IN ALASKA, FOR EXAMPLE, WHERE
THERE’S A REALLY INTERESTING
SENATE RACE RIGHT NOW, WHERE AN
INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN SENATOR
MIGHT LOSE HIS SEAT, ALASKA IS
SAYING THEY WON’T EVEN START TO
COUNT BALLOTS OTHER THAN BALLOTS
CAST ON ELECTION DAY.
SO ANY ABSENTEE BALLOTS, ANY
MAIL-IN BALLOTS, ALASKA ISN’T
GOING TO START TO COUNT THOSE
BALLOTS UNTIL A WEEK AFTER
ELECTION DAY.
IN INDIVIDUAL STATES, THERE’S NO
EXPECTATION WHATSOEVER THAT
WE’RE GOING TO HAVE QUICK
RESULTS IF THE RESULTS ARE
ANYWHERE, ANYWHERE NEAR CLOSE.
BUT THINKING ABOUT THE
PRESIDENTIAL RACE, I MEAN
MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA,
WISCONSIN, THAT TRIO OF CRUCIAL
STATES, ON ELECTION NIGHT,
EXPERTS ARE WARNING -- THEY’RE
TRYING TO SORT OF RAISE
AWARENESS OF THE FACT THAT THE
WAY THE VOTE IS GOING TO BE
COUNTED IN THOSE STATES, THE
EXPECTED PARTISAN DIVIDE BETWEEN
AN EARLY VOTE THAT’S LIKELY TO
BE HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC AND AN
ELECTION DAY VOTE THAT’S LIKELY
TO BE HEAVILY REPUBLICAN,
EXPERTS ARE WARNING THAT WHEN
PARTICULARLY LOOKING AT THE
CRUCIAL TIER OF NORTHERN
BATTLEGROUND STATES,
PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, AND
WISCONSIN, EXPERTS ARE WARNING
THAT WHEN THE FIRST RESULTS ARE
RELEASED AFTER POLLS CLOSE ON
ELECTION NIGHT FROM THOSE
STATES, THOSE STATES ARE LIKELY
TO LOOK BETTER FOR TRUMP ON
ELECTION NIGHT THAN HOW THEY ARE
GOING TO TURN OUT IN THE END
BECAUSE THE REPUBLICAN-LEANING
VOTES ARE LIKELY TO BE TALLIED
FIRST.
NOW, THERE’S A FEW OTHER
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT STATES
WHERE THAT SAME DYNAMIC MIGHT BE
AT WORK.
IN VIRGINIA, FOR EXAMPLE.
BUT MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA,
WISCONSIN IS WHERE THE EXPERTS
ARE MOST FOCUSED IN TERMS OF A
POTENTIAL FALSE IMPRESSION ON
ELECTION NIGHT IN STATES THAT
COULD BE DETERMINATIVE.
OF COURSE IT’S ALSO WHY
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NOW
CONSTANTLY INSISTING THAT THE
WINNER OF THE ELECTION MUST BE
DECLARED ON ELECTION NIGHT,
YEAH, BEFORE ALL THOSE OTHER
PESKY BALLOTS ARE COUNTED THAT
MIGHT SHOW A RESULT THAT HE
DOESN’T WANT.
SENATE DEMOCRATS HAVE JUST PUT
OUT A SHORT LITTLE GUIDE.
I’VE NEVER REALLY NOTICED THAT
SITTING SENATORS HAVE DONE
SOMETHING LIKE THIS BEFORE.
BUT IT’S HELPFUL ACTUALLY.
BASICALLY WHAT THEY’RE DOING
HERE IS THEY’RE TRYING TO SET
EXPECTATIONS FOR WHAT THE
ELECTION IS GOING TO BE LIKE AS
WE, THE VOTERS, AS WE, THE
CITIZENS, ABSORB INFORMATION
ABOUT THE TALLY AS IT IS TAKING
PLACE.
THEY’VE CALLED IT "COUNTING
VOTES AND WHAT TO EXPECT ON
ELECTION DAY."
AND I CREDIT THEM.
THEY ACTUALLY SPELL IT OUT SORT
OF PERFECTLY.
QUOTE, THIS YEAR WE KNOW THAT IN
SOME STATES VOTE TOTALS ON
ELECTION NIGHT MIGHT NOT GIVE US
A COMPLETE PICTURE OF WHO WILL
WIN WHEN ALL THE VOTES ARE
COUNTED.
ELECTION EXPERTS WARN THAT
BECAUSE THIS YEAR A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF REPUBLICANS ARE
VOTING IN PERSON WHILE MORE
DEMOCRATS ARE REQUESTING MAIL-IN
BALLOTS, EARLY VOTE COUNTS THAT
DON’T INCLUDE MANY ABSENTEE
BALLOTS MAY CREATE THE FALSE
APPEARANCE THAT REPUBLICANS ARE
AHEAD.
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S RHETORIC
INDICATES HE MAY EXPLOIT THIS
ILLUSION AND CLAIM VICTORY FOR
HIMSELF, THEN FALSELY CLAIM THAT
THERE’S MASSIVE FRAUD IN MAIL-IN
BALLOTS THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN
COUNTED OR REPORTED.
SOME STATES ARE WORKING TO
REDUCE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
UNDERMINE OUR ELECTIONS IN THIS
WAY BY REPORTING HOW MANY
OUTSTANDING ABSENTEE BALLOTS
REMAIN UNCOUNTED.
AMERICANS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
REJECT MISINFORMATION AND BE
PATIENT ABOUT RESULTS IN PLACES
WHERE COUNTING BALLOTS MAY TAKE
LONGER.
CRUCIAL STATES, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTCOME, MAY BE
THE PLACES THAT COUNT THE
SLOWEST.
AND SO WE PREPARE, RIGHT?
WE THINK AHEAD, AND WE ABSORB
THE HARD TRUTH THAT IT IS NOW
TOO LATE TO ENTRUST YOUR BALLOT
TO THE POST OFFICE, SO YOU NEED
TO BRING IT IN, IN PERSON.
WE ABSORB THAT INFORMATION.
WE PLAN ACCORDINGLY, AND WE ACT.
AND WE ABSORB AND MAYBE EVEN
EXPLAIN TO OTHERS THAT IT
DOESN’T MEAN SOMETHING’S WRONG
IF WE DON’T HAVE ANYWHERE NEAR A
DEFINITIVE RESULT ON ELECTION
NIGHT IN TERMS OF WHO’S GOING TO
BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT.
IT DOESN’T MEAN SOMETHING’S
WRONG IF THE RESULTS WE DO HAVE
ON ELECTION NIGHT ONLY REFLECT
WHICH VOTES HAVE BEEN COUNTED
FIRST, AND THAT’S LIKELY TO GIVE
THOSE EARLY NIGHT-ONE RESULTS A
PARTISAN TILT ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER DEPENDING ON WHICH STATES
PICKED WHICH VOTES TO COUNT
BEFORE THE OTHERS.
THAT’S OKAY.
BE PATIENT.
THERE’S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT
SYSTEM.
WE’VE ALL GOT TO BE PATIENT,
THOUGH.
IT’S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE.
IT ALSO MEANS THAT ANYBODY
DECLARING VICTORY ON ELECTION