Hey, good Saturday afternoon everybody.
I'm K show you 11 meteorologist Tim Pandages.
We're recording this around
3:30 in the afternoon.
Want to give you an update?
There is now a severe thunderstorm watch
up for our far northern cities and counties
right through 10:00 o'clock ton.
I do however expect this to
likely be expanded a little bit
farther S perhaps as far South.
As the I-10 corridor you notice
it stretches all the way to the
north up to Dallas and all the
way up 5969 almost to Shrevepor.
So keep that in mind.
The severe threat is off to the
north earlier and then will drie
its way southwards as we approah
sunset in the first half of the
overnight out there right now.
There are a few storms non sevee
developing at the moment in
northwestern portions of Harris County,
out by Fairbanks in between prey
much bookending 290 off to the h
and off to the South north of I.
There again no lightning or Thur
there but some heavier down.
Course,
and we'll see how these kind of evolve
over the next half an hour to an hour.
Check out visible satellite imay
though there's a lot going on.
We've got an active cue field
developing over Southeast Texas
and those will likely develop io
at least a few thunderstorms as
we go through the next few hour.
But really take note of the
feature off to the north.
Those are collapsing thundersto,
the outflow boundary and
from those racing southwards.
And that will be what helps
to initiate more widespread,
stronger to potentially severe storms.
As we go through later today,
storm fuel,
we've already got the spin in te
atmosphere with winds aloft comg
out of the West and winds at the
surface coming in out of the So.
And that's already adding that
pivot in the atmosphere.
For any storms that do develop,
it will help them start to spind
storm fuel really start to drop.
After the sun goes down,
which is why this next point
I want to make with you is the
difference in our computer modes
in the arrival of the storms.
We'll start things off here witr
short range. It's called the H triple.
Our model. Here we are at 7:00.
O'clock, still storm free.
Is this right?
We'll see as we go towards 9:00.
O'clock.
Here's the leading edge of that
stronger storm.
A line off to the north of Huntsville.
Sun is down at this point.
Keep that in mind too.
Then as it drives S,
it starts to weaken a little
bit and become more fragmented.
Still the potential of some
rotating super cells well off to
the north and east of downtown d
those shoot on through Liberty
County and steer clear of Houst.
We're losing the daytime heatin.
We're losing that storm fuel.
Here we are in the middle of the night,
likely still some showers
and downpours around.
However, On the contrary
we look at another model.
This is the graph model
here and this shows an.
Arrival time earlier meaning the
storms can take advantage of the
storm fuel present at this time.
7:00 o'clock there is our line f
storms already into the Huntsvie
area by 9:00 o'clock that's movg
on into northern Harris County,
moving into downtown Houston and
points east and northeast of th.
And then notice there are a few
more cells that develop here up
to around 11:00 o'clock before
things start to quiet down ther.
So the graph model a little bit earlier,
more intense line of storms,
the H Triple R is a little.
A little bit later,
still likely some intense storme
becoming fragmented and more likely off
to the east and northeast of downtown.
Now let's check things out for
the severe threats for tonight.
Still damaging winds.
There's the outlier potential of
75 mile per hour wind gusts in
some of these stronger cells,
so that'll be the big problem.
Bring in any loose items out in
your yard that can become airbo.
Bring them indoors.
Certainly that's a good idea.
Large hail is also a potential.
Here we're talking diameter of an inch
or greater that would be damaging Hail.
Tornadoes is a nonzero threat,
so keep that in mind too.
It is our lowest threat,
but it is still a possibility.
And with some of these slower moving cells,
with the amount of moisture in
the atmosphere and the amount of
rain that will come with them,
123 inch an hour rainfall rates.
Certainly some St.
flooding potentially if these
storms hit those vulnerable are.
We've been cooking out there so far today.
Temperatures are well up into the 90s.
Factor in the dew points,
that's some of that storm fuel
and this is what it feels like,
feels like 107 degrees out of
Katy within the hour.
So we're going to watch this
situation as it evolves through
the rest of the afternoon.
We'll see again on the digital e
around 6:00 o'clock and at 10:00 o'clock.
It'll be myself and meteorologit
Kim Castro with an update on
the storms that will likely be
moving through at that time.
It's a.