooper and Lady gaga and it was dominated all the
major categories but it only walked away with best song however Joaquin Phoenix
has the benefit of already having been nominated three times for an Oscar yet
never winning so he can use the campaign strategy of it's his time for an Oscar
but here's where things get absolutely bonkers interesting Marvel is getting
ready to push Robert Downey jr. for an Oscar for 10 years as Iron Man the
foundation and beating heart of the biggest franchise of all time right that
movie has a 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes
I'm sure Warner Brothers wishes that we're somewhere like in the 80s like
some of the other Marvel movies have been no 94 and it's the new avatar
itself an Oscar juggernaut with nine nominations but only 1/3 of them and all
and all of them in secondary categories but still you know there's some lustre
to being the biggest movie of all time right wouldn't it be nice if that was
critically respected as well and that's where the Oscars comes in and after a
decade of the MCU playing it safe and being criticized for that what do you
know it damn it this is the one year that they decided to finally take some
risks also Robert Downey jr. has been nominated twice for an Oscar he hasn't
won either so whose time is it I don't know what happens the end of Joker I
have not had the chance to see the film yet but we know Robert Downey jr. will
have another opportunity to be nominated for Iron Man oh man it's crazy
furthermore with his strong campaign for Black Panther last year seven huge
nominations three wins although again not any of the major categories but
still Kevin Feige Zords connections are strong and fresh and there's already
been some already been some movement on Robert Downey jr. and game Oscar
campaign Jon Favreau's I'm starting to put the word out so the question is -
Robert Downey jr. misses window now the Joker is on the picture or is Joker too
early and Robert Downey jr. is biding his time and he'll kick things off more
in the actual awards season and get some momentum in perfect timing right now
here's the thing you might be like just nominate them both can they both be
nominated right to comic book movies in the Best
Actor category in the same year like how comic book heavy to be to the
ratings desperate Academy Awards so that there's that bad factor but how comic
book heavy do they want to get while at the same time maintaining their artistic
credibility and not angering the artistic community that feels threatened
and even suffocated by these comic book movies they they might just decide to
pick one they might spread up the nominations
between the two of them maybe I can't imagine not nominating either of these
guys for Best Actor if you're gonna celebrate their films so maybe they will
both be in the category that would be quite the feat for comic book movies I
think they will have a fish well a Black Panther getting a Best Picture
nomination was huge but and will the Academy want to repeat that level of
recognition right oh it's fascinating now also keep in
mind in 2017 they would nominate two women for Best Director Dilek we can't
have two women in this category so Greta Gerwig got nominated and petty Jenkins
for another great DC film was unfortunately left out I want to hear
your Wonder Woman hey that was a fantastic movie and I think worthy of
Oscar nominations as I said at the time but it didn't get any Justice League all
right that totally killed its momentum now I have been wondering if Q actors
can win for playing the Joker right Heath Ledger already has the Oscar maybe
that works in Robert Downey jr. favor but there is a precedent both Marlon
Brando and Robert De Niro won Oscars for playing Vito Corleone now they were in
the same trilogy you know and you know but I mean it's the same family of
movies for DC so maybe that will work right also Joker is strongly modeled
after two Scorsese films Scorsese is deeply respected in Hollywood taxi
driver for nominations and no wins but here interestingly the king of comedy
which the movies more modeled after got absolutely no nominations for Best Oscar
for the Oscars so ideally Scorsese would stop for Joker a film who was originally
attached to as an executive producer but he dropped out and in another year maybe
he would because again he's closely associated with her artistically but
he's got his all he'll battle this year with the Irishman
also starring to Nero and that was recently denied a wide release theaters
because it's a Netflix movie even after Scorsese personally tried to convince
theaters to play it anyway they said no not gonna do it
your theatrical to digital window it's too small it's only 20 days and they
would prefer it to be 70 days but Netflix refuses to do that to their
subscribers are you a Netflix subscriber would you prefer that their films were
more a competitive for award season or do you want them now that's it's a it's
a real Sophie's Choice um I'd be curious how you feel I'm not quite sure how I
feel personally also we have to see how Joker does at the box office I think
either way could be good or bad for it's Oscar hopes right maybe on the one hand
the audience I'm the Oscars feel it has a fan base behind it or maybe they feel
it already has its cash so it'll be fine right or if it doesn't do well they
could be like oh well you know endgame got the cash let's give Joker the gold
it's you know you have to really see how public opinion comes together but I
suspect that Warner Brothers end of the day would rather have that green box
office cash then Awards gold a star is born also rated R and similarly low
budget pulled in over 400 million worldwide an incredible rate of return
and wolf of Wall Street the recent r-rated Scorsese film for
Paramount is another good comp and also fascinatingly came in at around 400
million worldwide is that what we're looking at for Joker I feel this is a
comic book movie Joker could do Deadpool level box-office another
r-rated film so what do you think what do you think not just as a fan but is if
you were an Academy member you know put your fandom aside and think about what
you would do with this Sophie's Choice of your own Joker or Avengers end game
oh it's like really is a Sophie's Choice um I haven't seen Joker but I do think
that what Robert Downey jr. accomplished was extraordinary although I do feel
what joaquin phoenix is doing is also just amazing so maybe they should both
be nominated but that's 2 out of 5 nominations for comic book movies I
don't know if they I don't know if Hollywood wants to go there it's like to
fast they're gonna be made uncomfortable all right
so well though heck of a lot of people would tune in so first there's that
alright and also they are kind of owned by ABC de-facto which is Disney because
the airs on their network and they make a lot of the decisions so you would hate
to think that would be a factor but if there's a conspiracy theorist in you
there you might think it might somewhat come into play oh that would be so bad
you know all my goodness then the Academy couldn't really shake their head
their head at anyone else cuz there would be also compromised but as I told
you when you take a step back it's fascinating so what do you think again
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