THE UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST RELEASED A WIDE-RANGING
POLITICAL POLL THIS WEEK.
AMONG THE MATTERS IT ASKED PEOPLE ABOUT THEIR OPINIONS OF
GOVERNOR CHARLIE BAKER AND PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, THE
DIRECTION OF THE STATE AND THE NATION, THE 2018 PRIMARY -- AND
IT EVEN LOOKED AHEAD TO THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
WE WILL GET INTO ALL OF THAT IN A MOMENT BUT FIRST, I ASKED
TATEESH NETETA AND JESSE RHODES, BOTH FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST, WHAT SURPRISED THEM ABOUT THE POLLING
RESULTS.
>> WELL, I THINK ONE THING THAT WAS REALLY
STRIKING IN THE POLLS WAS THE AGE, POPULAR ALONG YOUNGER
COHORTS AND THERE WAS SUPPORT FOR AGE AND CERTAIN ISSUES ON
THE BALLOT.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU LOOK AT SENATOR WARREN'S SUPPORT, THERE
WAS MUCH GREATER SUPPORT AMONG THE YOUNGER, 18-29 AGE GROUP AS
OPPOSED TO THE OLDEST AGE GROUP.
THE REVERSE WAS TRUE FOR GOVERNOR BAKER AS WELL, THAT
YOUNGER GROUPS SCORED HIM LESS THAN OLDER GROUPS.
>> AND I WAS INTERESTED, TOO, LOOKING AT THE BREAKDOWN OF WHO
VOTED WHEN, THE 20 PERCENT OF FOLKS WHO SAID THEY VOTED EARLY,
GIVEN THAT YOUNG PIECE, I EXPECTED EARLY VOTING NUMBERS TO
BE MUCH HIGHER.
WHAT DID YOU THINK WHEN YOU SAW THOSE NUMBERS?
>> EARLY VOTING IS A SOMEWHAT NEW ADDITION TO --
>> THE WAY WE SAW IT IN THE MID TERM --
>> YES, AND ALSO PEOPLE ARE NOT USED TO VOTING IN MID TERMS
WHERE THE HISTORIC TURNOUT IS VERY LOW SO PEOPLE ARE GETTING
USED TO THIS NEW FORM OF VOTING BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS YOUNGER
PEOPLE WILL BE MORE INTERESTED IN THAT TYPE OF VOTING.
>> THIS IS PART OF THE NATIONWIDE TREND AS WELL, THAT
WE'RE SEEING A REAL CHANGE OCCURRING IN HOW PEOPLE VOTE AND
WHY AND WAY MORE PEOPLE ARE VOTING BEFORE ELECTION DAY AND
THIS CHANGE IS BEING LED BY YOUNGER VOTERS.
>> ANYTHING THAT STOOD OUT TO YOU, SURPRISES?
>> SO WE ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE 2020 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY.
WE ASSUMED SENATOR WARREN WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT GIVEN THE FACT
OF HER POPULARITY IN THE STATE.
WE ALSO ASSUMED SHE WOULD
■BETHE FRONT RUNNER IN HER OWN STATE
AND WHAT WE FOUND IS SHE IS BEHIND BOTH SENATORS SANDERS AND
FORMER VICE-PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN.
AND THE TRADITIONAL GROUPS WHICH HAVE SUPPORTED SENATOR WARREN,
PEOPLE OF COLOR, YOUNG VOTERS, LIBERAL VOTER, WOMEN VOTERS,
TEND NOT TO BE SHOWING UP IN SUPPORT OF A POTENTIAL WARREN
CANDIDATES SEE. >> AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT HER
POPULARITY HERE IN THE STATE, IT IS VERY HIGH SO THAT COULD BE AN
INDICATION THAT PEOPLE WANT HER TO STAY REPRESENTING THE STATE
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND NOT SEEK HIGHER OFFICE.
IS THAT HOW YOU READ THE NUMBERS?
>> I THINK THAT COULD BE DEFINITELY PART OF IT.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE INTERPRETATION IS THAT MASS COMMUTES -- MASS
MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS ARE THINKING ABOUT WHO WOULD BE THE
ONE TO GO HEAD TO HEAD AGAINST DONALD TRUMP, PEOPLE WHO HAVE A
MORE NATIONAL REPUTATION THAN SOMEONE WHO I -- WHO MAY BE THE
BEST FIT IN 2020.
>> YOU ASKED REPUBLICANS IN THIS WHETHER THEY WOULD SUPPORT
PRESIDENT TRUMP IF HE RAN FOR REELECTION.
FORTY PERCENT OF PEOPLE WHO SUPPORTED SAID THEY WOULD
SUPPORT HIM AGAIN.
INTERESTINGLY, IT LOOKS LIKE ACCORDING TO YOUR POLL, THERE IS
A RACE BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP, WERE HE TO RUN AGAIN, AND
GOVERNOR BAKER, WHO HAS NOT SAID HE IS GETTING INTO THE RACE.
WHAT DID YOU THINK OF THAT?
>> I THINK IN SOME WAYS THAT IS NOT SURPRISING.
GOVERNOR BAKER IS ONE OF THE MOST POPULAR POLITICAL FIGURES
IN THE STATE AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO IT MAKES SENSE IN A
STATE WHERE THERE IT HAS BEEN HIH LEVELS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH,
VERY LITTLE CONTROVERSY OR ANY SCANDALS THAT A PERSON LIKE
GOVERNOR BAKER WOULD BE EXTREMELY COMPETITIVE WITH
PRESIDENT TRUMP GIVEN ALL THE ISSUES HE HAS HAD THE FIRST FEW
YEARS IN OFFICE.
>> AND I THINK IT IS KEY TO KEEP IN MIND ONE OF THE KEYS TO
HIS SUCCESS IS MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS ARE VERY DIFFERENT THAN
PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN PARTY.
SO IN A PROGRESSIVE STATE, GOVERNOR BAKER HAS FOUND IT A
FORMULA THAT IS VERY APPEALING DESPITE THE FACT HE IS VERY
REPUBLICAN.
>> AND WHAT DO YOU THINK THE MESSAGE THE BAKER CAMP MIGHT
TAKE FROM THE POLL COULD BE?
>> I THINK THE MESSAGE THE POLL COMMUNICATES IS THAT GOVERNOR
BAKER HAS MAINTAINED HIS OVERWHELMING POPULARITY BUT WHAT
IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT HIS POPULARITY IS WIDE-RANGE
RANGING.
SO HE IS POPULAR AMONG THE OLD AND THE YOUNG, LIBERALS AND
CONSERVATIVES, TRUMP VOTERS AND CLINTON VOTERS.
I WOULD MAKE THE CASE THAT HE HAS DONE THE IMPOSSIBLE.
HE HAS A MAJORITY OF SUPPORT FROM CLINTON AND TRUMP VOTERS
AND THAT IS SOMETHING RARE IN OUR POLITICS TODAY
>> ABSOLUTELY.
SO AS I SAID, THE POLL IS WIDE RANGING.
WE HAVE FOCUSED A LOT IN 2020 AND YOU ALSO POLLED ON THE
DIRECTION THAT THE COUNTRY WAS HEADING AND THOSE NUMBERS ARE
FASCINATING TO ME BECAUSE IT IS A DIRECT FLIPFLOP.
IF PEOPLE DON'T FEEL THE NATION IS DOING WELL, THEY THINK THE
STATE OF MASSACHUSETTS IS DOING WHY WET, WILL 68 PERCENT IF YOU
LIVE IN THE STATE VERSUS 32 PERCENT.
SO IS THAT A CASE WHERE PEOPLE WANT TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC?
I KNOW YOU ARE NOT IT A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR BUT
DOES THAT REFLECT HOW PEOPLE VOTE CLOSER TO HOME?
>> I THINK THIS T -- IT RELATEO HOW PEOPLE VIEW IS GOING ON IN
THE WORLD AND WHO IS IN CONTROL.
PRESIDENT TRUMP DOMINATED THE CONVERSATION TILL 2018.
WE HAVE THE REPUBLICAN CONGRESS AND THEN MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS, I
THINK OVERWHELMINGLY DEMOCRATIC AND LIBERAL, WHEN THEY LOOK AT
THE NATIONAL SITUATION, THEY THINK NOT GOOD.
BUT WHEN THEY LOOK CLOSER TO HOME, A DYNAMIC ECONOMY, IT
MAKES THEM FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON.
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STATE OF
MASSACHUSETTS, WE ARE DOING WELL.
WE HAVE THE NUMBER ONE RANKED EDUCATION SYSTEM, THERE'S STATE
MEDICAL CARE, MASSACHUSETTS IN THE ECONOMY IS DOING FANTASTIC
SO I THINK IT IS A REFLECTION OF REALITY.
YOU TURN ON THE TV AND SEE ALL THE BAD NEWS COMING OUT OF THE
NATION BUT IF YOU READ YOUR LOCAL NEWSPAPER, BOSTON GLOBE,
IT IS REALLY POSITIVE NEWS ABOUT THE STATE.
>> YOU ALSO DID SOME WORD CLOUDS WHICH I THINK ARE REALLY FUN SO
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THOSE.
YOU ASKED THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING MASSACHUSETTS
AND WE'LL SHOW THIS TO THE FOLKS WITH THE GRAPHIC AS WELL.
INFRASTRUCTURE AND HOUSING CAME OUT AS WORDS PEOPLE USED TIME
AND TIME AGAIN.
DID YOU GIVE PEOPLE THE SELECTIONS?
>> THIS WAS SOMETHING PEOPLE HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO DESCRIBE WHAT
THEY THOUGHT WERE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES AND ONE THING
THAT WE TOOK AWAY FROM THIS IS MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS ARE VERY
MUCH FOCUSED ON BEDROCK, BASIS, IDEOLOGICAL ISSUES THAT DEAL
WITH PEOPLE'S EXPERIENCES IN DAY-TO-DAY LIFE AND WHAT IS
INTERESTING IS THINGS THAT DIDN'T RISE TO THE TOP LIKE
IMMIGRATION, ABORTION AND OTHER RACIALLY AND I
DEALOGICALLY-CHARGED ISSUES SO IT WOULD SEEM LIKE FOLKS ARE
LOOKING FOR THESE BEDROCK OPPORTUNITY.
>> I THINK HOUSING IS A REFLECTION OF THE FACT THAT
PEOPLE TO WANT MOVE HERE.
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE, EAST SIDE OF THE STATE, THINGS
ARE GOING WELL.
PEOPLE SEE THIS AS A PLACE THEY WANT TO RAISE A FAMILY, AND THEN
PEOPLE WANT TO SEE INFRASTRUCTURE IN PARTICULAR
REGIONS IN THE STATE SO AGAIN AS JESSE SAID, I THINK THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE BREAD AND BUTTER POLITICS AND PEOPLE WANT
SOLUTIONS TO THESE PARTICULAR PROBLEMS AND THAT IS ACROSS
THE STATE.