I guess we all face uncertainty, don't we?
Yet all of us still have to make big decisions
that can have important consequences,
whether personal or organisational.
But as behavioural economists like Dan Kahneman have pointed out,
we tend to be trapped within the limits of our own experience,
which leads to all kinds of problems.
That's why, for the last 50 years,
Shell has been exploring critical uncertainties through Scenarios,
asking "What if?" questions that encourage leaders to stretch their thinking
and consider what you might call "alternative memories of the future".
For most of us, thinking about the future is quite tricky.
That's because imagining the future and recalling memories
both use the same areas of the brain...
...which means that we can only really imagine the future
as being similar to what we already know from the past.
One way of challenging our assumptions is by becoming aware of
and understanding different perspectives.
For example, on Christmas Eve 1968,
the first manned mission to the moon entered lunar orbit.
Ironically, the mission's aim was to explore space,
but that evening the astronauts took an important picture...
...not of space, but of Earth.
And it gave us a totally new perspective of our planet and our future
that would go on to inspire generations of environmentalists.
Life magazine called it one of the "most influential images of all time".
So, by understanding present issues from multiple perspectives,
we become better at anticipating alternative future events and trends.
Some Scenarios look at very specific and immediate situations
within a short time horizon,
like challenges within the Eurozone, or Brexit,
or developments in the South China Sea.
Others look out over decades at the development of the global energy system
and its impact on the environment.
We start out by thinking big.
We think about the major trends that are beyond our control,
such as demographic changes, politics,
technological progress or climate change,
and then think about their potential influence
on people's behaviours and attitudes,
on things like the economy, urbanisation,
transport and healthcare.
Then we explore the potential impact these in turn may have
until we're able to model very specific Scenarios.
We also try to learn and to stimulate deeper collaboration
by publishing material, discussing our thinking extensively,
and developing Scenarios with governments, think tanks and other interested parties.
It's very much an outside-in approach.
While our own multi-disciplinary team and around 150 other Shell experts
might have contributed to some of our large-scope work,
up to 300 external experts may also have been involved.
At its heart, Scenario work forces decision-makers
to consider alternative possibilities and reflect on their implications.
Over the long term,
this new Scenario mindset can be the most valuable outcome of the work,
because as well as bringing different understanding and perspectives
into a coherent whole,
we're bringing new insights to life in the hearts,
minds and actions of key decision makers.
That's why I often refer to two Scenario crafts:
the analytical and the social.
I believe this will help our company and other leaders make wiser decisions
as we aim to provide people across the world
with the energy they need for a decent quality of life
which is also environmentally sustainable.
This is a critical, economy-wide challenge,
because everything we do needs energy, but it can be achieved.
Shell Scenarios are helping us prepare for that future,
and I hope this approach will also help you prepare
for the challenges and uncertainties you might face in the future.