geoff: The end of title 42 is
just one of the high-stakes
issues on the agenda in
Washington this week.
The other is the ongoing
showdown over raising the debt
ceiling.
For analysis of both, we turn to
our politics Monday team.
Amy Walter of the cook political
report with Amy Walter.
And Tamara Keith of NPR.
Welcome to you both.
This is expected to be a
consequential week.
Title 42 is expected to expire
on Thursday.
The trump era policy that says
you can turn migrants away, even
if they are seeking asylum here
the number of attempted
crossings is expected to swell.
The white house says they are
prepared, but they need more
resources.
They need more help from
congress.
How is the white house preparing
for this?
Beyond that, setting
expectations with the American
people about what is to come?
Tamara: Biden administration is
pushing out a message that the
border is not open.
As the mayor said, they are
competing against human
smugglers who have been
delivering a message for months
that it is open season as title
42 goes away.
They are expecting that it will
be challenging.
That it will be difficult.
That is why they are sending
more national guards to the
border area to assist the border
patrol.
Politically, it is a real
challenge.
Though, political views are so
baked in, that it is not clear
exactly how this will turn out.
Republicans are expecting this
to be that.
They have been saying it is
going to be bad.
They are going to continue to
push a narrative that this is
out of control.
Democrats polling would indicate
that immigration is not a top
issue or concern for them.
Certainly the sort of
immigration issue.
The challenge is a chaos is not
great.
Chaos is not great politically
for the person in the white
house.
Whether they can make this
orderly or not is a very big
open question.
And certainly someone like
Kyrsten Sinema, the senator from
Arizona, is raising concern they
are not ready.
Geoff: We have that sound, if we
can play it now.
I will ask a question on the
others.
>> Two years to prepare for this
and did not do so.
And our state is going to bear
the brunt.
And migrants will be in crisis
as soon as next week.
It will be a humanitarian
crisis, because we are not
prepared.
Geoff: How does the white house
confront but?
It used to be a partisan split.
Not really among Democrats in
border states or an independent
in a border state.
Amy: Cam is right.
This is a polarizing issue.
Not just in congress but among
voters, in terms of the priority
that immigration plays, in their
view, in their vote.
Republican saying this is a top
priority.
Democrats, not as big of a
priority, unless you are in a
border state.
The governor of the state of
Arizona, also a Democrat, not
quite as pointed as the senator,
but basically said we need more
help.
We know there are democratic
mayors around the country
saying, we need federal help.
That is what most of these folks
are not saying, the federal
government needs to give us more
money to be able to prepare for
this.
I do agree, we don't know if
this issue is going to transcend
this deep divide.
Is this going to turn into what
senator cinema says is an
absolute abject humanitarian
disaster?
Is it a few days where it looks
chaotic but it somehow becomes
less chaotic?
?
Are we going to potentially see
violence or other events
happening?
That is the bigger question
about whether we can see this
politically transcending what we
know have been pretty hard and
track -- hard and fast
traditional opinions.
Arizona is not just a border
state.
It is a swing state.
Geoff: How does the Biden
campaign keep this from becoming
a competency issue?
Tamara: It is an open question.
And one other question I have
that I don't have an answer to
is, will the president of the
United States step forward and
deliver this message that the
border is not open?
Or is he going to leave it to
the homeland security secretary
-- secretary focused on the debt
ceiling, anything else, and not
but the white house stamp on
this?
I think the fact that we have
not seen the president out there
is probably an indication that
they don't know how this is
going to turn out, and they
don't know whether they want the
president's fingerprints on it
or not.
Geoff: Let's talk about the new
ABC news poll which finds
president Biden's approval
rating slipping to a new low.
More Americans than not doubt
his mental acuity.
.
'S support against leading GOP
challengers is far shakier than
four years ago.
Is this: An outlier or does the
white house have reason to be
concerned?
Or are both of things true?
Amy: They have reason to be
concerned regardless of what
this pulse us.
I think what we are seeing in
all of the polling, including
that marist poll, is the
president's overall approval
rating is in a bad place.
Whether it is 41% or 39% in this
pull.
This is not where you want to be
as an incumbent going into
reelection.
Traditionally, a job approval
rating is about, going into an
election, is about one to four
points to the final vote the
incumbent gets.
Except what we are also seeing,
this poll did not show it, but
we have seen in polls in 2022
and recently in 2023, people who
somewhat disapprove of Biden,
included in that significant
group of people who say I don't
think he is doing a good job,
are actually voting for Biden or
Democrats.
There are people out there who
are not particularly thrilled in
the job the president is doing.
This is what Republicans are
counting on.
That the option of Donald Trump
is so problematic for these
voters who dislike the job the
president is doing, that they
are willing to support somebody
who they don't think is doing a
particularly good job.
However, and this is where
Democrats do get worried, does
it still work?
It worked and 2022.
Will it work in 2024?
What if trump is not the
nominee?
That is a print story.
Our voters -- are voters still
going to turn out?
That has been the message from
Democrats.
You have to turn out, it is an
existential crisis.
If not, Donald Trump is going to
be back in the white house.
That has been very mobilizing.
It has been a constant drumbeat
now.
Geoff: As president Biden always
says, don't compare me to the
almighty, compare me to the
alternative.
Let's talk about the debt
ceiling.
President Biden is set to meet
with the top four congressional
people.
They have not met in their
current capacities in person,
this is their first time meeting
in person to talk about the
debt.
How is this expected to go?
Tamara: According to Kareem John
Pierre, don't call this a debt
ceiling negotiation.
This is not an negotiation over
the debt ceiling.
.
At is the crisis at hand.
Geoff: Three weeks ago it --
three weeks away from going off
the cliff.
Tamara: This newness it may
happen, the cliff may be June 1
or later.
There is no vibe from anyone
that it is currently in a crisis
phase or they can see said cliff
in the distance.
There is not a sense of urgency.
This meeting, based on the white
house telling, based on
congressional telling, will be
people talking about their
position, which has been well
known for months.
The chance of a breakthrough
seems pretty low.
And a real challenge here is
usually with one of the sorts of
crises, there -- you can see a
face-saving option.
Uli, there is a face-saving
option, they will come to it
eventually, they have to do the
plumage and P caulking and all
of that.
It is not clear what the
face-saving option is,
particularly given that Kevin
Mccarthy has such narrow control
over the house and senate.
It is just not clear how they
get out of it yet.
Geoff: Both sides want to find a
way to declare victory.
We are talking about the
politics of this.
The economics are a different
conversation.
Amy: That is the point.
Nobody wins in this fight.
Politically, if we don't go off
a cliff, if we don't default on
the debt, both sides could come
out and say, we got what we
want.
That's fine.
I don't know that voters are
particularly interested in
giving someone the winner tag
and someone the loser tag.
Right now, it looks bad for
everybody involved.
And you can see this exhaustion
that this game and ship, the
kabuki of it, but with the real
threat anchoring, is the kind of
thing that voters say, this is
why we check out from politics?
It is the only way, the minority
has leverage to do a lot of the
stuff they want to do.
But obviously, it comes with a
big price.
Geoff: To give our viewers a
sense, we have a sound that
characterizes what you both are
talking about.
>> We're not going to give any
politicians, including the
president, a blank check to
continue to bankrupt the
country.
>> We've been waiting for months
for the Republicans to
articulate their position.
They didn't produce a budget.
What they did was produce a
ransom note.
Geoff: They can only go up from
here, right?
>> This is this phase.
I think a lot of people may
think this is just a regular old
budget crisis, a fight where the
government might shut down and
we will talk about the lights
being turned off.
This is different.
The stakes are higher with a
potential debt default.
The global economic stakes are
higher.
At the moment, the rhetoric is
very much similar to what you
see ahead of a regular budget
fight.
Geoff: Five seconds left.
>> Concur.
Geoff: Very good.
Amy Walter, tear matter -- and
Tamara Keith, great to see you,
as always.
>> Thank you.
♪♪