The long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive against the Russians has been a long time
coming.
The media have been talking for months about a campaign that has never quite got off the
ground.
Over the last few months we have seen small operations, attacks on Russian fuel and ammunition
depots, the occasional scare in Crimea and even incursions into Russian territory, for
example in Belgorod Oblast.
And, of course, the tremendous Ukrainian one in Bakhmut.
But no sign yet of any large-scale counteroffensive.
By early June 2023, Western heavy weapons such as Leopards or American Bradleys had
not yet entered battle.
Now, however, it's here.
It seems the stars are in alignment for Ukrainian action to be on the verge of happening, if
it hasn't already begun.
And so we on VisualPolitik have asked ourselves a few questions:
Why has the Ukrainian counteroffensive been so delayed?
What resources exactly are the Ukrainians counting on to carry it out?
How are the Ukrainian armed force's capabilities improving?
Is Secretary of State Antony Blinken really right when he makes this claim?
And perhaps the most important question of all: What can we expect from the great Ukrainian
counter-attack?
Well, in this video we are going to answer these and other questions.
Get your engines ready because we're starting up.
And do you know what?
The Ukrainians are starting theirs up too.
The casualties, the despair, the suffering, the destruction...
The war is dragging on and right now, has no end in sight.
From the destruction of the cities to the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam.
The damage and destruction do not cease.
The problem is that it will only get more and more difficult to maintain the war effort.
For this reason, Ukraine has been preparing a counteroffensive for months, which in the
best case scenario could mean the end of all the Kremlin's expansionist aspirations in
Ukraine...
And in the worst case, force peace negotiations.
It is one of the four scenarios we outlined for you in a past video about the end of the
war in Ukraine.
However, this counter-offensive has taken much longer than expected.
And the question is, why?
Well, these are the main reasons.
On the one hand, we have what is perhaps the least decisive factor, but which is nonetheless
a key factor: weather.
The weather in 2023 has meant that the Ukrainian soil has taken longer to thaw after the winter,
which means that the mud so characteristic of this area has lasted longer than expected
in the calendar.
And, not surprisingly, the muddy ground can seriously hinder the movement of military
vehicles, something that works against both sides, but particularly against whoever is
in the lead.
There has also been some delay in the training of soldiers.
You see, in recent months, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained by
NATO armies.
Training in order to make Ukrainian troops capable of effectively using Stryker and Bradley
armored combat vehicles, Paladin self-propelled howitzers, Leopard and Challenger tanks, among
other equipment.
Although, we will talk about the weapons later on.
The fact is that this training has been somewhat slower than expected.
Of course, that is not all.
Another factor explaining the delay in the counteroffensive is the arrival of Western
weapons themselves.
In fact, this may be the most important reason.
Much of the military equipment committed by the allies in 2023 has not yet arrived in
Ukraine or is arriving late.
For example, of the nearly 300 tanks that were committed, including Leopard 2s, only
about 100 had been delivered by mid-May.
And of the approximately 700 combat vehicles, such as the Bradleys, only about 300 had arrived.
Logically, the counteroffensive could not take place if the weapons were still on their
way.
It would not make sense.
But it's not just about the weapons, the delivery of ammunition has also been slower than expected.
Here we have to take into account that Ukraine is firing, as a Ukrainian parliamentarian
has revealed, between 6,000 and 8,000 rounds every day.
This means that in order to carry out a counteroffensive in which the ammunition needs are sure to
multiply, the Ukrainians will first have to accumulate enough near the battlefield so
as not to run the risk of running out.
And, keep in mind that in addition to all these delays we have to add another problem:
the enormous challenge of logistics.
In any war, logistics is one of those things that are not usually taken into account, but
which at the moment of truth can determine victory or defeat.
But...
Why has it been such a problem?
Well, because while international deliveries have allowed Ukraine to have a huge and reasonably
well-equipped armed forces...
At the same time, they have also turned it into a tremendously chaotic armed forces with
a myriad of different equipment.
From a logistical point of view, preparing an armed forces assembled on the fly for combat
and in patches between dozens of different countries means having to be able to equip
and repair a Leopard 2, a T-72 or a Bradley at the same time.
And, that is not an easy thing to do.
Everything gets very complicated: from ammunition to parts, including mechanics, transport and
the management of equipment to be sent abroad for repair.
The problem is that this is an operation that you have to have very well set up if you want
the counter-offensive to succeed.
And that, VisualPolitik viewers, takes time.
("The current approach by which each country donates a battery of guns in a piecemeal way
is rapidly turning into a logistical nightmare for Ukrainian forces with each battery requiring
a separate training, maintenance and logistics pipeline."
– Royal United Services Institute, a London defence and security think tank)
(Many of Ukraine's Western weapons await repairs away from the front line.
Artillery pieces must be taken hundreds of miles from the battlefield to be repaired
in NATO territory – The Wall Street Journal) Now, despite the delay of the long-awaited
Ukrainian counteroffensive, what many of you are probably wondering is...
How could this military operation develop?
What are the Ukrainians counting on right now to carry it out?
What are its advantages and what are its weaknesses?
Well, we have already given you some details, but now, in this video we are going to look
at everything in more depth.
Listen up.
(THE UKRAINIAN GAME OF TAG)The great Ukrainian counteroffensive seems to be about to begin.
And this could be the preface:(23 May 2023: Fighting in Russian Border Region Following
Incursion Enters Second Day – The Wall Street Journal)(31 May 2023: Ukraine war comes to
Moscow as drones strike both capitals – Reuters)
The objective of all these operations is twofold:
On the one hand, they contribute to eroding the morale of Russians and Putin's own leadership
in the eyes of his own people.
Even on Russian State television, on the program of propagandist Olga Skabeeva, the government
has been criticized for its poor protection of the border areas.
And then, from a military point of view, it is about forcing the Russians to divert their
attention and perhaps to leave some areas of the front in Ukraine unprotected.
The Ukrainians know that as of today Russia does not have sufficient capacity to armor
1,300 kilometers of frontline, that’s more than 800 miles, and that it will have to choose
very well the places where they believe there is more likelihood of Ukrainian action.
And, of course, in the end this may give some advantage to the Ukrainians.
("The objective is to make the other side believe things that will not happen".
- Joseph Henrotin, researcher at the Centre d'Analyse et de Prévision des Risques Internationaux)
[READ: Center for Analysis and Forecast of International Risks]
What’s more, the Ukrainians have been preparing the ground since at least the beginning of
2023.
And I'm not just talking about the preparation of troops.
For virtually all of 2023 up until now, the Ukrainians have been attacking Russian logistical
facilities on a daily basis in areas far from the front lines, thanks to HIMARS, GLSDB guided
bombs that have a range of up to 150 km or 93 miles, and more recently, Storm Shadow
missiles delivered by the United Kingdom.
Small suicide drones have also been used in some cases.
With all this, the Ukrainians have destroyed numerous Russian fuel and ammunition depots,
command posts, barracks and administrative buildings.
Some even within Russia's own territory.
Now, does this mean that everything is ready, is it enough to receive the committed weapons
and attack a few key targets?
Well, obviously not.
There are many other factors that we have to take into account: from the logistics that
we have already mentioned, to the operational situation of an armed forces like the Ukrainian
one that has suffered terrible attrition.
And that is why the action plan has to take all these issues into account.
Check it out.
(CONTINUE THE FRONT OR BREAK THROUGH IT?)
We have already told you about it in past videos here on VisualPolitik.
The Russian armed forces are in a situation they never expected.
The losses in numbers of men, tanks, armored transport vehicles and even helicopters and
planes have been very significant.
Much more than they ever estimated in Moscow.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are receiving large quantities of military equipment.
For example, while there were old T-72s being shipped in 2022, in 2023 Western tanks are
already arriving.
And alongside them there are also armored vehicles such as the Bradley, which have powerful
anti-tank capabilities.
Remember that although they may not be arriving in large numbers, we are talking about the
delivery of weapons that are no longer remnants of arsenals, but weapons that would be used
by the US or UK armies themselves if they were to enter a war.
We are talking about a huge catalog of self-propelled howitzers, NATO-standard munitions, long-range
air-to-surface missiles, such as the British Storm Shadow, and even Sea Sparrow surface-to-air
missiles to shoot down Russian cruise missiles and fighters.
And, as you all know, even this possibility is now on the table:
(Ukraine's Allies Could Give Away 50 F-16s.
That's Exactly How Many F-16s Ukraine Needs Right Now – Forbes)
But...
The question is, exactly how could all this equipment be used?
[By the way, regarding the F-16, we will publish a specific video here on Visualpolitik soon,
so don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already done so].
Let's see, logically, our goal with this video is not to guess the concrete plans of the
offensive.
However, judging from the weapons Ukraine is receiving and the current situation on
the front, we can get an idea of how this action might unfold.
What we are going to look at below is a possibility based on the opinions of military experts
and intelligence reports.
VisualPolitik viewers, the Ukrainians are receiving a huge and reasonably modern ground
force, with many analysts pointing to the likelihood that the counteroffensive will
most likely strike at some point highly fortified by the Russians, with the aim of trying to
break the front in two.
For example, it is reasonable to think that the Ukrainians could use their Leopards and
their Western troop transport vehicles to try to break through Russian defenses in areas
near Melitopol, Berdyansk or even Mariupol, instead of focusing so much on the Donbass
as they have done so far.
And that attack could start in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In fact, the Russians themselves are concerned about this possibility.
Check it out.
(27 April 2023: Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack
The anti-tank ditches near Ukraine's occupied southeastern town of Polohy stretch for 30
km (19 miles).
Behind are rows of concrete "dragon's teeth" barricades.
Further back are defensive trenches where Russia's troops will be positioned.
– Reuters) Yes, we are talking about a line of fortifications
that Russia has been preparing for the past few months, especially in southern Ukraine.
Look at this map.
All that line of dots that you are seeing on the screen are Russian fortifications that
are already identified.
Let's just say that the Russians are aware that their biggest nightmare may be precisely
the breakthrough of the front in the area of Melitopol, Berdyansk or Mariupol, and that
is why they have done everything possible to fill this space with obstacles, mines and
trenches.
Including the famous "dragon's teeth".
Surely those of you who have played Call of Duty are familiar with this.
The fact is that we are talking about common strategies from the Second World War that
are now making a comeback.
Although, dragon's teeth can also be seen today in South Korea along its border with
North Korea.
Some larger, more modern and powerful tanks can pass through the "dragon's teeth", but
normally in these cases military engineer teams are used as an advance party.
Once the terrain is secured with artillery, these teams take on such important tasks as
clearing minefields, opening roads, building bridges and yes, also destroying dragon's
teeth and trenches.
Such equipment is essential in any military offensive and that is why the most modern
Western armies attach enormous importance to it.
However, in this case, it is not clear to what extent the Ukrainians have such corps
with sufficient means and preparation.
In other words, all these obstacles will not be an impediment for the Ukrainians to pass,
but rather a hindrance, a delay that could leave Zelenskiy's troops exposed for longer
than recommended in hostile territory.
No one said the counteroffensive would be easy, and in fact this explains why the preparation
has taken longer than estimated.
So, why, despite all these drawbacks, do many analysts point out that the Ukrainians may
have as their main objective to try to break the Russian lines through this area?
Well, basically for one reason: Crimea.
Ukraine could use the Western heavy weapons received recently to break the Russian front
in two, thus separating Crimea from Donbass.
This would allow it, on the one hand, to hinder Russian supplies, and on the other hand, to
leave Crimea much more exposed.
In addition, territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast would allow the Ukrainians
to keep the Crimean bridge linking the peninsula to Russia across the Kerch Strait within range
with less scarce and less expensive precision weapons.
The destruction of this bridge and a hypothetical break of the Russian front in two would put
Crimea in a situation of extreme vulnerability, and this could force the Russians to sit down
to negotiate.
Negotiations that could result in a total withdrawal from Ukraine, or a partial one
with the exception of Crimea itself, which could ultimately be recognized as Russian.
Now, hold on a minute.
Let's not kid ourselves.
If these plans are ultimately carried out during the counteroffensive, or others like
them, it is quite possible that the cost in lives for the Ukrainians could be counted
in the thousands, or even, tens of thousands of casualties.
The question is, is there any way to avoid a new bloodletting, new Bakhmuts along a much
larger front?
Well, there certainly is.
One way could be to deliver to Kyiv the US Army's long-awaited Tactical Missile System,
missiles that can accurately engage targets up to 300 kilometers or 186 miles away.
Nevertheless, Washington does not seem willing, at least for now, to put this system in Ukrainian
hands.
And the question is, why?
Well, let's take a look.
(THE LAST ACE UP THE SLEEVE?)
The United States has been the largest donor of arms to Ukraine by far.
To date, US taxpayers have spent nearly $40 billion in military assistance to Ukraine
since the invasion began.
To put this in perspective, we are talking about 3.5 million dollars EVERY HOUR.
A gigantic amount of resources that has nourished the huge catalog of delivered weapons that
we have already talked about at length both here on VisualPolitik and in our Patreon publication
"The Weekly Snapshot".
By the way, if you join our Patreon community you will be able to keep up to date with this
bulletin, receive other rewards and also help us to keep improving.
We’ll leave all the info in the description.
Well, the fact is that there is one weapon that continues to stay out of reach: the U.S.
Army Tactical Missile System.
Washington – at least for now – does not even want to hear about delivering these missiles
despite the fact that the Ukrainians have been asking for them for a year now.
Now, why are they so reluctant to hand over this weapon?
Well, basically to avoid escalating the conflict even further.
That is the main explanation.
But...
How on earth could these missiles escalate EVEN FURTHER a conflict in which we have already
seen even ground incursions into Russian territory itself?
Well, the Pentagon believes that, if necessary, Ukraine could use these missiles against Russian
territory.
This could lead to the dreaded nuclear escalation.
Washington does not want to risk that possibility under any circumstances.
So far they have held back any temptation from Moscow in this regard, but of course,
a direct attack on Russia could change everything.
The risk certainly exists.
And yes, I know what many of you who are more knowledgeable are thinking.
But Josh, Ukraine already has the British Storm Shadow missiles, which reach targets
at more than 250 kilometers distance.
Well, yes...
But at the same time no.
The difference is that the US system can be used from portable launchers that are easy
to hide in any nook and cranny, while the Storm Shadow equipment is much more cumbersome
and risky to use because they can only be launched from aircraft.
In fact, as advocated by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defense minister, US missiles
would allow the Ukrainians to safely hit most Russian command posts and weapons depots.
And not only that, these missiles could even reach the defenses on the Crimean isthmus
or the bridge separating this region from Russia at the Kerch Strait.
We are talking about missiles that would also be difficult to intercept, since they travel
at three times the speed of sound, which could turn them into a nightmare for the Russians.
And so, Washington's flat refusal to deliver these missiles raises questions about whether
the United States might not really want a decisive Ukrainian victory, one that would
be a military humiliation for Russia.
Be that as it may, what is clear is that we are about to experience one of the most critical
moments of this war.
But until that moment comes, it's your turn for some questions: do you think the Ukrainians
will manage to split the Russian front in two?
Will Crimea be a real priority target or, on the contrary, nothing more than a distraction?
Will the US end up handing over its long-range missile system?
Leave us your opinions here below in the comments.
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Once again thank you very much for watching.
All the best and see you next time.