﻿Could Ethiopia Split into Two? The Tigray War.
Ethiopia has a lengthy and illustrious history similar to that of many other African countries.
Ethiopia, one of the world's oldest countries, was one of the world's first Christian states,
with its capital in the former kingdom of Aksum. Ethiopia emerged into the global scene in the 19th
and early 20th centuries as European powers started to conquer interior Africa following
a decisive victory over colonial Italy in the 18 96 Battle of Adwa. Ethiopia still remains
one of the only African countries to have never been colonized. Ethiopia has experienced severe
problems despite being viewed as the epicenter of African prosperity and unification. Conflict
erupted in the Ethiopian region of Tigray after the ancient monarchy came to an end
with the killing of Emperor Haile Selassie II and the installation of a new military regime.
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Now, where were we? Following the end of World War II, Ethiopia emerged as a significant proponent of
the decolonization of Africa. Ethiopia was admitted to the League of Nations and the
United Nations by Haile Selassie I, the emperor of Ethiopia from 19 30 until his death in 19 74.
With the founding of the Organization for African Unity, currently known as the African Union,
he also turned Addis Abeba into the hub of international collaboration in
African affairs. Ethiopia has experienced severe problems despite being viewed as
the epicenter of African prosperity and unification. Conflict erupted
in the Ethiopian region of Tigray after the ancient monarchy came to an end with
the killing of Emperor Haile Selassie II and the installation of a new military regime.
In 19 75, the region started a struggle with Ethiopia's new government that lasted for decades.
This conflict started with the formation of the Tigray People's Liberation Front
or popularly known as the TPLF. Northern Ethiopia's Tigray region has historically
maintained a predominately agrarian population, with locals cultivating products like cereals,
legumes, coffee, and cotton. The majority of ethnically Tigrayan people today belong to the
Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church, which has its headquarters in Addis Abeba. The Tigray people,
who make up about 10% of the population of contemporary Ethiopia and 50% of the population
of Ethiopia's northern neighbor Eritrea, are known to have descended from Semitic peoples. Although
the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups which together make up about 60% of Ethiopia's total population
and the Tigray people share many cultural and religious similarities, linguistic differences and
political rivalry have led to numerous conflicts between the Tigray people and
the central Ethiopian government, including the war that started in November of 20 20.
There have been thousands, if not tens of thousands, of losses on the battlefield during
the two-year fight in Ethiopia between the Tigray People's Liberation Front and its allies and the
Ethiopian government. Serious violations of human rights have been committed by all
fighting parties. In the tremendous humanitarian disaster brought on by the conflict, 5.2 million
people in Ethiopia's north have gone without food and essentials for a year because the government
tried to choke the Tigray area on purpose, and violence prevented relief from getting to them.
In the Amhara and Afar regions, hundreds of thousands have been displaced and have suffered.
The stability of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea regions is threatened by the war's
continued entanglement of surrounding nations. However, despite active diplomatic efforts,
notably those of the United States, the African Union, and European nations,
the conflict dynamics have been mostly determined by the conditions on the battlefield.
Human rights allegations against Ahmed's government circulate as the crisis rages on.
According to several reports, Tigray's special forces have attacked civilians numerous times.
Devastation spread throughout the Tigray region, and despite a unilateral ceasefire ordered by the
Ethiopian government on June 28, 20 21, it has been estimated that as of December 20 21, up
to 400,000 people may be living in "famine-like" conditions within Tigray. Between October 2020 and
June 20 21, Tigray was the site of a significant number of human rights violations, including
"extrajudicial killings, torture, pillaging, sexual and gender-based violence, and the forcible
displacement of civilians," according to a report from the UN Office of the High Commissioner.
Over two million people have been displaced by the violence in Tigray, and up to "nine out of ten
individuals" in the area now require humanitarian aid. The region is experiencing a growing water
shortage, which has been made worse by the thousands of refugees who have fled to Sudan.
Ethiopia has been attempting to move away from three decades of authoritarian rule by the
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front or the EPRDF, which was dominated by the Tigray
ethnic minority, since 20 18, which has led to an increase in ethnic tensions and competition over
state resources and power. Abiy, an Oromo who was elected prime minister in 20 18, fought to quell
long-suppressed ethnic groups' resentments and calls for more rapid economic redistribution.
Abiy reacted with dictatorial methods and a combative stance toward Tigray
political leaders, attempting to prosecute them for EPRDF crimes,
while tensions led to ethnic violence, murders, and internal displacement. Leaders
in Tigray then began to undermine Abiy's administration. Tigray leaders disobeyed
Abiy's directives and held elections on September 20 20 after he unilaterally delayed Ethiopia's
August 20 20 elections using the COVID-19 outbreak as an excuse. Tigray leaders seized
regional military storage facilities because of concern for the federal government's retaliation.
Abiy responded with military force and solicited the aid of Eritrea, a longtime foe of the TPLF,
in the hopes of swiftly defeating the organization and sending a clear deterrence message to other
ethnic groups. The two main warring sides in the Tigray conflict have had huge military fortune
reversals since November 20 20. Despite early ENDF or the Ethiopian National Defence Force victories,
the strong Tigray forces grew stronger. The Tigray insurgency was made more entrenched
by the ENDF and Eritrean forces' severe human rights violations against the populace of Tigray.
The ENDF were defeated in Tigray by June 20 21, and Abiy ordered them to depart while
announcing an unofficial ceasefire. On August 5, however, Tigrayan soldiers quickly advanced into
the neighboring Afar and Amhara, taking the significant and ancient town of Lalibela. In
order to break Addis Ababa's crippling embargo of Tigray, Tigray forces attempted to seize a crucial
logistical artery in Afar, running from landlocked Ethiopia to Djibouti. In the summer and fall of
20 21, Tigray forces swept through Amhara and advanced toward Addis Ababa despite Abiy's risky
decision to organize anti-Tigray militias across the nation. The Tigrayan uprising seemed to be
approaching the capital by early November, and the survival of the government seemed in jeopardy.
The TPLF leadership demanded the establishment of a transitional government, Abiy's resignation,
and the restoration of Amhara-occupied Tigray territories, much like Abiy had done before.
However, the ENDF stopped the assault and pushed Tigray soldiers out of Amhara and the majority of
Afar by acquiring drones from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran and bombarding them from
the air. The drone purchases were made against heavy opposition from the US, which was upset
that Iran, a former US adversary, was selling weapons to Turkey, a NATO ally of the US,
and worried about civilian casualties and Turkey's more rebellious and loose-cannon behavior.
The crisis drew extensive international diplomacy from the United States and numerous European and
African nations, notably Kenya, in addition to the contentious military backing for the
Ethiopian government. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo was named as
the African Union's high representative, while renowned and experienced diplomat and Brookings
colleague Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman was named as Washington's special envoy for the Horn of Africa.
Since November 2020, these numerous initiatives to facilitate talks between the Ethiopian government
and the TPLF have focused on a number of the same components: a thorough cease-fire.
Unhindered humanitarian access, inclusive peace talks about just power distribution in Ethiopia,
the return of the ENDF, Tigray, Amhara, and Afar warring parties and affiliated
militias to their original territory, and the removal of Eritrean soldiers from Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian government and the Tigray forces, however, remained essentially non-responsive
despite the intense international engagement, each seeking to press for a temporary military
advantage, if not the outright military defeat of the opponent, before engaging in negotiations
or making any concessions. The Ethiopian government has grown increasingly estranged
from the United States despite Washington's years of patronizing the EPRDF regime and
supporting it as a crucial counterterrorism ally in Somalia and the Horn of Africa.
This is because of Washington's criticism of and tougher responses to the government's involvement
in the Tigray humanitarian catastrophe. The United States launched a smart sanctions
regime in September 2021 that targeted a broad range of actors, with the exception
of humanitarian aid, such as officials of the Ethiopian government, Tigray and Amhara leaders,
and Eritrean soldiers. In order to encourage humanitarian access and internal discussions,
sanctions against the Eritrean forces were put into effect while those against other forces were
postponed. Furthermore, because certification is statutorily tied to human rights compliance,
Ethiopia's eligibility for duty-free imports under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity
Act or the AGOA was put in jeopardy. The AGOA provided Ethiopia with roughly
100 million dollars in hard currency per year and 100,000 to 200,000 jobs, most of which went
to southern Ethiopian women working in textile industries. The sanctions regime and diplomatic
engagement appeared to be having an impact in the late fall. Médecins Sans Frontières'
humanitarian work license was finally reinstated by the Ethiopian government in November, but the
Norwegian Refugee Council was still denied access to it. Abiy stopped ENDF forces from advancing
near the borders of Tigray on December 21st 20 21, but airstrikes continued into January 20 22,
resulting in civilian fatalities. Access to humanitarian aid is still restricted
under these dire circumstances. The Abiy administration, which was reelected in the fall,
made a campaign promise to create a commission for national discourse, and parliament in Ethiopia
approved its creation on December 30rd 20 21. The warring parties in Ethiopia have been
urged by UN Secretary-General António Guterres and other diplomats to take advantage of the
situation and initiate peace talks with the help of international mediators, such as Obasanjo.
Even if it is crucial to continue the international mediation efforts,
there are troubling indications. The TPLF and its military affiliate, the Oromo Liberation Army,
are both considered terrorist organizations by the Ethiopian government, making the
national dialogue commission's exclusion of them the most important among them.
Furthermore, the Ethiopian government may have taken its many wildly insufficient actions
primarily to prevent Ethiopia from being expelled from AGOA. However, the United States did withdraw
Ethiopia from the trade program on January 1st 20 22. Indirect rumors that the Ethiopian government
would be ready to begin talks with the TPLF started to spread towards the end of January.
Even if those rumors are true, it's unclear what Addis Abeba will desire beyond TPLF
leaders being severely punished and a victor's peace, which would prevent any negotiations.
While the horrific suffering of people in northern Ethiopia continues,
the insurgency may well resuscitate itself in the Tigray region, returning the nation
to the situation of March to April 20 21. Without providing a time or location,
the Ethiopian government declared on Wednesday 10th October 20 22 that it had accepted an
invitation from the African Union to hold peace talks with rebels in the northern Tigray region.
"An invitation for peace talks has been made by the African Union. In keeping with our fundamental
stance on the need for negotiations without obstacles and the necessity for a peaceful
resolution of the conflict, the government of Ethiopia has accepted this invitation
"The National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Redwan Hussein, stated in a tweet.
The Ethiopian Government Communication Service or GCS claimed in a statement
that the AU had only mentioned the date and location of the talks in its invitation.
The rebel authorities in Tigray, who are at odds with the federal government of Ethiopia,
did not immediately reply when questioned by AFP about the invitation. According to Ebba Kalondo,
spokesman for AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki, "We will communicate the information at the
proper time, in consultation with the parties." The scheduled discussions between Tigray and
Ethiopia will be the most serious attempt to resolve the war between the two countries ever
if Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, attends. No information
regarding the attendees, including if the adjacent Eritrean nation has been invited, has yet to be
made public. Tiger rebels have always stated that Asmara will not be permitted to attend any talks.
According to a diplomatic source, the AU has formed a troika of mediators
consisting of former South African Vice President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka,
former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, and former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo the group's
special envoy to the Horn of Africa. Fighting resumed on August 24 in northern Ethiopia between
Tigrayan rebels and the federal Ethiopian army, supported by forces from the Tigray
border areas and Eritrea, following a five-month truce that sparked hopes for peace negotiations.
After a previous trip to the area in September, U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike
Hammer returned on October 3 to assist in the beginning of peace talks under the auspices of
the African Union and "achieve an immediate cease of hostilities in northern Ethiopia."
The 20 19 Nobel Peace Prize, which Prime Minister Ahmed received for "his efforts to create peace
and international collaboration, and especially for his decisive move to resolve the border
issue with neighboring Eritrea," has also been called into question by several human rights
activists. In addition to frequently appearing on the front lines as a battlefield commander,
Ahmed has played an especially active role in the conflict. He has also been accused of
leveraging the peace agreement he mediated with Eritrea to more effectively conquer
Tigray. Human rights watchers are optimistic that the United Nations will be able to find
a peaceful solution to the conflict in Tigray as it continues to violate those rights there.
The Ethiopian government should finally permit unrestricted humanitarian access to Tigray and
release the numerous Tigray and Oromo detained around Ethiopia just because of their ethnicity
in order to show that it truly wants an inclusive peace. The release of several detained opposition
lawmakers by Abiy in January is a positive first step, but it is insufficient. Moving away from the
Abiy administration's punitive counterterrorism paradigm and including transitional justice with
leniency and inclusivity for both TPLF leaders and Tigray fighters are a must for any fruitful
dialogue. The Abiy government and its Amhara backers will demand that the Tigray troops be
disbanded, but even if this is done with effective international assistance for disarmament,
demobilization, and reintegration operations, the Tigray would find this to be very distasteful.
In other words, future discussions won't be simple or quick, and they might fail again.
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