>>> WELCOME BACK. AS WE SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHOW WITH ONE DAY TO GO
WE’VE GOT SOME POLLING PU
PECULIARITIES.
PECULIARITIES. ON THE QUESTION OF WHICH PARTY
SHOULD CONTROL CONGRESS, IT
MEANS REPUBLICANS HAVE ACTUALLY
GAINED SOME GROUND IN THE LAST
TWO WEEKS.
TWO WEEKS. VOTER ENTHUSIASM WHICH WAS A BIG
EDGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS IS
BASICALLY TIED FOR THE TWO
PARTIES.
PARTIES. BOTTOM LINE IS IT IS THROUGH THE
ROOF.
ROOF. THAT SAID, OUR FINAL NBC NEWS
MARIST POLLS ENFLORIDA AND
MISSOURI PAINTING A ROSIER
OUTLOOK FOR DEMOCRATS THAN "THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL."
SO WHAT’S GOING ON?
WE START WITH A LIST OF PEOPLE
WHO VOTED BEFORE IN THE NBC NEWS
STATE MARIST POLLING CONTACTS
PEOPLE AT RANDOM.
IT’S POSSIBLE SWEEPING UP NEW
VOTERS OR BEING A LITTLE
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE NEW VOTERS
THAT SHOW UP.
AND WE DON’T KNOW WHICH GROUP IS
GOING TO SHOW UP TOMORROW.
THE TRADITIONAL VOTERS THAT SHOW
UP ALL THE TIME AND OR THE NEW
VOTERS THAT COULD BE BREAKING
OUR POLLING ASSUMPTIONS.
IT’S UNPRECEDENTED IN THIS ONE,
SO I’M HAPPY TO BE AT A PLACE
WHERE I HAVE THE LUXURY OF DOING
IT ALL.
IT ALL. I’M JOINED BY OUR BIPARTISAN
POLLING TEAM.
POLLING TEAM. OUR DEMOCRATIC POLLER AND OUR
REPUBLICAN POLLSTER.
REPUBLICAN POLLSTER. YOUR OWN CLIENTS HAVE COME TO
YOU AND HAVE SAID WHAT SHOULD I
BELIEVE, THE NATIONAL NOT
DYNAMICS OR WHAT I THINK I’M
SEEING IN THE STATE.
FRED, YOU FIRST.
>> WELL, HOW ABOUT I GIVE YOU
THE CLASSIC POLLSTER ANSWER
WHICH IS BOTH.
IT DOES SHOW THAT THE PLAYING
FIELD IS TILTED TO DEMOCRATS.
THE 59% OF VOTERS WHO WANT A
CHANGE IN DIRECTION FROM DONALD
TRUMP, YOU KNOW, MORE AMERICANS
WANTING TO SEND A SIGNAL OF
OPPOSITION TO DONALD TRUMP THAN
SUPPORT.
SUPPORT. SO THAT’S A NATIONAL CONTEXT.
AS YOU KNOW, CHUCK, AND YOU’VE
SAID MANY TIMES, THESE ARE 435
INDIVIDUAL HOUSE RACES, 33
INDIVIDUAL SENATE RACES,
GOVERNOR’S RACES.
GOVERNOR’S RACES. SO I THINK BELIEVE THE NATIONAL
NUMBERS IN TERMS OF THE BROAD
DYNAMICS, BUT REALLY THIS IS
GOING TO BE A STATE BY STATE,
CITY BY CITY ELECTION.
>> BILL, HOW DO YOU ANSWER THE
QUESTION THAT SAYS, OKAY, WE’RE
HAVING A RECORD BREAKING
TURNOUT?
TURNOUT? I MEAN BEYOND NUMBERS I DON’T
THINK -- PUT IT THIS WAY, I’M
ACTUALLY GOING TO GET RID OF THE
A-WORD TOMORROW NIGHT, APATHY,
BECAUSE THERE ISN’T GOING TO BE
ANY.
ANY. MAYBE IN WYOMING.
HOW DO NEW VOTERS MAKE IT INTO
OUR LIKELY VOTER MODEL?
>> EASILY.
>> EASILY. WE INTERVIEWED EVERY REGISTERED
VOTER IN THE COUNTRY, CHUCK.
AND OUR LIKELY VOTER MODEL LOOKS
AT THE HISTORY BUT IF IN FACT
THEY HAVE AN UNUSUAL LEVEL OF
INTEREST, SO THERE’S NO
DIFFERENCE.
DIFFERENCE. WE ARE LOOKING AT EVERY VOTER IN
THE COUNTRY AND LIKELY VOTERS
CAN BE A COMBINATION OF PREVIOUS
VOTE HISTORY AND VERY UNIQUE
LEVELS OF INTEREST.
AND SO THERE’S NO ONE WE’RE
MISSING IN THE NBC WALL STREET
JOURNAL SURVEY.
JOURNAL SURVEY. >> ALL RIGHT, LET’S DIG INTO OUR
POLL HERE A LITTLE BIT, AND DO
SOMETHING THAT WE -- WHICH IS
LOOKING AT THE PRESIDENT’S JOB
RATING AND THE GENERIC BALLOT
AMONG THE 100 SEATS THAT WERE --
THAT WE DECIDED ARE IN THE
BATTLE GROUND.
BATTLE GROUND. THE PRESIDENT’S JOB RATING IN
THESE LEAN OR TOSS UP SEATS FROM
THE COOK REPORT IS 49-49, RIGHT
DOWN THE MIDDLE.
AND THE GENERIC BATTLE HAS
DEMOCRATS PLUS 3.
THESE ARE ALL MOSTLY REPUBLICAN
DISTRICTS.
DISTRICTS. SO A 49-49 JOB RATING, DOES THAT
GIVE YOU CONFIDENCE DEMOCRATS
ARE GOING DO PICK UP A BUNCH OF
THESE, OR DOES THAT MAKE YOU
NERVOUS?
NERVOUS? >> LOOK, I THINK IF THESE ARE
THE CLASSIC TOSS UP SEATS, AND
AS YOU SAID, CHUCK, MOST OF
THEM, MORE OF THEM ARE
REPUBLICAN MORE THAN DEMOCRATIC,
I THINK HAVING THE PRESIDENT’S
JOB RATING A TICK BELOW 50%, BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY HAVING
DEMOCRATS WITH A 3 POINT EDGE
THAT SAYS, LOOK, IN WHAT COULD
BE A LOT OF CLOSE ELECTIONS,
THOSE NUMBERS WOULD TELL ME I
THINK THE WIN IS AT THE BACK
OFDOMES HEADING
OFDOMES HEADING OFDOMES
OFDOMES OFDOMES OF DEMOCRATS HEADING
INTO TOMORROW.
INTO TOMORROW. >> BILL, YOU HAVE SAID YOU WANT
TO KNOW PRESIDENTIAL JOB
APPROVAL PRETTY MUCH MORE THAN
ANY OTHER NUMBER WHETHER LOOK AT
STATE OR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
EXPLAIN WHY THAT NUMBER IS SO
IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTANDING A
MID-TERM?
MID-TERM? >> WELL, BECAUSE ABOUT 94% OF
PEOPLE WHO APPROVE OF THE
PRESIDENT SAY THEY VOTE
REPUBLICAN.
REPUBLICAN. 94% OF THE PEOPLE WHO OPPOSE
HIM, VOTE AGAINST HIM.
FOR REPUBLICANS TO HAVE ANY
SERIOUS SHOT IN THIS ELECTION --
AND WE HAVE TRUMP AT 46% IN OUR
POLL.
POLL. BY THE WAY, THAT’S HIGHER THAN
ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN THE
PREVIOUS FOUR OFF-YEAR WAVES.
IF THE PRESIDENT GETS AT 48% IN
THE EXIT POLL TOMORROW, THIS
BECOMES A VERY COMPETITIVE POLL
IN THE COUNTRY, THAT’S POSSIBLE.
BECAUSE OF THOSE 95% ON BOTH
SIDES, IT’S HIS JOB APPROVAL
THAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE.
REPUBLICAN WON THOSE SWING SEATS
BY 14 POINTS IN 2014.
THEY ONLY WON THEM BY 3 POINTS
TWO YEARS AGO.
IF WE’RE A MARGIN OF ERROR IT’S
NOT SOME UNIQUE I’VE NEVER SEEN
THIS BEFORE.
THIS BEFORE. REPUBLICANS ONLY CARRIED THOSE
POINTS BY 2 POINTS TWO YEARS
AGO.
AGO. >> WHAT’S THE BIGGEST WARNING
SIGN-IN OUR POLL TO THE
DEMOCRATS, FRED, IN YOUR
OPINION, AND I WANT TO ASK YOU
SORT OF THE MIRROR IMAGE
QUESTION, BILL, ON THE OTHER
SIDE.
SIDE. >> I GUESS THE WARNING SIGN
WOULD BE ARE PRESIDENT TRUMP’S
JOB RATING, AND AS BILL SAID, IS
IT GOING TO BE HIGHER THAN 46%
ON THE EXIT POLLS?
AND A LOT OF THESE KEY SENATE
RACES NOT JUST IN ’18 BUT IN
PAST MID-TERMS THE PRESIDENTIAL
APPROVALING
APPROVALING APPROVAL RATING IS IN THE STATE,
IF YOU’RE PRO-TRUMP YOU VOTE
REPUBLICAN.
REPUBLICAN. IF YOU’RE ANTI-TRUMP, YOU VOTE
FOR THE DEMOCRAT.
I THINK AS A DEMOCRATIC
POLLSTER, THAT NUMBER PLUS ALSO
THE I.D. SPREAD BETWEEN DEMOCRAT
AND REPUBLICAN, THOSE ARE THE
NUMBERS I’LL BE WATCHING.
>> THE MISSOURI POLL HAD THE
PRESIDENT’S JOB RATING AT 50%.
WHEN I FIRST SAW THAT I WENT OH,
THAT’S GOOD NEWS FOR HOLLY.
BUT THEN IT HAS McCASKILL UP AND
I THOUGHT OH, THAT’S WHY IT’S A
TOSS UP RACE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK REPUBLICANS
SHOULD BE STARING AT IN THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL POLL?
>> IT’S ALL GEOGRAPHY.
WE’RE RUNNING IN TOO MANY OPEN
SEATS AS REPUBLICANS AND TOO
MANY SEATS HEKTILLARY CLINTON
CARRIED.
CARRIED. AND YOU WERE EXACTLY CORRECT,
PEOPLE DON’T GET IT.
A WAVE IS NOT SOME MASSIVE
MARGIN.
MARGIN. IT’S BECAUSE WHITE COLLEGE
EDUCATED WOMEN VOTED LARGE
NUMBERS, THEY’RE VOTING VERY
DEMOCRAT.
DEMOCRAT. AND ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU START
LOSING RACES BY A POINT OR TWO
POINTS AND THEY’RE INCREDIBLY
NARROW BUT THEY TIP TO ONE PARTY
AND YOU END UP LOSING A CHUNK OF
SEATS.
SEATS. THAT’S THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
FOR REPUBLICANS.
FOR REPUBLICANS. >> THERE’S BEEN SO MUCH EARLY
VOTING PART OF US AREN’T SURE,
OKAY, HOW MUCH VOTE GOT BANKED
IN THE KAVANAUGH HANG OVER, IF
YOU WILL, FOR THE COUNTRY.
AND HOW MUCH WAS BANKED DURING
THE VIOLENCE WEEK AND ALL OF
THIS STUFF, BUT IT’S INTERESTING
TO ME, VIRGINIA AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE, THEY DON’T HAVE SO
MUCH EARLY VOTING.
ARE THEY GOING TO GO TO HOW
THINGS MOVED LATE, FRED?
>> WE’VE HAD THESE DISCUSSIONS
BEFORE.
BEFORE. IN 2016 THE LATE VOTING STATES
LIKE PENNSYLVANIA, THEY BROKE
LATE TOWARDS TRUMP, TOLD YOU A
LOT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED LATE.
I THINK YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE
HEAD, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MISSOURI, THEY DO IT THE
OLD-FASHIONED WAY, THEY VOTE THE
ELECTION DAY.
ELECTION DAY. >> WEST VIRGINIA IS AN
INTERESTING STATE TO ME.
TRUMP CARRIED IT BY MASSIVE
MARGINS.
MARGINS. I’M NOT SURE THE REPUBLICANS ARE
GOING TO WIN, BUT THEY ALSO
VOTE.
VOTE. THEY’RE AN INCREDIBLY TRUMP
STATE AND AND HOW CLOSE THAT
REPUBLICAN IS GOING TO GET IS
ANOTHER WAY OF MEASURING.
>> YOU GUYS GOT TO HURRY-UP, GET