All right. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm 10.
Tampa Bay Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskin.
Just after 3:30,
want to give you an update on Edalia.
Still a tropical storm,
but winds are at 70 mph,
probably going to be a hurricany
the time we get to the 5:00 upd.
You can see it's actually really good.
Convection kind of bursted this afternoon.
We got a second burst ongoing rt
now and you're starting to see e
storms fill in out ahead of it.
That's an indication of some
moisture that it should move in.
Big news today is that our hurre
watches went to warnings for Manatee,
Hillsboro, Sarasota, Well,
not Sarasota, excuse me, Hillsb,
Pinellas, Pasco,
Hernando and Citrus Counties.
That basically means we expect
that within about 30-6 hours.
I think the best chance for
hurricane force winds is going o
be right along the immediate co.
So that's the good news.
Now we all have a storm surge warning
for immediate coastal areas andt
includes in and around the Bay ,
the mouth of the Bay,
all the way up in towards
Oldsmar as well too.
Four to seven is what the
Hurricane Center is saying,
but I think that might come
down just a little bit.
Now here's the deal because
it's already stronger.
It will get even stronger
than forecast earlier.
So we're going 85 mile per hour winds.
Well, hurricane this evening,
85, tomorrow morning, cat two,
105 by tomorrow afternoon as it's going by,
here's where we are,
that's about a hundred 120 miles out or so.
Then Wednesday morning it's lanl
around 115 mile per hour winds t
would make it a major hurricane.
Cat 3 or higher we consider maj.
This would be up towards well northwest
of Chiefland unfortunately right near
Cedar Key and they would get a n
of storm surge and especially te
right of wherever the track goe.
All right.
Then it skirts by and goes up for the
Carolinas and then kind of shoots out to sea.
But it would be, you know,
tropical storm situation for
the folks in the Carolinas.
Now the models starting to trena
little back to the left to the .
That would be good news for
the Tampa Bay area.
And I think this should hold a little bit.
So we're going to watch that tr.
Now if you see the forecast
from the Hurricane Center,
these are the winds.
This is 10:00 Tuesday evening.
We're just starting to get thos0
plus mile per hour winds in her.
Then as we go through the overnight hours
tomorrow night into Wednesday morning,
that's when most of this weather
will come through here.
There's the hurricane well offshore right,
hurricane force winds only out to here,
the red right.
We can see some gusts along the coast,
but most areas would see winds 40-50 mile
per hour with a little bit higher gust.
The coastal sections though
by about four or five in
the morning on Wednesday.
Then you got the backside winds.
I think that's when we get the highest wind,
we'll start to get the highest m
surge at that particular time as well.
Not only is it push it up against the coast,
but it pushes it up into the Bay as well.
So even downtown Tampa with a
little bit of a surge there.
Now this is 8:00 AM Wednesday morning
landfall right up near Cedar Ke,
maybe to the West of it.
That's good news.
It goes a little bit further aw.
Now the problem with our forecat
is if this turns to the right,
gets closer to us,
we're going to see more wind,
more rain, more surge.
The trend is going to the
left going away from us.
That's good news.
So hopefully that trend holds af
course we'll keep you updated for it.
Right now you can see it's about four to
seven foot surge for the Bay Area northward.
Again, I think that that would a
probably a little bit on the high side,
three to five would be better,
but certainly it's Hernando in Citrus County.
I think, man Crystal River,
we're going to have a really god
storm surge there in that area.
Could be 7-8 feet of storm surg.
Now here is the forecast model.
We'll go through this afternoon,
a few showers and storms
tomorrow morning at 9:00.
Still good to get preps done,
evacuations, that type of thing.
But 2 to 3:00 here come the outr
rain bands that will start a too
threat at that particular time.
So we could actually get a torno
watch for tomorrow afternoon.
There's the storm on our in
house model way offshore.
This is 8:00 PM Tuesday.
Winds are actually kind of
parallel to the current.
We call it a longshore current d
that would be a beach erosion,
especially for the Suncoast,
Sarasota, Manatee.
Then midnight,
they start turning parallel for Pinellas.
And then right after that,
look,
the center highest winds are right here,
but those are still high winds over here.
But that's when we start to get the surge.
This is 3/4 in the morning,
Wednesday morning that is blowig
water and wind right up into the Bay,
right up onto our beaches.
So you start with some outer
bands tomorrow afternoon with
a small tornado threat.
You then go with parallel winds along the
coast and and some heavy rain at times.
Then you get into the overnight
hours past midnight Wednesday
and you get into the storm surge
issue as it goes towards landfa.
We'll still have some high wind,
but they will be coming down
after sunrise tomorrow morning,
so things will be getting a lite
bit better as we go throughout
the day on Wednesday.
That's lunchtime on Wednesday.
Few scattered showers and stormd
some of those will be actually e
heavy and training over the same area.
But it'll be just kind of fast
moving tropical downpours
more than anything else.
This is just a forecast model, same model.
Now I'm showing you the winds.
7:00 PM Tuesday winds in
the teens to near 20.
Gusts in the low 30s as we get
towards 11:00 PM Tuesday night.
Sustained winds in the mid 20s,
gusts in the 30s to 40 as we
go through overnight midnight.
This is technically 1:00 AM
Wednesday morning, right.
Sustained winds in the 30s gusts to near
50 right along the immediate co,
much less inland.
Look at Orlando Sebring.
Winds in the 20s,
gusts in the 40s while it's
blowing in the mid 30s and gustg
in the 50s for Spring Hill.
And then we have the landfall
that's going to continue to push
off towards the north and the e.
Look at this and this is this wl
change but Horseshoe Beach modes
forecasting 90 mile per hour wis
with 110 mile per hour gusts.
Stay tuned here at 10 Tampa Bay.
We will keep you updated all
the way through the storm.