And I think once you see gold starting to have that bull run, silver
will also start it as well.
Definitely still think we're in a bear Market.
I mean the longer term trend on the S&P, 500 is still fully intact.
Like you mentioned the july/august.
Hi, we still haven't even come up to close to testing that and SP Y,
which is basically the S&P 500.
And what you can see is the long-term downtrend from the high on, the
spiders is still fully intact and we still have a decent distance to
go.
So for me, as long as we're below that line, the downtrend or the bear
Market is fully intact.
One of the interesting things you can see here is that if you take the
20/20 low and connect it to this pivot, Lo look at how we broke that
line.
But now we're coming back and kind of testing that area with
resistance.
So it's a great day on the markets.
I think, I think today, the it's a sigh of a row of relief for the
markets.
And what I mean by that is, you know, we saw metas earnings, we saw
Google, we saw Microsoft, I mean it was just blood bats everywhere.
Then yesterday after the Bell, we got Amazon.
And that was a cat.
Task 4 feet and then Apple reported and it was going down and then It
reversed.
And now it's having a big up day.
And everyone's like, oh thank goodness.
Like we just avoided a major accident or collapse in the stock market.
Let's just look at the S&P 500.
So number one, look at this, Monumental run since 2009 when the Fed
was printing money look at the vertical nature of the market, right?
Just unbelievable.
Like even if you go back to the.com period here,
Still was nothing like we experienced in the last really 13 years.
Now, if you want to look at a chart, that's very similar in start and
see what happened.
Take a look at the ewz which is the Brazilian stock market.
So in 2002, the Brazilian stock market had a very similar vertical
move to 2008 and then look at what's happened.
We have never gone back, even close to those all-time highs, and it's
been 14 years.
And so I do worry that this
This is the market of the future for the S&P 500 where we do have many
bull markets in the mix.
But ultimately it's going to be a long period of digestion of this.
As long as the feds not printing, the market has to come to grips,
that it has to figure things out on its own and like a kid that gets
spoiled.
I have a hard time believing that the economy is going to be able to
figure it out.
Now, having said that, like you said, where am I putting money to
work?
So I'm a big believer, there's always wear places to make money.
So I mean number,
One.
I'll think gold is the place to go right now Gold's had this beautiful
pull back, its kind of trading down today pretty decently.
But if you look at the larger picture, gold is doing exactly what it
did during the 70s before a run from about $100 an ounce to a thousand
dollars an ounce.
Now, I don't think you're going to see a 10x on gold, but I think
5x or 3x is very, very possible.
So I think gold is a place to go where you'll see amazing returns in
this kind of otherwise - investor market.
And then I also think like the ewz like we just talked about, you
know, if you look at this now it hasn't broken out yet.
But if you look at this, it is, it is kind of coiling, right?
This is what I would refer to as a spring that's coiling, and if it
can break Above This, 3637 dollar level, that would be a huge
opportunity with a lot of upside.
So that's a place.
And then, if you look at other value plays, like I love stocks that
everyone hates and there's no better stock that everyone hates right
there, Then meta.
So Meta.
Again, everyone's saying always a sucker Berg, he's crazy spending way
too much on the metaverse.
What if he actually has a plan here and the metaverse become something
major, and basically, Facebook has built it or meta has built it.
This at these valuation levels offers to me, at least a low-risk
high-reward opportunity, even
Longer-term bear market.
So there's always places to go, right?
I think that's the beauty of it.
Is that, you know, you can always find Opportunities and I think this
is a good example of it.
So number one, you have to understand with gold is that it's traded in
u.s.
dollars.
So as the dollar has rallied, gold automatically will come down,
right?
So the key to kind of gauge the analysis on gold, and how is gold
performing is to say, okay, how much has the dollar rallied in 2022?
And the answer is about 20 percent.
Well, how much
Is gold down in 2022, about seven percent.
So in a perfect world gold should be down equal to what the dollar is
up.
So the fact that it's only down seven percent is actually shown you
accumulation.
So that's a very big positive for me on the longer term here on gold.
It tells me smart money is buying in.
And then also, if you look at this chart, you had this nice little
double top up here.
But really what you're doing is you're consolidating inside of this
bigger move.
So I do think in a worst-case scenario, you come down to about.
Fifteen hundred and fifty bucks.
But again, for me as soon as you see the FED saying, we're going to
have elevated inflation for a longer period of time, but we can't
print and the economy is going to go south and all this other stuff.
I think that's where gold actually starts to really outperform.
If you look at the late 70s into the 80s, it was towards the end of
the period where gold really took off.
So, I think you're in that kind of scenario.
Yeah, and I see that 1350.
Like, that's basically taking these pivots here, right here, with
these pivots.
But I'm looking at this level here and then also if you're looking at
it, in terms of a retrace this would be about a 618 Fibonacci
retracement from down here to these highs.
So that's kind of a standard pull back and it's just hard for me to
imagine that that, you know, if you look at the FED going to.
So number one, we're getting very close to a pivot where at least
they're not hiking anymore.
Maybe they're at zero hikes, but not lowering.
But that alone should cap the dollar from going up dramatically.
And as soon as you see a pullback in the dollar,
That'll also cushion bold and starts a lift gold up.
So for me 1550s my low end with the fibs and different retraces but
again you know we all know, I could be wrong, but that again is it's
basically the suffice it to say that on the way down here, I'm a
buyer.
I'm continuing to accumulate gold on the long side before I touch on
Silver, I think you're 100%, right?
Is you have to look at it in terms of assets and risks, right?
So I do see the stock market.
The S&P has it has down another 25% in 2023.
I still think Bitcoin hasn't bottomed yet.
I think twelve.
Thirteen thousand.
Maybe sub 10,000 before that bottoms out fully.
So if you look at where to put money where your risk reward make sense
and where you're somewhat protected, gold definitely does kind of
piqued my interest and it has got me involved here.
Now, if we look at Silver, let's take a look at Silver.
So silver continues to kind of chop sideways here.
You have this little bit of a wedge pattern formation.
You can see you can connect the lows connect the highs.
It's having a little bit of a down day.
I continue to be a very long-term Bowl on Silver, but I do think we
have to recognize that if the economy is going to slip into a bad
recession, that demand for, you know, electric cars may drop a little
bit in the near term other things like that may hamper silver.
So silver there's a ton of support here but there's also a longer-term
trend line where if we did see that worse kind of recession then
you're looking at potentially heading down towards this longer-term
trend line here.
Which is around $15.50, we'll call it.
So there is a little bit more risk in silver.
The positive is longer-term, I still think it eventually breaks out of
this longer term wedge, and it will outperform gold.
We know that historically.
It tends to outperform Gold percentage-wise.
It's just a little bit more risk in the near term here.
Yeah.
So I think I think we're in this period.
This next like let's say couple month period where we could still see
gold come down maybe to 1550.
Maybe some people have said
Yourself.
So I think if silver is going to dump out it would be during that
period.
I think once you see gold starting to have that bull run, silver will
also start it as well.
So I think that the risk in silver is in the near term here over the
next.
Let's say three to six months as it is in Gold versus if you go a year
out that's where both both I see starting to Rally substantially.