With Russia hogging all the negative press lately you may have missed Chinese President
Xi Jinping's adamant proclamation that Taiwan will be reunited with the mainland, and he
is not ruling out military force to accomplish this goal.
But with the vast majority of Taiwanese citizens wanting nothing to do with mainland Communist
China, and American President Joe Biden promising that the US would come to Taiwan's aid, World
War III is looking more likely- and it won't be starting in Europe.
How is China going to defeat the US and it's allies, and more importantly, why does Taiwan
matter so much that the US is willing to fight to keep it free and independent?
China wants Taiwan, and the US wants Taiwan to remain free.
Both sides have their various reasons, but there are some significant overlaps.
For China, Taiwan is both a matter of national prestige and a national defense priority.
The island is home to the Chinese nationalists who fled after losing the war against the
Communists after World War II, and given the difficulty of an invasion- plus the support
of the United States- reunifying this breakaway province by force has not been an option for
China.
It's only recently with China's vast modernization of its military and steadily expanding amphibious
assault capabilities that the dream of taking over Taiwan is approaching fruition.
But as long as Taiwan remains fiercely independent and refuses to bow to Beijing, China cannot
be taken seriously as a global military power.
After all, why should anyone fear your military when it can't even pacify an island sitting
right off your own shores?
For the Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan represents an existential threat though.
The nation began as a dictatorship, but gradually became a liberal and open democracy.
Today it's amongst the most successful democracies in the world- and that's a big problem for
the CCP.
As long as Taiwan remains independent it remains a symbol for the Chinese people of what life
could be like for them if they were no longer under the thumb of the CCP.
After the extreme measures enacted by President Xi during and after Covid, disillusionment
with China's government and the very society it’s built around has skyrocketed amongst
the youth.
To many of them, the democracy lurking right off their own shore is a more appealing choice,
and as long as Taiwan remains independent it'll continue singing its siren song of democracy
to the Chinese people.
However, there are two very real and very significant strategic reasons for China to
want to take Taiwan back- and for the US to want it to remain independent.
First is a western strategy known as the 'first island chain'.
This is a chain of pro-western, friendly nations that ring the shores of China and Russia both.
During the Cold War it acted as a physical barrier to communist navies in case of war,
who would be hemmed in and unable to operate in open waters without being destroyed attempting
to break to the open sea.
The first island chain also allows friendly navies to operate very close to enemy shores
by having resupply and repair facilities readily available, and not relying on far-flung bases
which would limit loiter time for friendly ships and aircraft.
Today the first island chain strategy no longer hems in the Soviet Union and its allies, and
instead acts as a barrier to Chinese expansionism.
China has attempted to break the first island chain by illegally building artificial islands
in the South China Sea, and while the threat they pose is significant, it still doesn't
allow the Chinese navy to break the defenses of the first island chain completely.
And it doesn't allow them to push hostile navies far enough away that Chinese shipping
can continue to keep the nation supplied with the vital petroleum and natural gas it needs.
Another strategic reason to want reunification with Taiwan could potentially impact the entire
world though.
Today Taiwan is the world's largest manufacturer of computer chips and semiconductors, wielding
such significant clout that its embargo of Russia has all but crippled the nation's ability
to build modern weapons.
Taiwan's contribution to the global technology market is so significant, that as the Chinese
threat over the island grows, the United States has passed emergency funding for computer
chip manufacturing plants to be built inside of America once more.
If China were to seize Taiwan, it would in effect be in control of nearly all of the
world's supply of advanced electronic components, and be able to threaten embargos to nations
that don't tow the CCP's line.
A nation would have a simple choice: have its economy crippled or do as President Xi
says.
So how can China achieve its goals, even if it means launching World War III, and come
out on top?
China has already prepared extensively for conflict against the superior US Navy, and
has done a really good job of it too.
Its surface combat ships are still no match for American vessels, with China having approximately
2/3rds the total battle force missiles that the US Navy has.
It's air force is similarly outclassed by the US Air Force, which not only outnumbers
China's but has far better capabilities in all but one department: long-range air to
air missiles, where the Chinese PL-15 enjoys a significant advantage over the American
AIM-120 in terms of range.
However, the US is fast-tracking an upgrade called the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical
Missile to not just close this gap, but exceed it once more.
US air and naval power won't matter though if it can't bring all that might close to
Chinese shores, which is why China has invested heavily into developing a strategy known as
anti-access/area-denial, or A2/AD.
The goal is simple: keep American ships and special mission aircraft such as AWACS and
tankers away from Chinese shores so the People's Liberation Navy can operate with impunity.
At the core of this strategy is the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, or PLARF.
PLARF may sound like something you do after a bad burrito, but it’s the gravest threat
the US Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War- and it might be good enough to keep
US ships out of the western Pacific for good.
A ballistic missile force, this branch of the Chinese military is dedicated to China's
vast stockpile of both nuclear and non-nuclear ballistic missiles.
China was never subject to the intermediate range force treaty, or INF, and thus unlike
the Soviet Union and the US, China developed an extensive stockpile of conventional ballistic
missiles.
Today, China fields about 1400 ballistic missiles alongside hundreds of cruise missiles.
Most of these are older, shorter range missiles which we could expect to see deployed against
Taiwanese infrastructure, but hundreds have ranges capable of hitting US bases in Japan
and South Korea.
A small, but unknown number can even hit the all-important US base in Guam.
The PLARF would be critical in the opening days of World War III.
Both the US and China hold serious counter-force power, and the advantage would go to whoever
fires first.
A war between the two powers would almost certainly be a 'bolt out of the blue' attack,
an unexpected first strike using hundreds of ballistic missiles.
The targets would be US bases in the region, with a priority target being Guam.
However this comes with a certain risk, as striking US bases in Japan and South Korea
would threaten dragging the two nations into the conflict.
South Korea may be disinclined to join the conflict out of fear of North Korea taking
advantage of the situation- in fact, for China to win, it would be in its best interest to
precede a war in the Pacific with ramped up antics from North Korea.
Enough to rattle South Korea without actually crossing the line over into war.
Fears of North Korean aggression would likely be enough to prevent South Korea from doing
anything other than voicing public support for its American allies.
Japan would be a different story.
The two nations are famous rivals, and there's still a lot of bad blood between China and
Japan.
What's more, Japan agrees with the US that China presents a threat to democracies around
the world.
Losing a fellow democracy like Taiwan to China could represent a larger global shift towards
authoritarianism.
China being the dominant regional power is also greatly disadvantageous to Japan, who's
all-important trade routes all pass by close enough to China to be intercepted by its navy
should Taiwan fall and the first island chain be broken.
Thus it's almost a foregone conclusion that Japan would join the war anyways, no matter
what China ends up doing.
The re-writing of its constitution to allow the expeditionary deployment of its military,
bucking the self-defense pacifist ideology of the past- is proof that Japan is actively
preparing to send ships, troops, and planes to aid the US and Taiwan.
This is a serious problem for China, because Japan provides a convenient staging ground
for both US naval and air forces.
A significant number of ballistic missiles would have to be dedicated to striking Japanese
air bases and harbors in order to deny both to the US military.
Chinese military doctrine states that the PLARF is to be used in a swift, precise, and
overwhelming strike against an enemy force, and this means eliminating the greatest threat
to Chinese ambitions in the region- the United States Navy.
It's not enough to shut down US bases and air fields- America has a huge expeditionary
capability and lots of friends from where they could stage ships and planes from.
Winning the war in the Pacific means beating the US Navy black and blue.
China is counting on the US public's aversion to military casualties to win this war the
moment it starts.
To achieve this, it needs to score huge losses to the US at the onset of war in terms of
both men and material.
That's why US aircraft carrier strike groups are China's no.1 priority.
Not only do American supercarriers threaten all Chinese naval shipping, but the loss of
even a single carrier would result in the death of thousands of American sailors.
This is something China hopes it can use to 'shock and awe' the American public into not
supporting a protracted war- because China cannot win a long-term conflict against the
US.
It simply lacks the material and ability to protect its overseas trade, while it can do
nothing to threaten American global trade.
With US carriers kept at bay with ballistic missiles, and friendly air fields destroyed,
China would have a week or two to achieve its objective of capturing Taiwan.
However, China faces three critical problems in its war plans.
The first is that any invasion of Taiwan would take weeks to coordinate.
Ships would have to be re-stationed to nearby harbors, hundreds of thousands of troops would
have to be moved from the various military districts to the eastern one in preparation
of boarding.
Supplies like food, water, and medicine would have to be gathered in the millions of tons
and prepared for shipping across the strait.
Hundreds of aircraft would have to be moved to nearby air fields.
Basically, an invasion of Taiwan would be anything but a 'bolt out of the blue'.
It would be a very publicly broadcast event that would have months of warning.
The United States would use this time to gather global support for either painful political
and economic measures against China, or to build a national military coalition like it
did in Desert Storm.
In an unprecedented move, European NATO partners have been sending ships to the South Pacific
in the last six months.
These routine patrols are meant to signal one thing to China: Europe stands with the
US and against an invasion of Taiwan.
Invading Taiwan would mean taking on an international coalition, and there's no ready answer to
this daunting problem for China who enjoys few meaningful alliances, and zero who would
support it in war against what would in effect be a global force.
The second problem China faces is that though its ballistic missile force is a deadly threat
to US forces, it may not be able to effectively deter US naval operations the way China hopes
it will.
Hitting a stationary air base with a ballistic missile from thousands of miles away is relatively
easy- China has reduced the circular probability of error from a hundred to just five or ten
meters for its modern missiles.
However, hitting a fast moving warship in the middle of the ocean is a different challenge
altogether.
Ballistic missiles and other stand-off weapons need good tracking data to hit a moving target.
This means that a ship must first be discovered, properly identified, and finally fixed.
China has greatly improved both its ground-based and satellite based long-range radar capabilities,
but this type of radar can only tell you a ship is out there with an approximate distance-
accuracy of satellites however is greater, though they provide only a temporary track
as they orbit the earth.
In order to properly identify, and then provide a good track, you need much better sensor
technology and it's unknown if China can foot the bill here.
A vast investment in drones and AWACS aircraft means that China potentially has the tools
to get the job done, but these airborne assets have to face the threat of the most capable
air force in the world.
China does enjoy an advantage here because the US would have to operate aircraft at extremely
long ranges, but a decided uptick in the purchase of both air and sea drones by the US military,
as well as a new tanker drone, means that the reach of America's weapons is being steadily
and greatly increased.
Even if China can overcome the difficulties in hitting moving targets, there's still one
achille's heel it has no solution for, neither today nor in the projected future.
China depends on overseas trade for the majority of its oil and natural gas imports.
It does have two land-based connections to Russia, but one of these- the pipeline from
Kamchatka- would make an easy target for a cruise missile strike via submarine.
That would leave only one inflow of oil and natural gas in the far west, out of US reach.
This would basically be a trickle compared to China’s current fossil fuel supply, and
within weeks the nation would run out of oil altogether.
It's military could fight on for a few months at most due to strategic reserves, but its
economy would come to a crashing halt as the civilian sector becomes energy-starved.
To add insult to injury, over 60% of Chinese trade comes via the ocean, except it wouldn't
in case of war thanks to the US Navy.
Even if its ballistic missile forces are effective at keeping the US Navy at bay, ballistic missiles
can't stop the huge US attack submarine fleet.
Surface task forces could also easily choke China off at multiple traffic choke points
for maritime trade, including the Malacca Straits, the Gulf of Oman, and the Panama
Canal.
China is attempting to secure ports and airfields outside of the country so it can base forces
near these strategically important waterways, but so far has only succeeded in gaining the
use of a small base at Djibouti- only miles from a much bigger American base.
With the bulk of the world on the US’ ideological side, and the vast network of friends and
partners the US can use to leverage pressure on anyone contemplating allowing China to
build military bases on their territory, it's not predicted that China's forward-deployed
military forces will grow in any significant amount.
The Chinese navy may be the largest in the world today, but most of those ships are smaller
vessels meant to act as missile boats or harass the fishing vessels and oil exploring ships
of neighboring nations- not attempt to dislodge a US carrier strike group from a vital trade
artery.
For all its planning, there's nothing China can do about this situation in the current
or even long term, though it is steadily working at building a 'blue water navy' capable of
operations far from home shores.
It still has a significant way to go to get there however, and even then the US remains
firmly in the lead.
Now go check out How Will US Respond If China Invades Taiwan, or click this other video
instead!