Colorado's statewide snowpack
is off to a terrific start,
with the state snowpack levels
sitting at about 120% of their season
to date averages as of this week.
But we're only about halfway
through the snow season,
so we spoke last week with Colorado
assistant state climatologist Dr.
Becky Bollinger for more about
the fast start to the winter
season in the mountains and what
it means for the spring,
summer and beyond, we're
now joined by Colorado assistant state
climatologist Dr. Becky Bollinger.
From Colorado State University, Dr.
Bollinger has always thanks so
much for joining us on 90 plus.
Thanks for having me, Chris.
All right. So I guess we're,
I guess, the big overall.
The question I would have for
you is where do we stand on
snowpack so far this season?
Yeah. Depending on where
you look around the state,
we've got some excellent numbers,
particularly everywhere West of the divide.
Most of our basins are looking at
above average for this time of year.
We've had consistently good
snowpack in the Yampa White Basin,
the Northern Rockies,
around the Colorado headwaters and that
main I-70 corridor and in the Gunnison Basin.
Things about a month ago were
probably a little bit lower.
In the San Juan Mountains
in southwest Colorado.
But these recent storms have really
helped to boost them to above
average and east of the divide.
The S Platte Basin,
all the all the Northern Mountains
that that feed to northeast Colorado
have been doing pretty good.
The mountains that fade into
the Arkansas Basin are a little
bit below average right now.
So when we're looking at,
you know our our Southern Mountains
that that feed into their,
you know,
around the Buena Vista area and
Leadville and and into that and
the Sangre de Cristos are a little
bit below average, but not too far.
And so really when we take
a statewide average,
especially considering that the past few
storms we've had in the past couple of weeks,
we're in a really good situation.
And you know,
we're really starting out at the
critical time period where you know,
if you're above average in November,
you know that's good but it's
not really a big deal.
But now we're getting to the point where
when you're above average or below average,
really it's a big deal.
And so being above average at
this time is is really critical.
Certainly sounds like overall good
news and I know heading into this
winter season there was certainly some
concern about Ilania specifically eight
third straight lania, not a great
precedent for that here in Colorado.
But so far knock on wood,
we we've defied I would say expectations.
Is that safe to say?
Yeah, I would say especially if you compare
it to the last two La Nina falls we've had,
we expect you know kind of warm and
dry conditions for the fall going
into the early part of winter.
And that is not what we saw for this fall.
We've seen consistently cooler temperatures
for pretty much all of November and December.
We've had overall cool anomalies
for most parts of the state,
which is definitely not what we were
expecting given that third law, nenia.
And we've had definitely more snow
activity than we were initially expecting,
especially if you look in the southern
part of the state typically that
La Nina pattern may tend to favor.
More snow for the Northern Rockies,
which we have seen,
but we've seen some activity pretty
much on the West side of the continental
divide everywhere across the state.
So so this is a time where it's
good to be wrong.
Yeah, certainly I we're all happy
about that, I would imagine.
So I thought so you said was quite
interesting. So in November,
obviously you know that that number
whether we're above or below average,
it can move a lot more because there's
a lot less snowpack to compare it to.
But here in the month of January,
we're starting to get closer
and closer towards that median,
that peak for a Colorado snowpack
believe is in early April, correct.
And so we're really starting to build
up some more important snowpack numbers.
How important is?
This kind of recent stretch,
you mentioned those last two to three weeks.
We've been really busy.
How important is it for us to
get that big snowpack here in the
last couple of weeks?
Yeah, I'd say it's huge.
It's, you know, think of it,
I've got my football brain on,
but think of it as football.
We've we've just finished the first
half and half time is over and we're
tied or a little bit ahead, right.
We saw a lot of game to go,
but we're in a good situation
and so that's really important.
If we were behind on the snowpack now,
you can still make up those deficits,
but it's a lot harder especially because
we normally get a lot of really.
Big snows and so getting the
big snows and also making up a
deficit is really challenging.
But when you are at average or above
average that the goal now is to keep
moving that train forward on on that
pattern where you're getting big
events every week or every couple
of weeks to make sure that that we
keep up with that that line as we
move towards the peak in early April.
I guess looking at eastern Colorado as well,
that's been part of the state that's been,
let's say, the most drought
impacted heading into the winter,
specifically in northeastern Colorado.
But we did have that recent Blizzard
which dumped up to as much as an inch,
inch and 1/4 where the precipitation
on that part of the state.
We've seen consistent
snowstorms out there as well.
Is that making a difference on the
drought situation there or not so much?
It's easy to really chisel away at some
of those deficits during the dry time
of year if you're getting big events.
So in particularly when we're
looking at Northeast Colorado or
even the Northern Front Range,
our average precipitation this
time of year is not that much.
And so if you get below average,
it's not as much of a concern because
you can't get that much into a deficit.
But our below average could have been from,
you know, times wetter times.
Now we're we don't get much on average.
So when you're getting these big
wet snows that are coming through
and bringing a lot of moisture,
that's going to make the numbers
look like well above average and
that could be a little bit of a.
It could misguide you to think that
situation is a lot better than it is.
Although I would say in this case that
because some of the storms we've got
have had so much moisture with them that
they are going to make a difference.
When we're talking the drought situation
for parts of northeast Colorado and
the Northern Front Range, what does
this mean for the spring?
So let's say we've gotten off to a
good start here through January.
Is there a statistical comparison
as to what that might mean for
mountain snowfall in February,
March and April as we head into kind
of the more peak times of the year?
Be so nice if there was a connection
that we could rely on that when we say
this is what's happened in January,
so we know this what's happened,
this is what will happen in February,
March and April. Unfortunately,
Colorado does not like to be predictable
or give us any indication of what's
going to happen in the future months.
I would say as we are exiting out of this
law ninia pattern that will be better
news for areas of the Eastern plains.
Um, that generally tend to miss out on events
during the La Nina in late winter and spring.
And so now that we won't have to
worry about that linear pattern,
you know, it's really anybody's
guess what what could happen.
We know that you know,
we're where we're starting
off right now is really good,
but we need to continue that to really
keep ourselves in a decent situation.
And So what that is going to mean is
that particularly for the mountains,
we need these big events to continue.
We need that active.
Pattern where we're getting regular
friends moving through and bringing
storms especially if there was another
atmospheric river too that that comes
onshore and and dumps a lot of moisture
that that tail end of that can help us
in the long run and and that would be good.
And then as we get into spring
particularly for the lower elevations,
you know we want to see those March snows,
those April snows,
we we don't want to transition
to hot temperatures.
We want that wet pattern to
really migrate over the lower
elevations as we get into spring,
especially those areas that have missed out.
Now we're looking at Southeast
Colorado as being a an area of concern.
And so these are the things that that
we're really going to need to keep all,
all of our state in a healthy situation.
I guess one
question that comes from all that to me
too is I know there's a bit of a saying
sometimes that snow breeds more snow,
rain breeds more rain,
that perhaps that the evaporation
from the snow and that there's
a bit more relative humidity.
You get what I'm saying here.
A. Do you believe in that?
And B if so, would that matter
for the lower elevations,
in particular for the upcoming spring?
You know what, it is something
that I believe mostly anecdotally
because it does seem that when
we get into a persistent pattern,
it's hard to get out of that pattern.
So once we get in this pattern of
cold and snow and storm activity,
it seems like we you can get kind of
stuck there and it takes more to kind of
switch that pattern to something else.
And so in my head, I think, yes,
there's a relationship there
that when it's dry.
It's easier to stay dry, and when it's wet,
it's easier to continue to get
those that wet pattern to continue.
Obviously,
at some point it switches the the
challenges is that we have a hard
time finding that in the data,
which means it's really hard to
officially connect those puzzle pieces
and assign some predictability to it.
So that you can say,
I know this is going to happen
this way and this is what's going
to happen to change it.
We unfortunately don't have those answers,
but I do think when we're in this pattern.
It's a little bit easier to
stay in this pattern.
10 years any other big climate
things one way or the other?
We touched on snowpack,
we touched on drought.
Anything else big on the local
weather scene or climate scene
that you're keeping close tabs on?
I would say what are the temperature
anomalies going to look as we go
through January and February especially
for a lot of areas of our state.
February has historically been
colder than average and so we've
seen this interesting pattern of
of colder in the winters. You know,
it's it's our persistence of cold in.
November and December going to
continue through the winter.
It would be quite notable if it did.
And so those are the kind
of things I'm looking at.
But I'm also overall expecting
that southern Colorado has
unfortunately seen the pattern of.
Kind of peaking on snowpack too early,
warming up too early,
melting that snowpack too fast.
Whereas in northern, you know,
Northern Colorado we tend to hold
on to spring in terms of snow and
cold a little bit longer and you
know is that something that that's
going to continue and pan out.
You know,
I as anything's a possibility when
it comes to weather in our state,
but those are kind of the things that
I'll be looking at over the next few months.
Well, Doctor Becky Bollinger,
we appreciate a few minutes of
your time and letting us some of
your expertise and insight about
Colorado's always finicky weather,
I think it's safe to say.
But so far so good.
Here on the winter season,
I think is the top line take away, right?
Yes, absolutely. Good news.
We'll keep reading that on.
But thanks so much for your time
today and again and for giving
us some of your valued insights.
Absolutely. Thanks for having me.