>> THESE STRIKING IMAGES OF CHINESE WARSHIPS OFF THE COAST
OF TAIWAN THIS MONTH. A DIRE WARNING
OF A POTENTIAL INVASION THAT COULD DISRUPT THE GLOBAL
TECHNOLOGY SUPPLY CHAIN PLUNGE THE WORLD INTO AN ECONOMIC
CATASTROPHE AND START A HOT WAR BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA.
AND ACCORDING TO ONE GEOPOLITICS EXPERT, AN ACTUAL
INVASION COULD BE OVER BEFORE THE U.S. EVEN HAS A CHANCE TO
RESPOND. SO A LOT OF PEOPLE ASSUME THAT THIS WOULD BE SORT
OF A NORM OF THE TYPE OF BEACH LANDING. THE REALITY IS THAT
RAIN DOES NOT ALLOW IT. DEMETRIO PAIR OF ITS PREDICTED
THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE. AND NOW IN A NEW BOOK,
HE LAYS OUT HOW CHINA COULD SEIZE TAIWAN. FIRST, HE SAYS
THE CHINESE WOULD MOUNT A LIGHTNING FAST ASSAULT FROM THE
AIR AND THE SEA.
>> THEY'RE STILL GOING TO MOVE AND FITNESS ASSAULT SHIPS
ACROSS THE STRAIT. EACH OF THEM CAN DELIVER ABOUT 800 TROOPS
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, DOZENS OF 2 TRANSPORT HELICOPTERS AS WELL
AS GUN SHOPS TO DO AN AIRBORNE ASSAULT. THEY CAN REACH THAT.
YOU ARE PORTS WITHIN 10 TO 15 MINUTES.
>> THEY CAN DO THAT BY PARKING THEM IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS.
AND TAIWAN WOULD FEEL CONSTRAINED FROM FIRING FIRST
BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE SEEN AS PROVOKING A WAR.
>> YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE THESE TRANSPORT SHIPS, MOSTLY
CIVILIAN VESSELS AND HAVE BEEN LOADED WITH HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF TROOPS, ARMORED VEHICLES, TANKS, LOGISTICS,
THAT YOU NEED TO OCCUPY AN ISLAND OF 23 MILLION PEOPLE.
>> TO COVER THE ATTACKERS. ALL PAIR OF IT SAYS CHINA WOULD
STRIKE TAIWAN'S DEFENSES FROM A FALL.
>> I PROMISE WATCH FROM THE MAINLAND. YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE
THE LARGEST WHOSE MISSILE AND BALLISTIC MISSILE AND ROCKET
FORCES IN THE WORLD OLYMPICS. RADAR INSTALLATIONS PUMMELING
NAVAL FACILITIES COME ONLINE, COMMUNICATION NOTES.
>> THEN HE PREDICTS CHINESE MARINES IN HUGE AIRBOATS WOULD
RUSH UP THE RIVER LEADING TO THE CENTER OF THE CAPITAL CITY,
TAIPEI.
>> ALL THIS CAN HAPPEN LITERALLY WITHIN THE FIRST 30
MINUTES OF ACTION.
>> ALL THE WHILE, HE SAYS THE U.S. PRESIDENT FACING AN AWFUL
CHOICE, ALLOWED THE AGGRESSION TO STAND OR LAUNCH A WAR THAT
COULD KILL MORE AMERICANS THAN WORLD WAR 2. SO WHY IS TAIWAN
SO VITAL TO U.S. AND GLOBAL INTERESTS? ONE REASON, TAIWAN
MANUFACTURERS, ALMOST 70% OF THE WORLD'S SEMI-CONDUCTORS,
THOSE TINY BOARDS USED IN EVERYTHING FROM PHONES AND
LAPTOPS, THE LIFE-SAVING MEDICAL DEVICES AND THE VAST
SERVER NETWORK SAID POWER AMERICAN INDUSTRY. AND IF CHINA
INVADES EXPERTS SAY THE U.S. OR TAIWAN IS LIKELY TO DESTROY
THOSE FACTORIES, WHICH WAS SPELL ECONOMIC DISASTER FOR
MUCH OF THE WORLD, OR IF CHINA MANAGES TO CAPTURE THE
FACTORIES AND KEEP THEM OPERATIONAL, IT WOULD LEAP
AHEAD IN THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGIES. A PAIR
OF IT SAYS THAT WOULD HARM AMERICAN PROSPERITY AND
SECURITY. BUT SO WERE THE WAR WITH CHINA.
>> IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THAT WAS A LITTLE DEPRESSION RIGHT
OFF THE BAT. AND THAT ASSUMES THAT DOESN'T GO NUCLEAR.
>> THAT'S RIGHT. INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AND MILITARY LEADERS
HAVE BEEN WARNING FOR YEARS THAT CHINA IS WORKING ON PLANS
TO SEIZE TAIWAN BY FORCE. THE ADMIRAL IN CHARGE OF U.S.
PACIFIC COMMAND TOLD CONGRESS IN MARCH THE QUOTE, ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO THE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY
MEETING XI JINPING'S ALLEGED GOAL OF POTENTIALLY INVADING
TAIWAN BY 2027. WE HAVEN'T FACED A THREAT LIKE THIS SINCE
WORLD WAR. 2, CHINA HAS SPENT THE LAST 2 DECADES MODERNIZING
ITS MILITARY TO BE ABLE TO DESTROY AMERICAN SHIPS IN THE
PACIFIC GOING TO SHIPS.
>> YOU CAN LOSE. A LOT OF SAILORS ARE GOING TO LOSE
THOUSANDS, POTENTIALLY EVEN TENS OF THOUSANDS OF AMERICAN
TROOPS.
>> HEALTH CARE OF IT SAYS THE U.S. MUST MAKE CONTAINING CHINA
THE FOCUS OF ITS FOREIGN POLLS. ISIS HAS TO MAKE IT CLEAR TO
THEM THAT THE COST OF THIS CONFLICT ARE GOING TO BE TOO
HUGE FOR THE CHINESE ECONOMY. HE SAYS THAT MEANS ENDING US
RELIANCE ON CHINA FOR THINGS LIKE CRITICAL MINERALS AND
SOLAR PANELS. AND IT MEANS ARMING TAIWAN IN A WAY THAT
WOULD MAKE AN INVASION MUCH MORE PAINFUL THAN IT WITH YOU
TODAY.
WELL, TO INFLUENCE THE CALCULATIONS OF THE CHINESE
PRESIDENT.
>> WE WANT HIM TO WAKE UP EVERY SINGLE DAY AND LOOK AT ITSELF
IN THE MERITS. HE'S SHAVING AND SAY TODAY IS NOT THE DAY.
>> KEN DILANIAN, NBC NEWS