JONATHAN LEMIRE IS STILL WITH
US.
MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR MIKE BARNICLE
JOINS THE CONVERSATION.
JOINING US NOW, PENTAGON PRESS
SECRETARY, RETIRED REAR ADMIRAL
JOHN KIRBY.
GOOD TO HAVE YOU THIS HOUR, SIR.
>> ADMIRAL, THANK YOU FOR BEING
WITH US.
SO WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE?
WE READ THE NEWSPAPERS, WE SEE
WHERE THEY SAY THIS WAR IS
GOING.
OBVIOUSLY THOUGH WE LEAN IN A
LITTLE BIT MORE WHEN WE GET
PENTAGON REPORTS ON WHAT THE
PENTAGON'S ASSESSMENT OF THE
FIGHTING IS.
WHAT'S IT LOOK LIKE RIGHT NOW IN
UKRAINE?
>> I WOULD SAY KIND OF BREAK IT
UP INTO THREE PARTS, JOE.
IN THE NORTH RUSSIANS ARE
CLEARLY STALLED.
WHAT WE'RE SEEING THEM DO IS DIG
IN AND MAKE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS,
AS YOU RIGHTLY REPORTED
UKRAINIANS ARE FIGHTING BACK.
THEY'RE ACTUALLY TAKING
TERRITORY BACK IN THE NORTH.
IN THE EAST IS RUSSIANS SEEM TO
BE PRIORITIZING THE DONBAS AREA.
THEY'RE PUTTING MORE RESOURCES
IN THERE.
THEY'RE GOING ON MORE OFFENSIVE
OPERATIONS THERE.
WE THINK THEY'RE TRYING TO CUT
THE UKRAINIAN FORCES OFF IN THE
EAST SO THEY CAN'T COME TO THE
AID OF THEIR COLLEAGUES MORE TO
THE WEST.
AND THEN IN THE SOUTH THE
RUSSIANS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
STALLED NOW.
THERE'S BEEN A BIT OF A BACK AND
FORTH DOWN SOUTH.
ORIGINALLY THE RUSSIANS WERE
REALLY MAKING MOST OF THEIR PROGRESS DOWN THERE, INTO
PROGRESS DOWN THERE, INTO
KHERSON, ON TO MYKOLAIV AND
MARIUPOL.
KHERSON WAS IN RUSSIAN HANDS AND
NOW IT IS CONTESTED.
THEY'RE TRYING TO CLAW IT BACK.
>> PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY HAS SAID
HE DESPERATELY NEEDS PLANES,
TANKS, ANTI-MISSILE AND
ANTI-SHIP SYSTEMS, SUGGESTING
MARIUPOL MAY FALL IN THE NEXT
FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS IF THERE IS
NOT SUPPORT.
IS THERE A POSSIBILITY TO SAVE
MARIUPOL?
>> I WILL TELL YOU WHAT, JOE,
THE SUPPORT IS GOING AND IT IS
GOING VERY FAST.
IN FACT, OF THE $800 MILLION
THAT THE PRESIDENT JUST SIGNED
OUT NOT LONG AGO, WE HAVE
ALREADY DELIVERED FOUR SHIPMENTS
ON THAT TRANCHE ALONE AND MORE
COMING IN.
IN FACT, ANOTHER ONE ARRIVED
TODAY.
IT IS NOT JUST THE UNITED
STATES, JOE.
OTHER NATIONS ARE ALSO
CONTRIBUTING SECURITY
ASSISTANCE, MATERIALS, WEAPON
SYSTEMS, MISSILES AND ALL OF
THAT STUFF FLOWING IN THERE.
WHEN WE WERE IN EUROPE JUST LAST
WEEK SECRETARY AUSTIN GOT A
CHANCE TO MEET WITH HIS
COUNTERPART, SO DID SECRETARY
BLINKEN.
THEY TALKED ABOUT ADDITIONAL AID
THEY WANT, MORE MATERIAL, MORE
SYSTEMS, AND WE'RE WORKING HARD
TO GET IT TO THEM AS FAST AS WE
CAN.
MARIUPOL IS UNDER SIEGE, YOU ARE
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
IT HAS BEEN UNDER SIEGE FOR OVER
A WEEK AND THE UKRAINIANS KEEP
FIGHTING BACK VERY, VERY HARD.
WE ARE DOING THE BEST WE CAN TO
GET THEM THE KIND OF SYSTEMS
THEY NEED IN THAT FIGHT.
>> SO, ADMIRAL, JUST TO SORT OF
CONFIRM WHAT YOU ARE SAYING
ABOUT THE MACHINERY IS FLOWING
IN THERE.
>> YES.
>> IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY NEED TO
TRY AND PUSH BACK WHAT SEEMS TO
BE A DESPERATE EFFORT TO SAVE
MARIUPOL ACTUALLY HAPPENING?
I MEAN THERE ARE SOME HIGH-LEVEL
OFFICIALS TELLING US LIKE THE
POLS HAVE CERTAIN EQUIPMENT BUT
THEY'RE WAITING FOR THE U.S. TO
GIVE WORD.
IS THERE A COORDINATION PROBLEM
WITH THIS?
HELP ME.
>> IT IS A GREAT QUESTION, MIKA.
WE ARE HELPING TO COORDINATE THE
DELIVERY OF WEAPONS AND SYSTEMS
OTHER NATIONS ARE PROVIDING.
THESE ARE LETHAL SYSTEMS,
MISSILES, ANTI-TANK MISSILES,
SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES THAT
AREN'T OURS BUT WE'RE HELPING TO
COORDINATE THE DELIVERY INTO
UKRAINE AND IT IS GETTING IN
EVERY SINGLE DAY.
WE TALKED TO THE UKRAINIANS LAST
WEEK ABOUT WHAT THEIR NEEDS ARE
AND WE'RE DOING THE BEST WE CAN
TO FILL THEIR NEEDS.
WE ARE TRYING TO FOCUS, FROM THE
UNITED STATES' PERSPECTIVE, WE
ARE TRYING TO FOCUS ON THE
THINGS THEY USE MOST EFFECTIVELY
AND THEY KNOW HOW TO USE.
IT DOESN'T REQUIRE MORE
TRAINING, THEY CAN PUT THEM IN
THE FIELD AND USE THEM.
JAVELINS AND SMALL ARMS AND
AMMUNITION GOES AND THEY'RE
USING THOSE THINGS VERY
EFFECTIVELY.
>> WHAT ABOUT THE COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS?
.
>> WE EXPECT IT WILL CONTINUE.
WE ARE AGAIN WORKING VERY HARD
WITH OTHER NATIONS TO HELP
FACILITATE THE MOVEMENT ON THE
GROUND OF THE THINGS THAT
THEY'RE SHIPPING IN CLOSE BY TO
UKRAINE.
WE'RE BEING VERY CAREFUL ABOUT
HOW WE'RE MOVING THOSE THINGS IN
SO THAT THEY CAN GET TO THE
HANDS OF THE UKRAINIANS AS
QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE, BUT WE HAVE
A COORDINATION CENTER SET UP IN
EUROPE THAT WE'RE -- IN POLAND
WE ARE WORKING TO TRY TO HELP
COORDINATE THOSE DELIVERIES.
>> ADMIRAL, GOOD MORNING.
A COUPLE OF COMPETING THEORIES
OUT THERE, AS YOU KNOW, ABOUT
THE STRATEGY NOW FOR THE RUSSIAN
MILITARY, ONE BEING THAT
VLADIMIR PUTIN DIGS IN DESPITE
THE FACT HE HAS BEEN STYMIED BY
THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY AND
CIVILIANS WITH THE HELP OF
AMERICAN ARMS.
OTHERS ARE THAT HE PULLS BACK,
FOCUSES ON THE EAST AND PERHAPS
LAUNCHES MISSILE STRIKES FROM
RUSSIA INTO UKRAINIAN CITIES.
DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF WHERE HIS
MIND IS RIGHT NOW OR AT LEAST
WHERE THE STRATEGY OF THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY MAY BE?
>> IT IS VERY DIFFICULT, WILLIE,
TO KNOW SPECIFICALLY WHAT
MR. PUTIN IS GOING TO DO ON A
DAY-TO-DAY BASIS.
ALL I CAN DO IS TELL YOU WHAT
WE'RE SEEING HAPPEN, AND WHAT
WE'RE SEEING IS THEY'RE TAKING
DEFENSIVE POSITIONS IN THE
NORTH.
THEY DON'T APPEAR TO BE WILLING
OR ABLE TO MOVE ON KYIV ANYMORE.
THEY'RE JUST KIND OF DIGGING IN
AROUND THE CITY.
AS I SAID, THE UKRAINIANS ARE
FIGHTING BACK.
WHAT WE'RE SEEING, WILLIE, IS A
PRIORITIZATION.
THEY PUBLICLY ADMITTED THIS.
WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO, THEY WERE
STARTING TO PRIORITIZE THE
DONBAS AREA, THE EASTERN PART OF
UKRAINE, WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN
FIGHTING NOW OVER FOR EIGHT
YEARS.
NOW, IT IS HARD TO KNOW, WILLIE,
WHETHER THAT'S GOING TO BE THE
END ALL, THAT'S GOING TO BE THE
SUM TOTAL OF WHAT HE WANTS, IS
TO JUST CARVE OUT THE EAST OR IS
HE USING THAT AS A NEGOTIATING
TACTIC.
CAN HE MAKE PROGRESS IN THE EAST
AND THEN SIT AT THE TABLE WITH
SOME SORT OF LEVERAGE?
WE DON'T KNOW.
IT IS NOT REALLY CLEAR.
WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT HE REALLY
BLUNDERED IN THE WHOLE WAR
EFFORT AND THE INITIAL EFFORTS
TO GO AFTER KYIV CLEARLY HAVE
FAILED.
>> ADMIRAL, COULD YOU TALK A BIT
MORE ABOUT THE SUPPLY LINE THAT
YOU WERE JUST REFERENCING OF
EQUIPMENT INTO UKRAINIAN?
>> SURE.
>> UKRAINE, OBVIOUSLY A COUNTRY
AT WAR.
THE DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY AND
DANGER IN MOVING THIS EQUIPMENT
ALONG THE LINE?
>> WE HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL,
MIKE, AS YOU MIGHT IMAGINE.
A LOT OF THESE THINGS ARE BEING
FLOWN IN NEARBY TO COORDINATION
CENTERS LIKE I WAS TALKING ABOUT
WITH MIKA, AND THEN THEY ARE
TRUCKED INTO UKRAINE AND THEY
ARE TRUCKED IN ON VARIOUS
DIFFERENT ROUTES AND THOSE
ROUTES VARY FROM DAY TO DAY, AS
YOU MIGHT EXPECT.
WE WANT TO BE VERY CAREFUL HERE
TO PROTECT THE OPERATIONAL
SECURITY OF THIS MOVEMENT.
IT IS MET BY UKRAINIAN DRIVERS.
THEY TAKE IT INTO THE COUNTRY,
THEY DELIVER IT TO DEPOTS AND TO
SITES WHERE THE UKRAINIAN ARMED
FORCES CAN THEN PULL ON THAT
MATERIAL TO GO AND USE ON THE
BATTLEFIELD.
IT IS A VERY, VERY DYNAMIC
PROCESS, MIKE, YOU MIGHT
IMAGINE.
IT IS CONSTANTLY VARYING.
WE ARE CONSTANTLY LOOKING AT IT.
WE WANT TO PROTECT THOSE FLOWS
AS MUCH AS WE CAN.
NOW, MIKE, WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE
RUSSIANS TRY TO STRIKE THESE
ROUTES YET.
THEY HAVE THEIR HANDS FULL JUST
STAYING ON THE DEFENSE IN THE
NORTH AND TRYING TO MAKE SOME
PROGRESS IN THE EAST, BUT WE ARE
CONSTANTLY WATCHING FOR THAT.
>> SO, ADMIRAL, WE HAVE ANOTHER
RETIRED ADMIRAL WITH US WHO HAS A QUESTION FOR YOU, RETIRED FOUR
A QUESTION FOR YOU, RETIRED FOUR
STAR NAVY ADMIRAL AND FORMER
NATO SUPREME LEADER ADMIRAL
STAVRIDIS.
>> SO FAR NO ONE HAS CALLED
EITHER OF US GENERAL, WHICH
HAPPENS TOO MUCH.
I KNOW MY GOOD FRIEND JOHN KIRBY
HAS EXPERIENCED THAT AS WELL.
GOOD TO SEE YOU.
>> YOU TOO, SIR.
>> MY QUESTION WOULD BE TWO
FOLD.
ONE IS CAN YOU JUST GIVE US A
SENSE FROM THE PENTAGON'S
VIEWPOINT, WHY ARE THE RUSSIANS
FAILING?
WHAT ARE THE FAILURE POINTS
HERE, THINKING PERHAPS THERE'S
EXPLOITABLE INFORMATION THERE
OVER TIME?
AND, SECONDLY, ADMIRAL, JUST A
QUICK COMMENT ON POTENTIAL USE
OF A CHEMICAL WEAPON, ARE WE
STILL SEEING KIND OF FLICKERS OF
THAT?
THANK YOU.
>> YES, SIR.
IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU.
LISTEN, ON THE
CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS I
WOULD TELL YOU WE HAVEN'T SEEN
ANY INDICATIONS THEY PLAN TO
IMMINENTLY USE THOSE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN
INDICATIONS THAT THOSE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS ARE ACTUALLY IN UKRAINE
YET.
IT IS SOMETHING AS YOU WELL
KNOW, SIR, WE ARE WATCHING VERY,
VERY CLOSELY EVERY DAY BECAUSE
IT WOULD ESCALATE THE LEVEL OF
VIOLENCE IN UKRAINE TO A DEGREE
WHERE THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE
CLEAR THAT THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY WOULD HAVE TO RESPOND.
ON YOUR FIRST QUESTION, BOY,
THERE'S A LOT THERE.
I WOULD TELL YOU A COUPLE OF
THINGS.
FIRST OF ALL, WE THINK THEY
OVERESTIMATED THEIR OWN ABILITY
TO MANEUVER AND TO TAKE AND HOLD
GROUND.
THEY UNDERESTIMATED THE
UKRAINIAN'S ABILITY AND
WILLINGNESS TO FIGHT FOR THEIR
COUNTRY AND FIGHT, QUITE
FRANKLY, AND YOU KNOW THIS
BECAUSE YOUERE OVER THERE,
SIR, THEY UNDERESTIMATED THE
DEGREE TO WHICH THE UKRAINIANS
HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY AND VERY,
VERY PROFESSIONALLY TRAINED OVER
THE LAST EIGHT YEARS TO USE
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE FIELD.
THAT'S GETTING LOST A LOT IN THE
DISCUSSION.
I THINK ALSO THEY HAVE HAD
SIGNIFICANT LOGISTICS AND
SUSTAINMENT PROBLEMS.
THEY ARE STILL HAVING FUEL
PROBLEMS.
THEY'RE HAVING TROUBLE FEEDING
THEIR TROOPS.
DEFINITELY THEY DID NOT PLAN FOR
A VERY DYNAMIC WAY OF SUSTAINING
THEIR EFFORTS ON THE GROUND.
NUMBER FIVE HERE IS THEY AREN'T
OPERATING JOINTLY.
THEY DON'T COORDINATE BETWEEN
AIR AND GROUND AND MARITIME THE
WAY WE DO IN THE UNITED STATES
MILITARY, AND SO WE'RE PICKING
UP LOTS OF TENSIONS BETWEEN
COMMANDERS BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT
TALKING WITH ONE ANOTHER,
THEY'RE NOT COORDINATING THEIR
OPERATIONS.
LASTLY, IF I MAY, AND IT IS A
LONG LIST, IT IS JUST THE
MORALE.
IT IS A LARGELY CONSCRIPT FORCE.
THEY WERE NOT PROPERLY PREPARED
AND TRAINED FOR THIS OPERATION.
MANY WERE LIED TO, DIDN'T EVEN
KNOW THEY WERE GOING TO INVADE
UKRAINE, SO THEY'RE HAVING
LEADERSHIP AND MORALE, UNIT
COHESION PROBLEMS ON THE GROUND
EVERY SINGLE DAY.
>> ADMIRAL, AND I GUESS I SHOULD
SPECIFY, ADMIRAL KIRBY, IT IS
JONATHAN LEMIRE.
TWO QUICK ONES.
CAN YOU DIFFERENT US A SENSE OF
THE MANPOWER RUSSIA HAS RIGHT
NOW?
HAVE WE SEEN A PULL OUT OF
FORCES IN UKRAINE?
GIVE US AN UPDATE ON THE BATTLE
FOR THE SKY.
THERE'S NO AIR SUPERIORITY
ESTABLISHED ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER, IS THAT RIGHT?
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
THE AIRSPACE IS CONTESTED.
THE RUSSIANS HAVE NOT ACHIEVED
AIR SUPERIORITY.
THIS IS INTERESTING BECAUSE THEY
ACTUALLY HAVE SURFACE-TO-AIR
MISSILE COVERAGE LARGELY FROM
SYSTEMS BASED IN RUSSIA AND IN
BELARUS THAT BASICALLY BLANKET
THE WHOLE COUNTRY, BUT THE
UKRAINIANS HAVE BEEN SO NIMBLE
AND SO CREATIVE WITH THE WAY
THEY USE THE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS
AVAILABLE TO THEM THEY'VE BEEN
ABLE TO CONTEST THE SKIES.
AS FOR THE NUMBERS, AGAIN, YOU
KNOW, WELL NORTH OF 150,000
TROOPS CONTRIBUTED TO THIS
EFFORT ALREADY AND ARE IN
UKRAINE.
WE HAVE NOT SEEN THEM WITHDRAW
OUTSIDE UKRAINE.
NOW, WE HAVE SEEN SOME EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT THE RUSSIANS
ARE TRYING TO REINFORCE AND MAKE
UP FOR SOME OF THEIR LOSSES BY
BRINGING TROOPS, FOR INSTANCE,
THEY HAVE IN GEORGIA AND
BRINGING THEM INTO THE FIGHT.
WE ARE WATCHING THAT CLOSELY,
TOO, BUT IT IS VERY APPARENT TO
US THAT THE RUSSIANS KNOW THAT
MANPOWER IS GOING TO BE A FACTOR
FOR THEM.
THEY ARE LOSING SOLDIERS EVERY
SINGLE DAY.
AS I SAID TO ADMIRAL STAVRIDIS,