Let’s talk about this US election
what to watch
and what it all means.
Starting with the way Americans
pick their president.
We’ll tell you about the battleground states
to look out for
why the Senate race is so important
and what could happen if Trump or Biden
refuse to accept defeat.
Throw in a pandemic and you could say
there’s never been a US election like it.
So here’s a primer to help get through it all
and prepare us for what might happen next.
This election has been one big roller coaster
with all kinds of drama
right from the beginning.
There’s been a lot of craziness.
And there might still be more.
So let’s take things a step at a time.
The first thing to get your head around is
how Americans are going to be choosing
their next president.
Yes, people will vote for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden
but it’s ultimately the Electoral College
that decides who wins.
That college is made up of 538 electors.
They’re people chosen from each state.
The number of electors each state gets
depends on how many members of Congress it has.
So California has 55.
But Vermont only has three.
Now whether a state’s electors are Republican or Democrat
depends on which candidate gets the most votes
in that state.
So let’s take California as an example.
Say a majority of Californians vote for Joe Biden.
He wins the popular vote there.
In that case all of California’s 55 electors
are going to be Democrats.
It’s winner takes all no matter how small the majority.
Those 55 Democrat electors
are then obliged to vote for Biden.
To become president
Trump or Biden has to get at least 270 electoral votes
that’s just over half.
So it’s the Electoral College that matters.
Not winning the popular vote.
And 2016 is a good example of that.
Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
by a total of just under 80,000 votes.
But he ended up getting all 46 electoral votes
in those three states.
It helped him cross the 270 mark to win
even though Hillary Clinton got more votes overall
nearly 3 million more.
Whether the Electoral College is better or worse
than just a straightforward popular vote
is debated basically every four years.
But the system is written into the US Constitution.
That’s hard to change.
The reality today, though, is that political parties
still focus on a handful of states
just not necessarily the big ones.
They’re known as battleground states
where the races are tight.
Most states tend to vote Republican or Democrat.
But some states, well, they have a history
of swinging either way.
Or maybe they have a diverse range of voters.
Pennsylvania is actually Joe Biden’s home state.
Voters there backed Barack Obama in 2012.
But in 2016 it swung for Trump.
Wisconsin’s another one.
It was the big surprise of 2016.
Wisconsin hadn’t voted Republican since 1984.
Clinton didn’t even campaign there
and Trump ended up winning by just 23,000 votes.
And there are others.
Arizona is a question mark this year because
while it’s reliably Republican
in the recent midterm elections
a Democrat won the Senate race there.
Then there’s Florida.
It’s got 29 electoral votes.
And it’s fickle.
But there’s a lot more going on
than just the presidential contest.
There are governor jobs
state and local offices up for grabs
and the congressional races.
Winning the most seats in Congress is important
because Republicans and Democrats can push through
policies they like and block ones they don’t.
In the House of Representatives
all the seats are up for re-election.
Right now the Democrats have a comfortable majority.
And they want to keep it that way.
Same for the Republicans in the Senate.
But their majority is slim.
A third of seats are being contested this year.
It’s why there’s been a big push by both parties
to get everyone voting.
And many Americans aren’t waiting for November 3.
“Many people are starting to take advantage of early voting and mail-in ballots.”
Because of the pandemic
more states have allowed people to post their votes.
Turnout is expected to be big.
But if you’re planning to sit down to hours of TV coverage
or stay glued to social media to find out
who’s won on election night you could be waiting days
maybe weeks.
Usually we get unofficial results on the night
that give us a pretty good idea of who’s won.
But the long process of counting all those votes
is going to take even longer this year
mainly because of so many mailed ballots.
What happens in the meantime?
That’s what some people are worried about.
Because things could get messy.
President Trump has said over and over again
that those mailed-in ballots could lead to fraud
and he might not accept a defeat.
Several top Republicans though have played down
the idea that the president won’t concede.
Trump’s press secretary said the same
though she left some wiggle room.
But the Democrats say it’s the president
who’s trying to undermine the election.
If there is any dispute it could end up in the Supreme Court.
That’s what happened in 2000.
That’s why the recent death of Supreme Court Justice
Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been such a big political story.
She was a liberal judge.
And Trump wants to replace her with a conservative one.
That’s important because those judges
could end up being the kingmakers
deciding who becomes president.
If it comes to that.
Whatever happens the president’s term officially ends
in 2021, January 20, at noon.
That’s Inauguration Day.
If there’s still no winner by then
and this would really be unprecedented
a few things could happen.
Some people are suggesting Nancy Pelosi
the speaker of the House of Representatives
is meant to take over.
Another theory is that the House should hold a vote.
That actually happened with Thomas Jefferson in the 1800s.
The hope is that we don’t get to that point.
Trust is important.
And the US has a pretty solid track record
when it comes to free and transparent elections.
Americans are proud of their democracy
even if some feel it’s being tested.