- [Narrator] Reducing Workplace Bias.
Naive realism is the tendency to assume
that we are completely rational
and have a very objective view of reality.
Naive realism can lead to serious issues
as you over confidently misperceive the reality
of the events in your life.
This can not only lead to disappointments
but it can lead to disastrous misperception of yourself
and terrible decision-making.
While optimism is a useful trait
overconfidence can be disastrous.
The lesson* and meditation will improve your awareness,
making you more sensitive to the world around you
and how you interact with it.
They will help you see reality more clearly.
Perhaps one of the more important biases
refers to how biased we are about our biases.
Naive realism is the belief that we are completely rational
and see the world as it really is
objectively and without any bias.
To the naive realists the facts are obvious
and anyone who disagrees with them is
either uninformed, biased or irrational,
or probably all three.
We are so convinced of our reality
that it is easy to believe
that ours is the only possible version.
We need to understand that our perception
and thought processes are fashioned
by our individual experiences
which makes us fervently believe that we are objective
and that we know the reality.
However, they are your perceptions,
which may or may not reflect in objective truth
and or be shared by others.
Naive realism is a warning for all of us
but especially those in positions
of making critical decisions.
While we might feel we know what's going on
it's always best to be open-minded.
It's hard for us to know when we're being especially naive
and it's likely to come at times
when we feel the most assured about our judgments.
So ironically with greater certainty
comes the need for more open-mindedness.
Moreover when we are convinced we are right,
we will find more justification in finding fault
with opposing or even different views
using the confirmation bias.
Our certainty needs to be defended at all costs.
We will only see the evidence that supports us
and ignore or dismiss evidence that doesn't.
This means ironically,
that the more certain you are of an outcome or a decision
the more potential bias can creep in.
On the other hand if you are in doubt,
you are more likely to be open-minded.
This naive realism can be seen
in your colleagues and teammates.
If you're a leader,
it is important to be aware of this possibility
and find ways of encouraging open-mindedness even when,
especially when a teammate or a group are highly confident.
A useful tactic when feeling very confident
is to assume that your predictions and judgment
turn out to be wrong.
Why did it go wrong?
What factors did you overlook?
What variables did you underestimate?
What did you overestimate and why?
Not only is this a useful practical exercise,
the focus on failure will also likely help you
realistically readjust your predictions
if you have overvalued them.
This exercise can also give you
the basis of a contingency plan
in the event your decision turns out to be not as successful
as you would imagine.
It is reasonable to assume that
people who are generally more open-minded
and not so fixed in their thinking
won't be subject to naive realism.
That's probably true in general
but it doesn't mean that such a person
will never get overconfident consciously or otherwise.
We always have to be mindful
about the possibility that we are overconfident
even if that is an uncomfortable feeling.
Meditation.
"Overconfidence is the way to give your a soul to the devil
an inch at a time," Joe R. Lansdale.
"Overconfidence precedes carelessness," Toba Beta.
"We're generally overconfident in our opinions
and our impressions and judgments," Daniel Kahneman.
"People with a fixed mindset are overconfident,"
Carol Dweck.
There's a difference between confident
and being overconfident.
Overconfidence implies a degree of certainty
that is not warranted.
You might turn out to be right
but never know how close you were to being wrong.
This will almost certainly
impact your confidence in future decisions.
While the accuracy of your judgments and decisions
is important,
your level of confidence in those judgments and decisions
is also vital.
Do you want luck or judgment
to determine your ability to make the right call?
Overconfidence is the way to give your soul to the devil,
one inch at a time.
You can be deceived by outcomes that hide the problems
with your decision-making skill.
Overconfidence will eventually catch up to you.
Overconfidence invites other biases, like confirmation bias
and the availability biases
that only feed an inflated sense of certainty and control.
Be careful of feeling certain.
The devil offers certainty, which is part of his appeal.
Overconfidence breeds carelessness.
There is doubt.
However, you want to address it rather than ignore it.
Ignore it at your peril.
We're generally overconfident in our opinions
and our impressions and judgments.
Once we have made a decision
our minds work to confirm it is the right decision
and look to minimize other possibilities.
You don't want to be naive, you want to be realistic.
You don't want to be careless, you want to be realistic.
You don't want to be overconfident, you want to be careful.
You don't want to sell your soul to the devil,
you want to be thorough.
People with a fixed mindset
are more likely to be overconfident.
Don't have a fixed mindset.
Be flexible.
A flexible mindset is protection against overconfidence.
A flexible mindset is protection against carelessness.
A flexible mindset is protection
against the naive realism bias.
A flexible mindset is protection
against many cognitive biases.
Great leaders are not overconfident.
Great leaders don't have a fixed mindset.
Great leaders appreciate a flexible mindset.
Great leaders are not deceived by apparent certainty.
Great leaders entertain doubt and deal with it
rather than denying it.
Great leaders understand the subtle possibilities of bias,
especially naive realism.
Overconfidence is the way to give your soul to the devil
an inch at at a time.
We're generally overconfident in our opinions
and our impressions and judgements.
Overconfidence precedes carelessness.
People with a fixed mindset are overconfident
Reducing workplace bias.