Zuckerberg versus Musk in a cage match.
Who do you have your money on?
You know what? I think he might try to get some Neuralink hacks
or maybe fill his body with nanobots to give himself like chimpanzee strength.
There might be something there.
Well, Dan, I guess we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance.
I mean, how do you feel about Bitcoin dominance?
You heard me say I believe, you know, we have Bitcoin-- BSV pumping,
Bitcoin Cash pumping.
In the past, that's a scary, scary sign that things are about to fall.
I mean, what are the charts telling you here?
I guess I'll share my screen.
Let's just jump into it.
Let's jump. Let's dive in.
Bitcoin dominance chart,
I want to try and break this down, like, as simply as possible,
leave aside emotion, like, just pull in the data.
So I guess to set context to this Bitcoin dominance chart,
the most important thing, just the way that I see the charts anyway,
if we go to just a regular Bitcoin chart,
it's all for me based on the bull market starting, right?
And for me, it's these areas.
Bull market doors.
That's Bitcoin's bull market doors.
Bitcoin's bull market doors back in 2017,
2020,
and speculatively post-2024 halving kind of all the way over here.
And very simply what those doors are for me is it's a bull market high
to a bear market low
and it's just this retracement, this Fibonacci.
When Bitcoin's breaking through there aggressively,
that is the bull market really just kind of starting, right?
So there it is last cycle in 2020.
Here it is in 2016-2017.
And you can even go all the way back,
and we had Bitcoin bull market doors all the way back here in 2013.
That parabolic just here-we-go type of environment.
So, if you pull that area on the charts to Bitcoin dominance,
this is what we're looking at.
All the way over here.
Potentially, speculatively bull market doors.
And I know there's a lot of people talking about the bull market starting now.
And that's just not something that I agree with.
I think we're kind of in between that area now,
the end of the bear market and the beginning of the next bull market.
So very similar to kind of right here,
back in 2019.
And you could just see Bitcoin dominance on the way up then.
We're in a very similar move right now.
Bitcoin dominance is making its move.
But the thing that just really stands out to me on this chart,
on the Bitcoin dominance chart,
is if you go to the Bitcoin bull market doors being broken post-2016 halving,
Bitcoin dominance fell in that bull market, right?
If you go back to the bull market doors that we just looked at being broken in 2020,
it had a little bit of an uptick at the beginning of the bull market,
and then in the bull market, Bitcoin dominance fell again.
So I'm very much just anticipating,
yes, in the short to mid term until we get to the next bull market,
dominance can very much continue to rise,
but this next bull market,
I very much just see it falling again,
if not more drastically.
And this area up here, just this lower high area for dominance,
it's another Fibonacci.
It's a swing high of the last Bitcoin dominance pump
to the swing low of Bitcoin dominance.
So I'm kind of leaving all this room, like, 60%, 65% dominance for Bitcoin
from now until we get into just that next Bitcoin halving,
Bitcoin bull market, whatever you want to call it.
And just to kind of sum all that up and end this and to kind of tie in altcoins
to what I'm saying, you hear a lot about altcoin season,
if you just look at the dominance chart,
altcoin season is basically the bull markets.
That's alt season.
You know what I'm saying?
So we might have a ways to go before alt season truly is here.
And the one kind of outlier here, one factor that really plays into this,
and I'm really just curious to see how it plays out,
is everything going on with the SEC and the attack on crypto right now.
Everybody's so hyped about Bitcoin and the Bitcoin narrative
because altcoins, certain altcoins are very much under attack right now. Right?
So there's kind of this strength to Bitcoin
even from a risk assessment standpoint.
And we see Bitcoin kind of making a move to the upside because of that.
But even with this attack on altcoins,
Bitcoin dominance is still lower than where it was at this part of the last cycle.
And that--
I mean, that says something.
Yeah, so I have a theory.
And I don't really hear many people talking about it.
It's the--
there's an overlooked fact when it comes to Bitcoin dominance,
is that is the amount of stablecoins in the market.
Now, what do you think of this theory?
I'm just going to unpack it a little bit.
I think as we get less, well, more friendly regulators in the system,
or, you know, the signals by BlackRock, Fidelity,
it seems like maybe there's some moves
where there's a slight shift in the regulatory environment.
I think a stablecoin will be given the favorable treatment of being labeled a commodity.
Once that happens,
a huge, huge influx of stablecoins is going to emerge.
Second point here,
how do some whales buy Bitcoin?
Sure, there's some OTC deals.
You got, you know, the guy,
"I'll meet you in Dubai and, you know, I'm going to give you a billion dollars in cash,
and you're going to give me a billion dollars in Bitcoin."
Sure, that happens sometimes.
But a lot of times,
they initially put a whole bunch of money into the ecosystem via stablecoins.
You've seen Tether prints during a bull run.
"Oh, Tether just printed another 3 billion."
"Oh, Tether just printed another 500 million."
What is that if not a whale entering into the market via Tether?
And then what do they usually do with that Tether?
I think they buy some Bitcoin.
And so you have this huge influx of stablecoins.
Every billion printed at Tether is a nice knock on Bitcoin dominance.
And then I think they immediately buy Bitcoin.
So we have Bitcoin pumping at the same time domination falling,
and it all makes sense if you just think of,
"Yeah, a whale, he'd market buy.
He goes to the Tether offices.
He gives them the pile of cash.
They give him a pile of Tether in a wallet.
And then he just goes on Binance and he swaps them to Bitcoin."
Wait. What do you think of that theory how more and more stablecoins,
as we move forward, will enter the system
rendering this metric, you know, just less powerful?
I definitely agree.
I'm kind of curious of your thoughts with everything you just said.
Like, what timeframe on this chart, do you see that coming into play?
So I see it happening a little bit sooner this time.
I think we're going to have BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard, these ETFs,
maybe even some sovereign nations, you know, maybe even some EU banks.
We saw something with Deutsche Bank is going to try to do custody.
So I think they're going to--
essentially, you could make it six months earlier.
I think it's going to happen a little bit earlier.
What that does to price action, I don't know, you know?
I mean, already, the last cycle was a little bit odd with the double top.
You know, technically three years, 10 months,
it should have topped in October, November,
which it largely did,
but then we got the early pump in April.
And so, you know, there's some weird factors at play here, you know?
I don't know if it's institutional money trying to front run a bull market
creating an early bull market.
I just kind of thought of that actually.
Maybe that's what's happened in there.
Yeah. And that's what I'm trying to really pinpoint this time around too
because everything really does,
even with all the crazy headlines that we have going on,
everything does seem--
I don't want to say this, but it seems a little different this cycle.
Yeah.
Because, I mean, what the SEC is doing is kind of foundational to why it's so different
because we have Coinbase now and Binance and Ripple.
It's not like they're in this, like, weak defensive position like years past.
I mean, Ripple at the beginning, what did Coinbase do?
They removed XRP, like, right away.
Like, "Alright. Alright. We're sorry. XRP, let's get rid of it."
Now, Coinbase is coming out.
You have, like, their Chief Legal Officer, basically, Paul Grewal I think his name is,
just putting out videos. It's like, "Yeah, we're here to fight."
Brian Armstrong,
"We're here. We're happy to represent the industry.
Let's move forward. We're going to keep building."
They're not removing altcoins like ADA this time, right?
So there's just something different in the air right now.
You know what's funny is, you know, what was the crux of that change?
It could be Gary Gensler's videos.
He's going out there like he's, you know, Richard Heart in '21, you know.
"Hey, you know, I got some clever pun about steak knives and staking,
and, you know, here's a picture of a vampire with a wooden stake."
And you would not expect that in 2020.
You would not expect,
"Yeah, you know, I could see when Jerome Powell was nominated,
he's going to make memes."
No, I never would have guessed that.
So maybe they're taking a page out of their book,
"And you know what? I'm going to fight fire with fire.
You're going to try to make some clever 50-second video?
Well, I'm going to make some sound bites for you."
So maybe they started this.
I know that sounds a little childish.
You know what? They started it, Dan!
Gary started it!
But that really is kind of what it is.
It's like, if he's gone a full out attack, which he's been doing,
he's--
from a PR perspective, it's just the worst way possible.
Like, he's really failed in that regard.
I just think, you know, the donors,
the people that were maybe in support of him originally,
they really are kind of like, "Oh, what are you doing, dude?"
You know?
Well, it reminds me, I don't know if it's Sun Tzu or just a Chinese proverb,
but, you know, there's death by a thousand paper cuts.
And the SEC has a finite amount of resources.
I don't know what that number is, but they only have so many employees.
They only have so many dollars in the bank.
They only have so many man-hours per workweek.
And now they're maybe being spread thin like butter over too much bread,
to quote Bilbo Baggins there.
We have this XRP case.
We have this Coinbase case.
We have this Binance.US case.
And then there's a little thing called FTX.
And so maybe at the moment, people are sniffing blood, you know?
Coinbase,
"You know what? Maybe they can't devote 80% of their resources on me."
"Maybe now they can only devote 12% of their resources."
And then he got MEXC, OKX, Gemini and Kraken.
Maybe some of these people are going to start seeing this,
the shift in resources, and say,
"You know what? Now is the time for Jesse Powell to fight after the SEC."
So there could be a little bit of they're spreading themselves too thin
and maybe now's the time to take advantage of that.
I think so. Which is great to see that these guys are,
like Coinbase and all them, going on the kind of offensive now.
I really need to get your two cents on this very, very hot button topic.
And that is Mark versus Elon.
Zuckerberg versus Musk in a cage match.
Who do you have your money on?
Will it happen?
I think it will happen.
- I'm on Elon's side here with this, right? - Okay.
- But I don't know-- - Come on. Let's do it!
he needs some--
- I think he could use some tips and training. - Yes.
I feel like Mark Zuckerberg has definitely got the jiu-jitsu stuff going on.
- Like, he does it like that's a serious-- - He's got the stamina. He's got the skill set.
but he's definitely, like, pretty serious about it, right?
- So, but I think-- - You don't underestimate Iron Man.
Don't underestimate the whale move.
I saw Elon kind of revealing some of his secrets.
Though it's called the whale.
- I guess he just lays on top of-- - Or The Walrus. Yeah.
The Walrus? Is that what he called it?
- The Walrus? - Yeah, yeah, The Walrus. Yeah.
I don't know if that's a play on Elon Tusk.
The Rick and Morty reference.
Maybe it is.
I don't know.
You know what? I think he might try to get some Neuralink hacks
or maybe fill his body with nanobots to give himself like chimpanzee strength.
- There might be something there. - Yeah. There absolutely is.
It's going to be sick. I just know that.
- I'm kind of interested to see it play out, so. - It's up there with moon landing.
I'm going to say it's moon landing. It's below it, but, you know, not by much.
Well, I think it really plays into this whole, I mean, there's obviously this, like,
- I don't even know, social media war, right? - Uh-huh.
The dynamics between Facebook and Twitter are so different
between censorship and kind of freedom of speech.
So it's going to be kind of fun to watch.
The fans of Facebook and the fans of Mark Zuckerberg
and the fans of Elon,
they're kind of just rooting against each other.
It's like a different kind of sport.
It's like a social sport.
It's weird.
I want them to have trainers in the corner.
We can get some celeb-- like The Rock or, you know?
Like, maybe The Rock and Vin Diesel on opposite ends,
maybe we get, like, Dr. Hotez on one side
and like a different doctor with a contrary point on the other, you know?
They're the ones, oh, they'll jam the Q tip up the nose.
They're like, "No no, it's not blood. I'm checking your PCR."
I think Timbo Slice has something here.
I mean, we talked dominance.
We talked about a lot of stuff.
While you guys were talking,
- we kissed 31. - Yeah.
- And we literally, just seconds ago, hit $31,400. - Wow.
- We're right now at $31.2K. - Wow.
We didn't talk about Bitcoin price, Dan.
Where do you see the actual price of Bitcoin getting--
forget dominance.
Where are we going over the next couple of weeks and months
before maybe a pullback and then later on we'll hit that window?
So, how high do we get before the real window starts?
So this is crazy.
Bitcoin's breaking this area I've been watching.
Obviously, probably a lot of people watching.
This was the swing high back here mid-April.
So we had this falling wedge, or falling channel,
hit the target, which was pretty confluent with that resistance area.
So my biggest thing right now that I'm watching,
we have a $42,000--
I know this going to sound crazy.
We have a $42,000 target out of this rising wedge.
This is like a big target.
Obviously, this isn't like an overnight thing.
This isn't even like in a few weeks.
This could take a little bit longer.
But my biggest thing right now,
we broke this area.
I'd like to see on this daily chart, there's still eight hours left,
what kind of separation Bitcoin can get from a close.
Like, you know, we get these pumps,
and on the shorter term,
it just, like, it dies, right?
And there's just a crazy wick right here.
That'll be the first thing I'd be watching if Bitcoin can just close a daily candle
above $30,800.
So that's like $400 away from where it is.
And then what kind of separation from that area can Bitcoin get?
That's probably the biggest thing.
And then I think more importantly,
what's happening on the monthly is something I wanted to point out.
We have the 20-month moving average.
Seven and a half days left.
This is probably the bigger question for me because I'm more of a macro person.
If Bitcoin can close above this 20-month moving average,
this will be huge because the last time Bitcoin has closed a candle above that area
was on its way down in the bull market or bear market in April.
And then if it's happening,
if this move continues,
Bitcoin starts really rallying to or towards this $42,000 target to the upside,
we have a huge indicator about to go off if you just look at this on the monthly.
This is a monthly MACD.
The last time we got a MACD crossing above the signal line
was right before that last bull market.
- So it's looking strong. - Yeah.
I mean these little moves to the upside on the short term,
they really do play into these bigger moves,
and like Deezy was saying,
I mean, maybe everything happens a little bit earlier this time.
And that will be interesting to see.
You know, with all--
all we need is some ridiculous bullish catalyst,
whether it's something crazy good happening with the Coinbase case,
Binance case, the ETF stuff that could push some bullish narrative
whether or not you think it's good for crypto or not,
just some--
some news that is very big from a macro perspective could really just push Bitcoin.
Yeah, we need that Elon-market-buys- for-Tesla Bitcoin moment.
And, you know, we don't know what it is, but, yeah, when it does happen,
yeah, I tend to agree, we're going to see some fireworks,
whether it's the XRP case or, you know, Michael Saylor says,
"I'm buying more," and, you know, it's another $4 billion.
- We'll see what it is, but when it happens, - Yeah.
hey, guys, you better have your seat on the rocket ship.
Everyone's mad I haven't asked you anything about Cardano.
- I love Cardano. - It's okay.
I know you love Cardano as well.
I'll go ahead and put it out here.
I think we hit about $6.60 next bull run.
- Is that your-- oh, for-- - Yeah.
- you're talking about all-time high type of stuff? - And we could go up to nine.
Yeah, we could go up to nine, but, yeah, I'm kind of, you know,
just kind of looking at previous all-time highs and reducing the multiple from $3.10.
I come up with, you know, a little bit maybe more than a 2X, 2.2X.
- Maybe it's a 3X. - Yeah.
Which would be a little above $9.
But I'm coming in at like around a two and a quarter X from previous all-time highs.
I think that's fair.
I think a conservative range--
- I think a good range is $7 to $10. - Okay.
And it could surpass it.
It could fail to get it.
But that's for another video.
- We'll talk about it another time. - Yeah. Maybe that AGIX robot,
maybe it takes over the world and it becomes, you know, $100 a coin.
We don't know what's going to happen.
- Dan, always a great time. - Right. Exactly.
Alright. Everybody, makes sure you go give him a sub.
Watch some of his videos. It's really great stuff.
Thanks, bro. I appreciate you having me on, dude.
Always a great time, Dan.
- One of the best guests of ATB. - Love you, Dan.