amid stalled Pyongyang Washington nuclear talks North Korea's latest
activities have once again put inter-korean relations at risk and just
days after an abrupt order from Kim jong-un to get rid of South Korean
facilities at Mount Kumgang resort North Korea conducted yet another round of
projectile launches raising concerns in the region meanwhile South Korea's
Intelligence Agency today said Kim jong-un is seeking to meet with US
President Trump before the year ends today we go in-depth on possible
solutions to strained inter-korean relations and prospects of North Korea
US nuclear talks with dr. Kim Jung Hyun at the asan Institute for Policy Studies
welcome to the program so South Korea's national intelligence
agency today said that Kim jong-un is seeking to meet with US president Trump
in December at the latest how do you gauge the possibility of that happening
before the year end well that's a possibility clearly as is we have a
confirmation from an assister it's probably that North Korea's North Korean
leader is entertaining the opportunity to I mean the chastened mean with
President Trump for the from his all time very seriously not to understand
this in the context of the self-imposed deadline that North Korean leader came
up with earlier this year which he stated that the United States had until
the end of the year to change its negotiation approach does North Korea
meaning University shoot tons of terrorists North Korea so in a way in a
way player kim jungnam might be thinking about meeting with president wrong one
last time before he will hold a deadline before he changes his approach towards
in the United States meaning or more hardline more aggressive approach of
provocations and whatnot so in the sense I think he's trying to maximize the
pressure on the present job is dangling two options in front of Trump no way one
is one of dialogue in which Kim and troubled middle game with attended the
political benefits proper centrum and at the same time the other option is the
option that an almost to go down alcohol's to choose which is one of
confrontation and conflict so in order to maximize in a ways for United States
to choose between the two options I think is dangling this a possibility of
me we present trample - for the third time
if Kim jong-un and Trump actually meet in December what are the possible
scenarios of the outcome of their summit so what to think about this I mean right
now the trajectory that North Korea's engaged in is one of escalating
provocations escalating tensions you know as to use that as a leverage on the
United States so we can imagine with the deadline a game by December the pressure
the United States to do something with the North Korea will be at discharge
maximum so to speak so in the sense I think a United States would be thinking
about giving something to in North Korea in order to manage the situation at
least and in the essence even though we're talking about a huge downside risk
if the summit doesn't lead to an outcome at the same time increase the chance of
a some possibilities earth might come out of it
so we are in between the two very dramatic and different of resource in a
way so each I think it's a period of higher certainty and I think as since
the NIS is close the fact that North Korea is reconsidering meeting with a
person Trump again before the end of the year I think a more information will
come out which will allow us to gauge what kind of research will come out of
this support potential meeting now the National Intelligence Agency also said
that Kim jong-un may visit China before the year ends do you expect that to
happen and if from Kim and she meet what kind of outcome do you expect from that
meeting my assessment I think are the likelihood of another visit by Kim
jong-un to Beijing is very more likely than others our meeting between Trump
and Kim because I mean she already bacilli North Korea June this year so in
a way and then also this is the year of 17 years anniversary of the
establishment I stabbed lachemann top with the program
relations between DPRK and China so in a way I think I came for support
diplomatic protocol reasons will already set back to China so I could initiate he
has to go back anyways in a way and the second reason is because no matter what
happens in the negotiation with Washington if they like or there are two
scenarios here one is in which there is some
with presents from then we have seen the pattern here where North Korea needed go
to Beijing for consultation with XI before meeting with the US president so
he go there waging anyways but even if there's no sort of meeting between the
Washington and Pyongyang I think a chemical to Beijing
before in order deadline to get assurances of backing from China in case
North Korea Escalus again in the next year so anyways I think that there's a
need for North Korea to cut doctrine leader to go to Beijing now to
inter-korean relations South Korea has proposed North Korea to meet face to
face to hold talks on the Mount Kumgang resort and Mount Kumgang tour as a whole
instead of accepting the proposal North Korea has instead fired off another
projectiles into the East Sea what kind of message is North Korea sending to the
South well it's very clear message I think we don't have to interpret it too
deep I mean it's clear that North Korea doesn't want to say it once doesn't want
to talk to South Korea at this juncture right now their attention is focused in
Washington I mean clearly all their energy atomic energies is being spent
and realizing this either Lucas or does meeting with John or like a some sort of
agreement so in that sense there's a lot of time and resources to meet with the
South Korean counterparts Dutch one and second is that they're using you know
this you know like a laptop engaging with South Korea as a leverage or
Oregon's instrument to raise tension in the Korean Peninsula
so when Washington sister inter-korean relations is not doing well and it's not
going anywhere then this increase increased the
perception that the North Koreans are very being a receiver gain so in turn
that increases the pressure on Washington to do something take action
so I think are there in a North Korean style taking into account this kind of
our different åkesson areas right now North Korea's latest projectile launch
came about 30 days after the North launched
submarine-launched ballistic missile and that marked the 12th missile launch this
year alone could you tell us a little bit about the specification of North
Korea's latest projectiles so in terms of the
the significance of the latest test which involved a short-range rocket I
mean it should be actually it's a message directing South Korea because
this rocket that North Koreans tested doesn't really have a capability to
carry nuclear warheads unlike the one they tested last month at the SLBM which
even the German term Iliad or short-range missile it can carry on the
cleanroom so has a strategic meaning on it but the
rocket tests there is actually part of the conventional weaponry that North
Koreans are developing right now even though has a really long range from a
simple rocket system it's guided and it's a maximum range of around 300 miles
which can which in terms of range can include the entire South Korea
geographically speaking so also in the sense you cannot threaten as well you
can assert in Japan or the United States but and threaten South Korea so it's a
message at irregular South Korea unlike the SLBM test which was squarely
directed at Japan and not the United States so North Korea's are using two
different tactics here they are sending a message to Washington and then that
message is followed by a message directly to South Korea so they are
taking turns in that sense and then in by doing so they are actually maximizing
the sensed reception that North Koreans are going to do something nasty now the
US has expressed concerns over North Korea's projectile launch while Japan
has said that it's a violation of UN resolutions South Korea has also
expressed concerns how do you gauge the impacts of North Korea's projectile
launch on inter-korean relations well so clearly it's not doing any good to the
interpreter relations but I think the bigger shock for the South Korean
demonstration was Kim jong-il's visit to Mount Kumgang resort and Timothy Cade
there who essentially was very anti South Korea in a way of react recep i
mean he threatened to demolish the south korean facilities their appropriate
assessment properties investments in Mount Kumgang so those are lamorak
receipt and say the military exercises that North Korea just are carried out in
terms of a skier provocation clearly the latest one was smaller than the
SLBM test they carried out so the South Korea negotiations reaction to the
latest provocation so to speak I mean it's not surprising because I think the
South Korean government finally is realizing that North Koreans meaning
that a minute when they are expressing this content about South Korea's
attitude towards North Korea so I think I mean the South Korean government
proteus decided that you know God taking us to step back and trying to be I'm
trying to solve in I so positive or chanting not to react to the North
Korea's like resistors stay mr. South Korea it's not working anymore so in a
way South Korean government sees the value in being more actually I say more
confrontational say with North Korea so that you can drive the message home to
Kenyan that you know South Korea also has a limit in terms of patience now on
the same day North Korea fired those new jack tiles reports reports came out that
Kim jong-un had sent condolences to president when Jane following the death
of President Lee's mother now many interpreted that as a positive
signal to inter-korean relations how did you see that well I mean so clearly a
positive gesture coming from camión but then I think in general as a tool I mean
he's playing two games at the same time one is I mean becoming fee allowed we
are allowed to call it games Kim jong-un is thinking about this strategic
interplay with South Korea but also with the United States so because his time is
running out so to speak cause of the impose deadlines that he came up with
himself I mean he wants to maintain certain level relations with both
Washington and so but at the same time he cannot waste time by taking us to sit
back and check to see cage reactions coming from Seoul and Washington to each
one of his actions so even though his action of sending condolences to the
South Korean president and at the same time testing mr. Zimm contradictory but
in the multiple games that North Korea is engaged in right now is - makes total
sense because North Korea is looking at it at all North Korean eyes are probably
focused on the end of the year somehow they have to come up with either than
somebody with trump or some sort of agreement
stays so take a minute to waste so to speak so sure that guy looks very
contractor in here but at the same time for the North Koreans point of view this
is the only option that they have so this month and the next will be very
critical it will be a critical juncture for the peace process on the Korean
Peninsula we also heard today through reports that
North Korea is promoting now promoting its Mount Kumgang tour program online
and this came after rejecting South Korea's calls to meet face to face for
talks on Mount Kumgang tours and this obviously is seen as North Korea's
efforts to up the pressure against South Korea what do you think South South
Korean government should do next well I think the current tech South Korean
government stands for North Korea we're clear I mean sending clear stern message
to North Korea whenever North Korea carries out an aggression or provocation
it's actually it's a white one I would say yes sir I mean there's not much the
South Korean can do in terms of restarting our cooperation with North
Korea on gong-gong a malcontent project I think in many ways North quit bluffing
when North Koreans are threatening to shut down a mechanic appropriate as
asked on investments there because Mankin guns is a society that's actually
special I mean actually specific to the Korean nation doesn't have a much of a
brand value to foreigners so to speak and nobody knows about Monken gonna sell
us all the Korean Peninsula even in China no I mean no few people know about
my own gun and also the location of mahogany service very close to South
Korea so it's actually designed in a way to attract a South Korean tourism and
investment so I think North Korea notice so nostrils know that even if they can
open up you know any side nose create internal tourism at the end of the day
that the man is going to come from South Korea I think a South Korean government
should be my prop there and then take a more like a long-term approach to
convince North Korea to change them which mine about what they said about
manga now in about two weeks time it marks the 21st anniversary since the
joint and Mount Kumgang tourism project first launched was first launched
between the two koreas do you expect South Korea
to make another proposal to the north to meet for talks on Mount Kumgang marking
the anniversary so yeah I'm definitely sure like I think a South Korean
government would use that opportunity to establish reestablish a channel of
dialogue with North Korea I mean after all the other the ways those Korea
decided to stop the provocations the psycrow provocation attended 2017 and
and come to the negotiation table was the North Korean participation attention
Olympics which was started by South Korean government invitation to pinyin
to participate in Olympics so I think the South Korean government probably has
a similar play move in mind to entice North Korea to come out and then seal at
the negotiation table and discuss again about the potential engagement projects
but at the same time as I described before
North Korea's mind is focused on the negotiation in Washington so it's
unlikely North Korea will be distracted for encode thinking about engagement
South Korea at this juncture so but at the same time I would actually keep
credit to South Korean government for trying and no matter what happens and
there are before the end of the year or early next North Korea be there and then
I think our there'll be another chance at engagement so for their a secret
sauce control mission keep working on this we should be prepared for the
restaurant engagement all right thank you as always dr. Cole for your insights
tonight my pleasure