KOFI ANNAN: Over the last few years,
we have seen concerted action to tackle poverty and inequality
across our planet.
The international community came together
to agree on the Millennium Development Goals
to spread prosperity, improve health, and put
our world on a path towards sustainability.
But while in many areas we have seen progress,
climate change threatens to reverse these improvements
and dash our hopes for a fairer and sustainable world.
We are now seeing a growing awareness
of the threats of climate change,
and need to reduce emissions of the heat-trapping gases that
are causing it.
Science tells us that preventing the most severe impact
of climate change needs action now
to cut greenhouse gas emissions by around 80% by 2050.
But even this radical action will not
prevent a rise in global temperatures,
increase in sea levels, and frequency of severe droughts
and storms over the next decades.
Human activity has already altered our atmosphere.
Climate change is not a future threat.
It is already happening and is having
a damaging impact on the lives of millions of people.
So we need to take steps now to manage the changes underway
and prepare for the unavoidable changes ahead.
In this tour, I will take you around the globe
to meet the people already struggling
with the impact of climate variability
and change on their lives.
We will explore the implications of continued and accelerated
changes in weather patterns and learn
what steps are needed to adapt to living in a changing
climate.
Over the last 100 years, global average temperatures
have risen almost 1 degree centigrade.
The effects are already being felt around the world.
As far back as 2002, the World Health Organization
estimated that, globally, 150,000 people
were dying each year as a result of climate change.
In the map shown here, the red and orange areas
indicate where most of these deaths are occurring.
This year, the Global Humanitarian Forum, or GHF,
chef led a study that concluded the estimated
annual deaths due to climate change
could now be double this estimate.
The greatest burden of climate change
has been primarily felt by the poor in the less
developed regions of the world.
But as our climate continues to change,
it will affect everyone.
For if global warming continues unabated,
the experts say we could expect temperatures to increase
by as much as another 2 degrees Celsius
over the next few decades, and by twice this amount
by the end of the century.
Over the short term, we are likely to experience
the effects of these changes through increases
in extreme weather-related events,
such as the 2003 European heat wave.
This killed over 30,000 people and was the hottest temperature
on record in Europe.
By mid-century, without action to cut emissions,
the extreme temperatures experienced
in the summer of 2003 are expected
to be the norm in much of Europe.
While many of the most severe impacts in the future
can be avoided by deep reductions in greenhouse gases
through the provision of clean and renewable energy,
substantial continued climate change is unavoidable.
We have already altered the makeup of our atmosphere,
and this will continue until deep cuts in emissions kick in.
We must prepare now for the impact of these changes.
Some 9 million people will go hungry today,
and over a billion live on less than one US dollar per day.
But without significant actions, population growth
and climate change will continue to drive these numbers up.
Rising temperatures are already leading
to shortened growing seasons in some regions
and affecting where crops can be grown successfully.
In much of the developed world, climate projections
indicate that the area of land suitable for cereal production
is likely to increase.
In contrast, most less developed nations,
countries which already suffer from lack of food,
will see a reduction in the amount of land
suitable to grow basic grains.
Rising temperatures and decreasing access to water
will cut yields in many regions.
Within the next decade alone, yields in some African nations
could be reduced by as much as 50%.
To reduce the impact of climate change
on food security over the coming decades,
we need in the short term to help the farmers and countries
most affected to adapt.
Some adaptation strategies are relatively
quick and inexpensive to implement,
such as shifting the timing of planting or switching
crop varieties.
But others often the most effective in the long run
will need considerable extra time and funding.
These include the research and development of new crop
varieties, the expansion of irrigation,
and the improvement of soil quality.
These are the types of issues we are urgently
addressing at the Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa,
AGRA.
At AGRA, we work with small farmers
and public and private institutions
to increase productivity in a sustainable way.
So we are working with communities
to rebuild depleted erosion prone soil,
conserve crop biodiversity, and efficiently use limited water
supply.
Average sea level is expected to rise
as much as one meter or more over the coming century,
but there are fears that sustained
warming of 2 to 3 degrees could spark the destabilization
of the ice sheets.
This could eventually see sea levels rising by anything
between 3 to 12 meters.
These projections are of very real concern
to the populations in places like Bangladesh and Tuvalu,
where much of the land stands at most one meter above sea level.
Here, you can see the devastating implication
of a four meter sea level rise, which would inundate virtually
all of the Bangladesh regions.
These communities are already struggling
to cope with frequent floods and cyclones.
In Bangladesh alone, research for the GHF
found that nearly 70 million people
have been affected over the last eight years
by tropical cyclones and flooding.
Faced with these increasing threats to infrastructure,
agriculture, and health, coastal communities
are beginning to put in place measures to help them adapt.
For example, critical to combat an increasing
weather-related threats is better early warning
and rapid response systems.
In Bangladesh, engineers at the Center for Environmental
and Geographical Information Services
are developing storm early warning systems
that can be sent out via text message
to cell phones, which are now widespread, even
in remote villages.
These are the sort of practical measures
which need the support of the international community.
Over the last 30 years, it has been
estimated that the area of land which
has experienced severe drought has nearly doubled.
This puts increased pressure on farmers, human health,
and ecosystems alike.
Here, the areas in red show where
drought has been most severe between the 1870s and 2000.
The blues and purples on this map show
increased runoff over the coming century, through to the 2080s,
while the reds and oranges show decreased water runoff.
If we continue our high emissions path, as much as 2/3
of the water basins across the globe
are expected to experience increased water
stress by mid-century.
On this map, the green areas indicate
where water availability is expected
to increase, and red areas where reductions in water
availability are predicted.
At the same time, water stressed regions
will be further aggravated by increased demand from a growing
population.
Among the most vulnerable regions
are those where water supply is currently provided largely
through melting snow or ice.
As temperatures rise, more precipitation
will fall as rain instead of snow,
and the snow that does fall will melt earlier in the spring.
The result will be a decline in river flows and water supply
during the summer and autumn, when demand is highest.
And given that some 1/6 of the Earth's population
relies on glaciers and seasonal snow packs
for their water supply, the scale and severity
of the threat to everyday life is great.
As well as decisive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions,
we need to help communities and countries prepare
for the changes in water supply which can't be avoided.
Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns
are having an impact on health challenges.
One growing threat is the spread of infectious diseases
to new areas and new populations.
Watch as this animation illustrates
the potential expansion from today
to the 2080s of lands with climates
suitable for dengue fever transmission.
To address the rise in risk from climate-sensitive diseases
such as dengue, malaria, and Rift Valley fever,
we need the climate experts to work together
with the public health community.
Weather forecasts can provide important early warning
of diseases and enable steps to be
taken to protect populations.
Effective early warning of health and other risks
needs the comprehensive and accurate monitoring
of climate and weather.
But in many regions of the developing world,
weather and other on the ground monitoring systems are limited.
For this reason, the GHF initiated the Weather Info
for All Program to install 5,000 automatic weather stations
across the African continent.
They will send raw weather data to
national meteorological services, who,
in partnership with wireless service providers,
can deliver more accurate forecasts and early warnings
to health workers, farmers, fishermen,
and local communities.
The challenges ahead of us are large and the stakes are high.
Climate change is a fundamental threat
to our individual and human security.
It is also a question of justice.
The world's poorest populations, who
are contributing least to causing the problem,
are suffering the most.
We need a global contract to protect
the lives and livelihoods of people
in all regions of the world.
To avoid the most severe impacts of climate change,
we must reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050.
We must also take the steps needed
to protect people, communities, and economies
from the unavoidable changes in our climate.
Wealthier countries must help the least developed nations
through the transfer of funds, technology, and knowledge.
We need to harness our incredible ingenuity
across the globe, and remember that building
a sustainable and fairer world will also bring
a wealth of opportunities.
All this will need strong collaboration and cooperation
right across our global society.
I have been working on the Tck, tck, tck and Time
for Climate Justice campaign.
We all need to raise awareness about what is at stake,
the need for urgent action, and the vital importance
of everyone getting involved.
The Earth does not belong to one generation,
yet our decisions and actions today
will have an impact on our planet
long beyond the lives of our children and grandchildren.
We dare not let future generations down,
but we should also have confidence that together we
can rise to the challenge.